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Going Electric: Expert Survey on the Future of Battery Technologies for Electric Vehicles

  • Michela Catenacci

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei)

  • Elena Verdolini

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici)

  • Valentina Bosetti

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici)

  • Giulia Fiorese

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and Dipartimento di Elettronica e Informazione, Politecnico di Milano)

  • Nadia Ameli

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei)

The paper describes the results of a survey, carried out with leading EU experts, on the capacity of both fully electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles to reach commercial success in the next twenty years. The success of electric transport is hampered by a combination of low range, scarce efficiency and high costs of batteries. Costs are expected to decrease in response to increasing sales volume and technical improvements, and advances would result from adequate investments in research, development and demonstration (RD&D). Experts’ judgements are collected to shed light on the inherently uncertain relationship between RD&D efforts and consequent technical progress, and to assess the complex dynamics that will hinder or support the widespread diffusion of electric vehicles. The analysis of the experts’ data results in a number of important policy recommendations to guide future RD&D choices and target commitments both for the EU and its member states.

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Paper provided by Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei in its series Working Papers with number 2012.93.

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Date of creation: Dec 2012
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Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2012.93
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  1. Baker, Erin & Keisler, Jeffrey M., 2011. "Cellulosic biofuels: Expert views on prospects for advancement," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 595-605.
  2. Valentina Bosetti & Michela Catenacci & Giulia Fiorese & Elena Verdolini, 2012. "The Future Prospect of PV and CSP Solar Technologies: An Expert Elicitation Survey," Working Papers 2012.01, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  3. Giulia Fiorese & Michela Catenacci & Elena Verdolini & Valentina Bosetti, 2012. "Advanced Biofuels: Future Perspectives from an Expert Elicitation Survey," Working Papers 2012.67, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  4. Baker, Erin & Chon, Haewon & Keisler, Jeffrey, 2009. "Advanced solar R&D: Combining economic analysis with expert elicitations to inform climate policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(Supplemen), pages S37-S49.
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