IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v114y2018icp578-590.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Prospective improvements in cost and cycle life of off-grid lithium-ion battery packs: An analysis informed by expert elicitations

Author

Listed:
  • Few, Sheridan
  • Schmidt, Oliver
  • Offer, Gregory J.
  • Brandon, Nigel
  • Nelson, Jenny
  • Gambhir, Ajay

Abstract

This paper presents probabilistic estimates of the 2020 and 2030 cost and cycle life of lithium-ion battery (LiB) packs for off-grid stationary electricity storage made by leading battery experts from academia and industry, and insights on the role of public research and development (R&D) funding and other drivers in determining these. By 2020, experts expect developments to arise chiefly through engineering, manufacturing and incremental chemistry changes, and expect additional R&D funding to have little impact on cost. By 2030, experts indicate that more fundamental chemistry changes are possible, particularly under higher R&D funding scenarios, but are not inevitable. Experts suggest that significant improvements in cycle life (eg. doubling or greater) are more achievable than in cost, particularly by 2020, and that R&D could play a greater role in driving these. Experts expressed some concern, but had relatively little knowledge, of the environmental impact of LiBs. Analysis is conducted of the implications of prospective LiB improvements for the competitiveness of solar photovoltaic + LiB systems for off-grid electrification.

Suggested Citation

  • Few, Sheridan & Schmidt, Oliver & Offer, Gregory J. & Brandon, Nigel & Nelson, Jenny & Gambhir, Ajay, 2018. "Prospective improvements in cost and cycle life of off-grid lithium-ion battery packs: An analysis informed by expert elicitations," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 578-590.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:114:y:2018:i:c:p:578-590
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2017.12.033
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421517308595
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2017.12.033?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Catenacci, Michela & Verdolini, Elena & Bosetti, Valentina & Fiorese, Giulia, 2013. "Going electric: Expert survey on the future of battery technologies for electric vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 403-413.
    2. Kahouli-Brahmi, Sondes, 2008. "Technological learning in energy-environment-economy modelling: A survey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 138-162, January.
    3. Bosetti, Valentina & Catenacci, Michela & Fiorese, Giulia & Verdolini, Elena, 2012. "The future prospect of PV and CSP solar technologies: An expert elicitation survey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 308-317.
    4. Béla Nagy & J Doyne Farmer & Quan M Bui & Jessika E Trancik, 2013. "Statistical Basis for Predicting Technological Progress," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(2), pages 1-7, February.
    5. Laura Diaz Anadon & Erin Baker & Valentina Bosetti & Lara Aleluia Reis, 2016. "Expert views - and disagreements - about the potential of energy technology R&D," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 136(3), pages 677-691, June.
    6. K. J. Arrow, 1971. "The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: F. H. Hahn (ed.), Readings in the Theory of Growth, chapter 11, pages 131-149, Palgrave Macmillan.
    7. Björn Nykvist & Måns Nilsson, 2015. "Rapidly falling costs of battery packs for electric vehicles," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(4), pages 329-332, April.
    8. Fiorese, Giulia & Catenacci, Michela & Bosetti, Valentina & Verdolini, Elena, 2014. "The power of biomass: Experts disclose the potential for success of bioenergy technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 94-114.
    9. Valentina Bosetti & Michela Catenacci & Giulia Fiorese & Elena Verdolini, 2012. "The Future Prospects of PV and CSP Solar Technologies," Review of Environment, Energy and Economics - Re3, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, January.
    10. Baker, Erin & Bosetti, Valentina & Anadon, Laura Diaz & Henrion, Max & Aleluia Reis, Lara, 2015. "Future costs of key low-carbon energy technologies: Harmonization and aggregation of energy technology expert elicitation data," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 219-232.
    11. Gregory F. Nemet & Erin Baker, 2009. "Demand Subsidies Versus R&D: Comparing the Uncertain Impacts of Policy on a Pre-commercial Low-carbon Energy Technology," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 49-80.
    12. Troy R. Hawkins & Bhawna Singh & Guillaume Majeau‐Bettez & Anders Hammer Strømman, 2013. "Comparative Environmental Life Cycle Assessment of Conventional and Electric Vehicles," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 17(1), pages 53-64, February.
