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Going Electric: Expert Survey on the Future of Battery Technologies for Electric Vehicles

Author

Listed:
  • Michela Catenacci

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei)

  • Elena Verdolini

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici)

  • Valentina Bosetti

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici)

  • Giulia Fiorese

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and Dipartimento di Elettronica e Informazione, Politecnico di Milano)

  • Nadia Ameli

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei)

Abstract

The paper describes the results of a survey, carried out with leading EU experts, on the capacity of both fully electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles to reach commercial success in the next twenty years. The success of electric transport is hampered by a combination of low range, scarce efficiency and high costs of batteries. Costs are expected to decrease in response to increasing sales volume and technical improvements, and advances would result from adequate investments in research, development and demonstration (RD&D). Experts’ judgements are collected to shed light on the inherently uncertain relationship between RD&D efforts and consequent technical progress, and to assess the complex dynamics that will hinder or support the widespread diffusion of electric vehicles. The analysis of the experts’ data results in a number of important policy recommendations to guide future RD&D choices and target commitments both for the EU and its member states.

Suggested Citation

  • Michela Catenacci & Elena Verdolini & Valentina Bosetti & Giulia Fiorese & Nadia Ameli, 2012. "Going Electric: Expert Survey on the Future of Battery Technologies for Electric Vehicles," Working Papers 2012.93, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  • Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2012.93
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Martos, A. & Pacheco-Torres, R. & Ordóñez, J. & Jadraque-Gago, E., 2016. "Towards successful environmental performance of sustainable cities: Intervening sectors. A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 479-495.
    2. repec:eee:enepol:v:115:y:2018:i:c:p:54-65 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Laura Diaz Anadon & Valentina Bosetti & Gabe Chan & Gregory Nemet & Elena Verdolini, 2014. "Energy Technology Expert Elicitations for Policy: Workshops, Modeling, and Meta-analysis," Working Papers 2014.91, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    4. Erin Baker & Valentina Bosetti & Ahti Salo, 2016. "Finding Common Ground when Experts Disagree: Belief Dominance over Portfolios of Alternatives," Working Papers 2016.46, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    5. Erin Baker & Olaitan Olaleye & Lara Aleluia Reis, 2015. "Decision Frameworks and the Investment in R&D," Working Papers 2015.42, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    6. Verdolini, Elena & Anadón, Laura Diaz & Baker, Erin & Bosetti, Valentina & Reis, Lara Aleluia, 2016. "The Future Prospects of Energy Technologies: Insights from Expert Elicitations," MITP: Mitigation, Innovation,and Transformation Pathways 243148, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    7. repec:eee:enepol:v:106:y:2017:i:c:p:415-426 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Bosetti, Valentina & Longden, Thomas, 2013. "Light duty vehicle transportation and global climate policy: The importance of electric drive vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 209-219.
    9. Fiorese, Giulia & Catenacci, Michela & Bosetti, Valentina & Verdolini, Elena, 2014. "The power of biomass: Experts disclose the potential for success of bioenergy technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 94-114.
    10. Wu, Geng & Inderbitzin, Alessandro & Bening, Catharina, 2015. "Total cost of ownership of electric vehicles compared to conventional vehicles: A probabilistic analysis and projection across market segments," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 196-214.
    11. Kumar, M. Satyendra & Revankar, Shripad T., 2017. "Development scheme and key technology of an electric vehicle: An overview," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 1266-1285.
    12. Yong, Jia Ying & Ramachandaramurthy, Vigna K. & Tan, Kang Miao & Mithulananthan, N., 2015. "A review on the state-of-the-art technologies of electric vehicle, its impacts and prospects," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 365-385.
    13. repec:oup:renvpo:v:12:y:2018:i:1:p:133-153. is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Baker, Erin & Olaleye, Olaitan & Aleluia Reis, Lara, 2015. "Decision frameworks and the investment in R&D," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 275-285.
    15. Longden, Thomas, 2014. "Travel intensity and climate policy: The influence of different mobility futures on the diffusion of battery integrated vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 219-234.
    16. Noel, Lance & Brodie, Joseph F. & Kempton, Willett & Archer, Cristina L. & Budischak, Cory, 2017. "Cost minimization of generation, storage, and new loads, comparing costs with and without externalities," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 110-121.
    17. Nilsson, Måns & Nykvist, Björn, 2016. "Governing the electric vehicle transition – Near term interventions to support a green energy economy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 1360-1371.
    18. Zucker, Andreas & Hinchliffe, Timothée, 2014. "Optimum sizing of PV-attached electricity storage according to power market signals – A case study for Germany and Italy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 141-155.
    19. repec:eee:rensus:v:82:y:2018:i:p3:p:4179-4203 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. repec:eee:enepol:v:114:y:2018:i:c:p:578-590 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Mahmoud, Moataz & Garnett, Ryan & Ferguson, Mark & Kanaroglou, Pavlos, 2016. "Electric buses: A review of alternative powertrains," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 673-684.
    22. Baker, Erin & Bosetti, Valentina & Anadon, Laura Diaz & Henrion, Max & Aleluia Reis, Lara, 2015. "Future costs of key low-carbon energy technologies: Harmonization and aggregation of energy technology expert elicitation data," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 219-232.
    23. Arslan, Okan & Yıldız, Barış & Ekin Karaşan, Oya, 2014. "Impacts of battery characteristics, driver preferences and road network features on travel costs of a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) for long-distance trips," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 168-178.
    24. Poullikkas, Andreas, 2015. "Sustainable options for electric vehicle technologies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1277-1287.
    25. repec:eee:rensus:v:78:y:2017:i:c:p:414-430 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Expert Elicitation; Battery Technologies; Electric Vehicles;

    JEL classification:

    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics
    • Q55 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Technological Innovation

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