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Energy technology expert elicitations: An application to natural gas turbine efficiencies

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  • Bistline, John E.

Abstract

Expert elicitations are critical tools for characterizing technological uncertainty, since historical data on technical progress may not provide a sufficient basis for forecasting future advances. The objectives of this paper are to describe the protocol and results for an expert elicitation on the future performance of gas-turbine-based technologies in the electric power sector and to discuss how these insights relate to the current elicitation literature in energy modeling. Elicitation results suggest that prospective efficiency gains are likely to be slower than historical trends; however, the assessed values are still appreciably higher than the efficiencies used in many energy models. The results also indicate that conducting face-to-face elicitations may be important for minimizing overconfidence and for critically examining reported values, especially when assessing non-central probabilities in the tails of a distribution.

Suggested Citation

  • Bistline, John E., 2014. "Energy technology expert elicitations: An application to natural gas turbine efficiencies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 177-187.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:86:y:2014:i:c:p:177-187
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.11.003
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bistline, John E., 2016. "Energy technology R&D portfolio management: Modeling uncertain returns and market diffusion," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 1181-1196.
    2. repec:oup:renvpo:v:12:y:2018:i:1:p:133-153. is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Elena Verdolini & Laura Díaz Anadón & Erin Baker & Valentina Bosetti & Lara Aleluia Reis, 2018. "Future Prospects for Energy Technologies: Insights from Expert Elicitations," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(1), pages 133-153.
    4. Bistline, John E., 2014. "Natural gas, uncertainty, and climate policy in the US electric power sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 433-442.
    5. Bistline, John E. & Comello, Stephen D. & Sahoo, Anshuman, 2018. "Managerial flexibility in levelized cost measures: A framework for incorporating uncertainty in energy investment decisions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 211-225.
    6. Bistline, John E., 2015. "Electric sector capacity planning under uncertainty: Climate policy and natural gas in the US," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 236-251.
    7. Kurth, Margaret & Keisler, Jeffrey M. & Bates, Matthew E. & Bridges, Todd S. & Summers, Jeffrey & Linkov, Igor, 2017. "A portfolio decision analysis approach to support energy research and development resource allocation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 128-135.

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