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Going Electric: Expert Survey on the Future of Battery Technologies for Electric Vehicles

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Listed:
  • Catenacci, Michela
  • Verdolini, Elena
  • Bosetti, Valentina
  • Fiorese, Giulia
  • Ameli, Nadia

Abstract

The paper describes the results of a survey, carried out with leading EU experts, on the capacity of both fully electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles to reach commercial success in the next twenty years. The success of electric transport is hampered by a combination of low range, scarce efficiency and high costs of batteries. Costs are expected to decrease in response to increasing sales volume and technical improvements, and advances would result from adequate investments in research, development and demonstration (RD&D). Experts’ judgements are collected to shed light on the inherently uncertain relationship between RD&D efforts and consequent technical progress, and to assess the complex dynamics that will hinder or support the widespread diffusion of electric vehicles. The analysis of the experts’ data results in a number of important policy recommendations to guide future RD&D choices and target commitments both for the EU and its member states.

Suggested Citation

  • Catenacci, Michela & Verdolini, Elena & Bosetti, Valentina & Fiorese, Giulia & Ameli, Nadia, 2012. "Going Electric: Expert Survey on the Future of Battery Technologies for Electric Vehicles," Climate Change and Sustainable Development 143123, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:feemcl:143123
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.143123
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    File URL: http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/143123/files/NDL2012-093.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fiorese, Giulia & Catenacci, Michela & Verdolini, Elena & Bosetti, Valentina, 2013. "Advanced biofuels: Future perspectives from an expert elicitation survey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 293-311.
    2. Baker, Erin & Chon, Haewon & Keisler, Jeffrey, 2009. "Advanced solar R&D: Combining economic analysis with expert elicitations to inform climate policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(Supplemen), pages 37-49.
    3. Valentina Bosetti & Michela Catenacci & Giulia Fiorese & Elena Verdolini, 2012. "The Future Prospects of PV and CSP Solar Technologies," Review of Environment, Energy and Economics - Re3, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, January.
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    5. Bosetti, Valentina & Catenacci, Michela & Fiorese, Giulia & Verdolini, Elena, 2012. "The future prospect of PV and CSP solar technologies: An expert elicitation survey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 308-317.
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    10. Kenneth J. Arrow, 1962. "The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 29(3), pages 155-173.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies;

    JEL classification:

    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics
    • Q55 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Technological Innovation

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