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The Future Prospects of Energy Technologies: Insights from Expert Elicitations

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  • Verdolini, Elena
  • Anadón, Laura Diaz
  • Baker, Erin
  • Bosetti, Valentina
  • Reis, Lara Aleluia

Abstract

Expert elicitation is a process for eliciting subjective probability distributions from experts about items of interest to decision makers. These methods have been increasingly applied in the energy domain to collect information on the future cost and performance of specific energy technologies and the associated uncertainty. This article reviews the existing expert elicitations on energy technologies with three main objectives: (1) to provide insights on expert elicitation methods and how they compare/complement other approaches to inform public energy decision making; (2) to review all recent elicitation exercises about future technology costs; and (3) to discuss the main results from these expert elicitations, in terms of implied rates of cost reduction and the role of R&D investments in shaping these reductions, and compare it with insights from backward looking approaches. We argue that the emergence of data on future energy costs through expert elicitations provides the opportunity for more transparent and robust analyses incorporating technical uncertainty to assess energy and climate change mitigation policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Verdolini, Elena & Anadón, Laura Diaz & Baker, Erin & Bosetti, Valentina & Reis, Lara Aleluia, 2016. "The Future Prospects of Energy Technologies: Insights from Expert Elicitations," MITP: Mitigation, Innovation and Transformation Pathways 243148, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:feemmi:243148
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.243148
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    File URL: http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/243148/files/NDL2016-047.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Elena Verdolini & Laura Díaz Anadón & Erin Baker & Valentina Bosetti & Lara Aleluia Reis, 2018. "Future Prospects for Energy Technologies: Insights from Expert Elicitations," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(1), pages 133-153.
    2. David Popp, 2019. "Environmental policy and innovation: a decade of research," CESifo Working Paper Series 7544, CESifo Group Munich.
    3. Haris Doukas & Alexandros Nikas & Mikel González-Eguino & Iñaki Arto & Annela Anger-Kraavi, 2018. "From Integrated to Integrative: Delivering on the Paris Agreement," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(7), pages 1-10, July.
    4. Small, Mitchell J. & Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle & Kefford, Benjamin M. & Stringer, Martin & Schmeda-Lopez, Diego R. & Greig, Chris & Ballinger, Benjamin & Wilson, Stephen & Smart, Simon, 2019. "Generating linked technology-socioeconomic scenarios for emerging energy transitions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 1402-1423.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies;

    JEL classification:

    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics
    • Q55 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Technological Innovation

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