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The Future Prospects of PV and CSP Solar Technologies

Author

Listed:
  • Valentina Bosetti

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, CMCC)

  • Michela Catenacci

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei)

  • Giulia Fiorese

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Politecnico di Milano Italy)

  • Elena Verdolini

    (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, CMCC)

Abstract

The present article briefly discusses the results of an expert elicitation survey on solar technologies carried out within the ICARUS project on innovation in carbon-free energy technologies. Sixteen leading European experts from the academic world, the private sector and international institutions took part in this survey on Photovoltaic (PV) and Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) technologies. The elicitation process collected probabilistic information on (1) how Research, Development and Demonstration (RD&D) investments will impact the future costs of solar technologies and (2) the potential for solar technology deployment and diffusion both in OECD and non-OECD countries. Understanding the technological progress and the potential of solar PV and CPS technologies is crucial to draft appropriate energy policies. The results presented in this paper are thus relevant for the policy making process and can be used as better input data in integrated assessment and energy models.

Suggested Citation

  • Valentina Bosetti & Michela Catenacci & Giulia Fiorese & Elena Verdolini, 2012. "The Future Prospects of PV and CSP Solar Technologies," Review of Environment, Energy and Economics - Re3, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:fem:femre3:2012.01-09
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    File URL: http://re3.feem.it/getpage.aspx?id=4401
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Wei & Yang, Jun & Sheng, Pengfei & Li, Xuesong & Wang, Xingwu, 2014. "Potential cooperation in renewable energy between China and the United States of America," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 403-409.
    2. Barron, Robert & McJeon, Haewon, 2015. "The differential impact of low-carbon technologies on climate change mitigation cost under a range of socioeconomic and climate policy scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 264-274.
    3. Sawhney, Rapinder & Thakur, Kaveri & Venkatesan, Bharadwaj & Ji, Shuguang & Upreti, Girish & Sanseverino, John, 2014. "Empirical analysis of the solar incentive policy for Tennessee solar value chain," Applied Energy, Elsevier, pages 368-376.
    4. Soni, M.S. & Gakkhar, Nikhil, 2014. "Techno-economic parametric assessment of solar power in India: A survey," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 326-334.
    5. Erin Baker & Valentina Bosetti & Ahti Salo, 2016. "Finding Common Ground when Experts Disagree: Belief Dominance over Portfolios of Alternatives," Working Papers 2016.46, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    6. Bistline, John E., 2014. "Energy technology expert elicitations: An application to natural gas turbine efficiencies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 177-187.
    7. Catenacci, Michela & Verdolini, Elena & Bosetti, Valentina & Fiorese, Giulia, 2013. "Going electric: Expert survey on the future of battery technologies for electric vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 403-413.
    8. Cartelle Barros, Juan José & Lara Coira, Manuel & de la Cruz López, María Pilar & del Caño Gochi, Alfredo, 2015. "Assessing the global sustainability of different electricity generation systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 473-489.
    9. de La Tour, Arnaud & Glachant, Matthieu & Ménière, Yann, 2013. "Predicting the costs of photovoltaic solar modules in 2020 using experience curve models," Energy, Elsevier, pages 341-348.
    10. Stergios Athanassoglou & Valentina Bosetti, 2015. "Setting Environmental Policy When Experts Disagree," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, pages 497-516.
    11. Farmer, J. Doyne & Lafond, François, 2016. "How predictable is technological progress?," Research Policy, Elsevier, pages 647-665.
    12. Verdolini, Elena & Anadon, Laura Diaz & Lu, Jiaqi & Nemet, Gregory F., 2015. "The effects of expert selection, elicitation design, and R&D assumptions on experts' estimates of the future costs of photovoltaics," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 233-243.
    13. Usher, Will & Strachan, Neil, 2013. "An expert elicitation of climate, energy and economic uncertainties," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 811-821.
    14. Hairat, Manish Kumar & Ghosh, Sajal, 2017. "100GW solar power in India by 2022 – A critical review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 1041-1050.
    15. Erin Baker & Olaitan Olaleye & Lara Aleluia Reis, 2015. "Decision Frameworks and the Investment in R&D," Working Papers 2015.42, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    16. Biondi, Tommaso & Moretto, Michele, 2015. "Solar Grid Parity dynamics in Italy: A real option approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 293-302.
    17. Steinbuks, Jevgenijs & Satija, Gaurav & Zhao, Fu, 2015. "Sustainability of solar electricity : the role of endogenous resource substitution and market mediated responses," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7178, The World Bank.
    18. Baker, Erin & Olaleye, Olaitan & Aleluia Reis, Lara, 2015. "Decision frameworks and the investment in R&D," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 275-285.
    19. Aman, M.M. & Solangi, K.H. & Hossain, M.S. & Badarudin, A. & Jasmon, G.B. & Mokhlis, H. & Bakar, A.H.A. & Kazi, S.N, 2015. "A review of Safety, Health and Environmental (SHE) issues of solar energy system," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1190-1204.
    20. Noel, Lance & Brodie, Joseph F. & Kempton, Willett & Archer, Cristina L. & Budischak, Cory, 2017. "Cost minimization of generation, storage, and new loads, comparing costs with and without externalities," Applied Energy, Elsevier, pages 110-121.
    21. repec:eee:resene:v:49:y:2017:i:c:p:218-232 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. van den Broek, Machteld & Berghout, Niels & Rubin, Edward S., 2015. "The potential of renewables versus natural gas with CO2 capture and storage for power generation under CO2 constraints," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 1296-1322.
    23. Stergios Athanassoglou & Valentina Bosetti, 2015. "Setting Environmental Policy When Experts Disagree," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, pages 497-516.
    24. Baker, Erin & Bosetti, Valentina & Anadon, Laura Diaz & Henrion, Max & Aleluia Reis, Lara, 2015. "Future costs of key low-carbon energy technologies: Harmonization and aggregation of energy technology expert elicitation data," Energy Policy, Elsevier, pages 219-232.
    25. Polo, J. & Téllez, F.M. & Tapia, C., 2016. "Comparative analysis of long-term solar resource and CSP production for bankability," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 38-45.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Expert Elicitation; Research; Development and Demonstration; Solar Technologies;

    JEL classification:

    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q55 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Technological Innovation

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