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Future Prospects for Energy Technologies: Insights from Expert Elicitations

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  • Elena Verdolini
  • Laura Díaz Anadón
  • Erin Baker
  • Valentina Bosetti
  • Lara Aleluia Reis

Abstract

Expert elicitation is a structured approach for obtaining judgments from experts about items of interest to decision makers. This method has been increasingly applied in the energy domain to collect information on the future cost, technical performance, and associated uncertainty of specific energy technologies. This article has two main objectives: (1) to introduce the basics of expert elicitations, including their design and implementation, highlighting their advantages and disadvantages and their potential to inform policymaking and energy system decisions; and (2) to discuss and compare the results of a subset of the most recent expert elicitations on energy technologies, with a focus on future cost trajectories and implied cost reduction rates. We argue that the data on future energy costs provided by expert elicitations allows for more transparent and robust analyses that incorporate technical uncertainty, which can then be used to support the design and assessment of energy and climate change mitigation policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Elena Verdolini & Laura Díaz Anadón & Erin Baker & Valentina Bosetti & Lara Aleluia Reis, 2018. "Future Prospects for Energy Technologies: Insights from Expert Elicitations," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(1), pages 133-153.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:renvpo:v:12:y:2018:i:1:p:133-153.
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    Cited by:

    1. Elena Verdolini & Laura Díaz Anadón & Erin Baker & Valentina Bosetti & Lara Aleluia Reis, 2018. "Future Prospects for Energy Technologies: Insights from Expert Elicitations," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(1), pages 133-153.
    2. Small, Mitchell J. & Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle & Kefford, Benjamin M. & Stringer, Martin & Schmeda-Lopez, Diego R. & Greig, Chris & Ballinger, Benjamin & Wilson, Stephen & Smart, Simon, 2019. "Generating linked technology-socioeconomic scenarios for emerging energy transitions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 1402-1423.
    3. David Popp, 2019. "Environmental policy and innovation: a decade of research," CESifo Working Paper Series 7544, CESifo Group Munich.
    4. Haris Doukas & Alexandros Nikas & Mikel González-Eguino & Iñaki Arto & Annela Anger-Kraavi, 2018. "From Integrated to Integrative: Delivering on the Paris Agreement," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(7), pages 1-10, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    energy technologies; R&D investments; expert elicitations; uncertainty;

    JEL classification:

    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics
    • Q55 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Technological Innovation

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