    13. Rubin, Edward S. & Azevedo, Inês M.L. & Jaramillo, Paulina & Yeh, Sonia, 2015. "A review of learning rates for electricity supply technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 198-218.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Donato A. Melchiorre. & Sinan Küfeoglu, 2018. "Economic Assessment of Using Electric Vehicles and Batteries as Domestic Storage Units in the United Kingdom," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1858, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Hoarau, Quentin & Lorang, Etienne, 2022. "An assessment of the European regulation on battery recycling for electric vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    3. Parlikar, Anupam & Truong, Cong Nam & Jossen, Andreas & Hesse, Holger, 2021. "The carbon footprint of island grids with lithium-ion battery systems: An analysis based on levelized emissions of energy supply," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    4. Nelson, James R. & Johnson, Nathan G., 2020. "Model predictive control of microgrids for real-time ancillary service market participation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    5. Gruetzemacher, Ross & Paradice, David & Lee, Kang Bok, 2020. "Forecasting extreme labor displacement: A survey of AI practitioners," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    6. Andreolli, Francesca & D'Alpaos, Chiara & Kort, Peter, 2023. "Does P2P Trading Favor Investments in PV-Battery Systems?," FEEM Working Papers 330498, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    7. Han, Xuejiao & Garrison, Jared & Hug, Gabriela, 2022. "Techno-economic analysis of PV-battery systems in Switzerland," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    8. Andreolli, Francesca & D’Alpaos, Chiara & Moretto, Michele, 2022. "Valuing investments in domestic PV-Battery Systems under uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    9. Yana Buravleva & Decai Tang & Brandon J. Bethel, 2021. "Incentivizing Innovation: The Causal Role of Government Subsidies on Lithium-Ion Battery Research and Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-16, July.
    10. Jie Yang & Fu Gu & Jianfeng Guo & Bin Chen, 2019. "Comparative Life Cycle Assessment of Mobile Power Banks with Lithium-Ion Battery and Lithium-Ion Polymer Battery," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-24, September.
    11. Al-Ghussain, Loiy & Darwish Ahmad, Adnan & Abubaker, Ahmad M. & Hassan, Muhammed A., 2022. "Techno-economic feasibility of thermal storage systems for the transition to 100% renewable grids," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 800-812.
    12. Mostafa Farrokhabadi, 2019. "Data-Driven Mitigation of Energy Scheduling Inaccuracy in Renewable-Penetrated Grids: Summerside Electric Use Case," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-23, June.
    13. Brozynski, Max T. & Leibowicz, Benjamin D., 2020. "Markov models of policy support for technology transitions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 286(3), pages 1052-1069.
    14. Thomassen, Gwenny & Van Passel, Steven & Dewulf, Jo, 2020. "A review on learning effects in prospective technology assessment," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    15. F. Degen & M. Winter & D. Bendig & J. Tübke, 2023. "Energy consumption of current and future production of lithium-ion and post lithium-ion battery cells," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 8(11), pages 1284-1295, November.
    16. Pugach, M. & Vyshinsky, V. & Bischi, A., 2019. "Energy efficiency analysis for a kilo-watt class vanadium redox flow battery system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    17. Francesca Andreolli & Chiara D'Alpaos & Peter Kort, 2023. "Does P2P Trading Favor Investments in PV-Battery Systems?," Working Papers 2023.02, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    18. Jesús Muñoz-Cruzado-Alba & Rossano Musca & Javier Ballestín-Fuertes & José F. Sanz-Osorio & David Miguel Rivas-Ascaso & Michael P. Jones & Angelo Catania & Emil Goosen, 2021. "Power Grid Integration and Use-Case Study of Acid-Base Flow Battery Technology," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-27, May.
    19. Ahmed Gailani & Tracey Crosbie & Maher Al-Greer & Michael Short & Nashwan Dawood, 2020. "On the Role of Regulatory Policy on the Business Case for Energy Storage in Both EU and UK Energy Systems: Barriers and Enablers," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-20, March.
