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Advanced Biofuels: Future Perspectives from an Expert Elicitation Survey

Author

Listed:
  • Giulia Fiorese

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and Dipartimento di Elettronica e Informazione, Politecnico di Milano)

  • Michela Catenacci

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei)

  • Elena Verdolini

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei)

  • Valentina Bosetti

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici)

Abstract

This paper illustrates the main results of an expert elicitation survey on advanced (second and third generation) biofuel technologies. The survey focuses on eliciting probabilistic information on the future costs of advanced biofuels and on the potential role of RD&D (Research, Development and Demonstration) efforts in reducing these costs and in supporting the deployment of biofuels in OECD and non-OECD countries. Fifteen leading experts from different EU member states provide insights on the future potential of advanced biofuel technologies both in terms of costs and diffusion. This information results in a number of policy recommendations with respect to public RD&D strategies and is an important contribution to the integrated assessment modelling community.

Suggested Citation

  • Giulia Fiorese & Michela Catenacci & Elena Verdolini & Valentina Bosetti, 2012. "Advanced Biofuels: Future Perspectives from an Expert Elicitation Survey," Working Papers 2012.67, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  • Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2012.67
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Baker, Erin & Chon, Haewon & Keisler, Jeffrey, 2009. "Advanced solar R&D: Combining economic analysis with expert elicitations to inform climate policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(Supplemen), pages 37-49.
    2. Bosetti, Valentina & Catenacci, Michela & Fiorese, Giulia & Verdolini, Elena, 2012. "The future prospect of PV and CSP solar technologies: An expert elicitation survey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 308-317.
    3. Hamelinck, Carlo N & Faaij, Andre P.C., 2006. "Outlook for advanced biofuels," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 3268-3283, November.
    4. Rathmann, Régis & Szklo, Alexandre & Schaeffer, Roberto, 2010. "Land use competition for production of food and liquid biofuels: An analysis of the arguments in the current debate," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 14-22.
    5. Sorda, Giovanni & Banse, Martin & Kemfert, Claudia, 2010. "An overview of biofuel policies across the world," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 6977-6988, November.
    6. Carlo Giupponi & R. Camera & A. Fassio & A. Lasut & J. Mysiak & A. Sgobbi, 2006. "Network Analysis, Creative System Modelling and Decision Support: The NetSyMoD Approach," Working Papers 2006.46, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    7. Baker, Erin & Keisler, Jeffrey M., 2011. "Cellulosic biofuels: Expert views on prospects for advancement," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 595-605.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
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    Cited by:

    1. Laura Diaz Anadon & Valentina Bosetti & Gabe Chan & Gregory Nemet & Elena Verdolini, 2014. "Energy Technology Expert Elicitations for Policy: Workshops, Modeling, and Meta-analysis," Working Papers 2014.91, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    2. Erin Baker & Valentina Bosetti & Ahti Salo, 2016. "Finding Common Ground when Experts Disagree: Belief Dominance over Portfolios of Alternatives," Working Papers 2016.46, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    3. Laura Diaz Anadon & Erin Baker & Valentina Bosetti & Lara Aleluia Reis, 2016. "Expert views - and disagreements - about the potential of energy technology R&D," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 136(3), pages 677-691, June.
    4. Verdolini, Elena & Anadón, Laura Diaz & Baker, Erin & Bosetti, Valentina & Reis, Lara Aleluia, 2016. "The Future Prospects of Energy Technologies: Insights from Expert Elicitations," MITP: Mitigation, Innovation,and Transformation Pathways 243148, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    5. Laura Diaz Anadon & Erin Baker & Valentina Bosetti & Lara Aleluia Reis, 2016. "Too Early to Pick Winners: Disagreement across Experts Implies the Need to Diversify R&D Investment," Working Papers 2016.22, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    6. Schillo, R. Sandra & Isabelle, Diane A. & Shakiba, Abtin, 2017. "Linking advanced biofuels policies with stakeholder interests: A method building on Quality Function Deployment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 126-137.
    7. JunJie Wu & Christian Langpap, 2015. "The Price and Welfare Effects of Biofuel Mandates and Subsidies," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 62(1), pages 35-57, September.
    8. Bistline, John E., 2014. "Energy technology expert elicitations: An application to natural gas turbine efficiencies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 177-187.
    9. Catenacci, Michela & Verdolini, Elena & Bosetti, Valentina & Fiorese, Giulia, 2013. "Going electric: Expert survey on the future of battery technologies for electric vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 403-413.
    10. Erin Baker & Valentina Bosetti & Karen E. Jenni & Elena Claire Ricci, 2014. "Facing the Experts: Survey Mode and Expert Elicitation," Working Papers 2014.01, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    11. Bosetti, Valentina & Longden, Thomas, 2013. "Light duty vehicle transportation and global climate policy: The importance of electric drive vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 209-219.
    12. Stergios Athanassoglou & Valentina Bosetti, 2015. "Setting Environmental Policy When Experts Disagree," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 61(4), pages 497-516, August.
    13. Fiorese, Giulia & Catenacci, Michela & Bosetti, Valentina & Verdolini, Elena, 2014. "The power of biomass: Experts disclose the potential for success of bioenergy technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, pages 94-114.
    14. Erin Baker & Olaitan Olaleye & Lara Aleluia Reis, 2015. "Decision Frameworks and the Investment in R&D," Working Papers 2015.42, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    15. repec:eee:rensus:v:78:y:2017:i:c:p:503-516 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Baker, Erin & Bosetti, Valentina & Anadon, Laura Diaz & Henrion, Max & Aleluia Reis, Lara, 2015. "Future costs of key low-carbon energy technologies: Harmonization and aggregation of energy technology expert elicitation data," Energy Policy, Elsevier, pages 219-232.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Expert Elicitation; Research; Development and Demonstration; Biofuels;

    JEL classification:

    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q55 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Technological Innovation

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