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The Future Prospects of Energy Technologies: Insights from Expert Elicitations

Author

Listed:
  • Elena Verdolini

    (CMCC and FEEM)

  • Laura Diaz Anadón

    (John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University and University College London)

  • Erin Baker

    (University of Massachusetts Amherst)

  • Valentina Bosetti

    (CMCC, FEEM and Bocconi University)

  • Lara Aleluia Reis

    (CMCC and FEEM)

Abstract

Expert elicitation is a process for eliciting subjective probability distributions from experts about items of interest to decision makers. These methods have been increasingly applied in the energy domain to collect information on the future cost and performance of specific energy technologies and the associated uncertainty. This article reviews the existing expert elicitations on energy technologies with three main objectives: (1) to provide insights on expert elicitation methods and how they compare/complement other approaches to inform public energy decision making; (2) to review all recent elicitation exercises about future technology costs; and (3) to discuss the main results from these expert elicitations, in terms of implied rates of cost reduction and the role of R&D investments in shaping these reductions, and compare it with insights from backward looking approaches. We argue that the emergence of data on future energy costs through expert elicitations provides the opportunity for more transparent and robust analyses incorporating technical uncertainty to assess energy and climate change mitigation policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Elena Verdolini & Laura Diaz Anadón & Erin Baker & Valentina Bosetti & Lara Aleluia Reis, 2016. "The Future Prospects of Energy Technologies: Insights from Expert Elicitations," Working Papers 2016.47, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  • Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2016.47
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Small, Mitchell J. & Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle & Kefford, Benjamin M. & Stringer, Martin & Schmeda-Lopez, Diego R. & Greig, Chris & Ballinger, Benjamin & Wilson, Stephen & Smart, Simon, 2019. "Generating linked technology-socioeconomic scenarios for emerging energy transitions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 1402-1423.
    2. Elena Verdolini & Laura Díaz Anadón & Erin Baker & Valentina Bosetti & Lara Aleluia Reis, 2018. "Future Prospects for Energy Technologies: Insights from Expert Elicitations," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(1), pages 133-153.
    3. Hiroto Shiraki & Masahiro Sugiyama, 2020. "Back to the basic: toward improvement of technoeconomic representation in integrated assessment models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(1), pages 13-24, September.
    4. David Popp, 2019. "Environmental policy and innovation: a decade of research," CESifo Working Paper Series 7544, CESifo.
    5. Brozynski, Max T. & Leibowicz, Benjamin D., 2020. "Markov models of policy support for technology transitions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 286(3), pages 1052-1069.
    6. Kostas Fragkiadakis & Panagiotis Fragkos & Leonidas Paroussos, 2020. "Low-Carbon R&D Can Boost EU Growth and Competitiveness," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 13(19), pages 1-29, October.
    7. Haris Doukas & Alexandros Nikas & Mikel González-Eguino & Iñaki Arto & Annela Anger-Kraavi, 2018. "From Integrated to Integrative: Delivering on the Paris Agreement," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(7), pages 1-10, July.
    8. Polzin, Friedemann & Sanders, Mark, 2020. "How to finance the transition to low-carbon energy in Europe?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy Technologies; R&D Investments; Expert Elicitations; Uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics
    • Q55 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Technological Innovation

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