    20. DiOrio, Nicholas & Denholm, Paul & Hobbs, William B., 2020. "A model for evaluating the configuration and dispatch of PV plus battery power plants," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Baker, Erin & Bosetti, Valentina & Anadon, Laura Diaz & Henrion, Max & Aleluia Reis, Lara, 2015. "Future costs of key low-carbon energy technologies: Harmonization and aggregation of energy technology expert elicitation data," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 219-232.
    2. Baker, Erin & Bosetti, Valentina & Salo, Ahti, 2016. "Finding Common Ground when Experts Disagree: Belief Dominance over Portfolios of Alternatives," MITP: Mitigation, Innovation and Transformation Pathways 243147, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    3. Erin Baker & Olaitan Olaleye & Lara Aleluia Reis, 2015. "Decision Frameworks and the Investment in R&D," Working Papers 2015.42, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    4. Elena Verdolini & Laura Díaz Anadón & Erin Baker & Valentina Bosetti & Lara Aleluia Reis, 2018. "Future Prospects for Energy Technologies: Insights from Expert Elicitations," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(1), pages 133-153.
    5. Farmer, J. Doyne & Lafond, François, 2016. "How predictable is technological progress?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 647-665.
    6. De Cian, Enrica & Buhl, Johannes & Carrara, Samuel & Michela Bevione, Michela & Monetti, Silvia & Berg, Holger, 2016. "Knowledge Creation between Integrated Assessment Models and Initiative-Based Learning - An Interdisciplinary Approach," MITP: Mitigation, Innovation and Transformation Pathways 249784, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    7. Reinhard Haas & Marlene Sayer & Amela Ajanovic & Hans Auer, 2023. "Technological learning: Lessons learned on energy technologies," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(2), March.
    8. Shayegh, Soheil & Sanchez, Daniel L. & Caldeira, Ken, 2017. "Evaluating relative benefits of different types of R&D for clean energy technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 532-538.
    9. Verdolini, Elena & Anadon, Laura Diaz & Lu, Jiaqi & Nemet, Gregory F., 2015. "The effects of expert selection, elicitation design, and R&D assumptions on experts' estimates of the future costs of photovoltaics," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 233-243.
    10. Santhakumar, Srinivasan & Meerman, Hans & Faaij, André, 2021. "Improving the analytical framework for quantifying technological progress in energy technologies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    11. Lafond, François & Bailey, Aimee Gotway & Bakker, Jan David & Rebois, Dylan & Zadourian, Rubina & McSharry, Patrick & Farmer, J. Doyne, 2018. "How well do experience curves predict technological progress? A method for making distributional forecasts," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 104-117.
    12. del Río, Pablo & Peñasco, Cristina & Mir-Artigues, Pere, 2018. "An overview of drivers and barriers to concentrated solar power in the European Union," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1019-1029.
    13. Laura Diaz Anadon & Erin Baker & Valentina Bosetti & Lara Aleluia Reis, 2016. "Expert views - and disagreements - about the potential of energy technology R&D," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 136(3), pages 677-691, June.
    14. Upstill, Garrett & Hall, Peter, 2018. "Estimating the learning rate of a technology with multiple variants: The case of carbon storage," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 498-505.
    15. Noel, Lance & Brodie, Joseph F. & Kempton, Willett & Archer, Cristina L. & Budischak, Cory, 2017. "Cost minimization of generation, storage, and new loads, comparing costs with and without externalities," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 110-121.
    16. Bosetti, Valentina & Longden, Thomas, 2013. "Light duty vehicle transportation and global climate policy: The importance of electric drive vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 209-219.
    17. Tibebu, Tiruwork B. & Hittinger, Eric & Miao, Qing & Williams, Eric, 2021. "What is the optimal subsidy for residential solar?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    18. Nilsson, Måns & Nykvist, Björn, 2016. "Governing the electric vehicle transition – Near term interventions to support a green energy economy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 1360-1371.
    19. Mauleón, Ignacio, 2016. "Photovoltaic learning rate estimation: Issues and implications," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 507-524.
    20. Catenacci, Michela & Verdolini, Elena & Bosetti, Valentina & Fiorese, Giulia, 2013. "Going electric: Expert survey on the future of battery technologies for electric vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 403-413.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:114:y:2018:i:c:p:578-590. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.