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Future Prospects for Energy Technologies: Insights from Expert Elicitations

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  • Elena Verdolini
  • Laura Díaz Anadón
  • Erin Baker
  • Valentina Bosetti
  • Lara Aleluia Reis

Abstract

Expert elicitation is a structured approach for obtaining judgments from experts about items of interest to decision makers. This method has been increasingly applied in the energy domain to collect information on the future cost, technical performance, and associated uncertainty of specific energy technologies. This article has two main objectives: (1) to introduce the basics of expert elicitations, including their design and implementation, highlighting their advantages and disadvantages and their potential to inform policymaking and energy system decisions; and (2) to discuss and compare the results of a subset of the most recent expert elicitations on energy technologies, with a focus on future cost trajectories and implied cost reduction rates. We argue that the data on future energy costs provided by expert elicitations allows for more transparent and robust analyses that incorporate technical uncertainty, which can then be used to support the design and assessment of energy and climate change mitigation policies.

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  • Elena Verdolini & Laura Díaz Anadón & Erin Baker & Valentina Bosetti & Lara Aleluia Reis, 2018. "Future Prospects for Energy Technologies: Insights from Expert Elicitations," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(1), pages 133-153.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:renvpo:v:12:y:2018:i:1:p:133-153.
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    1. Elena Verdolini & Laura Díaz Anadón & Erin Baker & Valentina Bosetti & Lara Aleluia Reis, 2018. "Future Prospects for Energy Technologies: Insights from Expert Elicitations," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(1), pages 133-153.
    2. Small, Mitchell J. & Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle & Kefford, Benjamin M. & Stringer, Martin & Schmeda-Lopez, Diego R. & Greig, Chris & Ballinger, Benjamin & Wilson, Stephen & Smart, Simon, 2019. "Generating linked technology-socioeconomic scenarios for emerging energy transitions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 1402-1423.
    3. David Popp, 2019. "Environmental policy and innovation: a decade of research," CESifo Working Paper Series 7544, CESifo.
    4. Franklyn Kanyako & Erin Baker, 2021. "Uncertainty analysis of the future cost of wind energy on climate change mitigation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 1-17, May.
    5. Whiston, Michael M. & Lima Azevedo, Inês M. & Litster, Shawn & Samaras, Constantine & Whitefoot, Kate S. & Whitacre, Jay F., 2021. "Paths to market for stationary solid oxide fuel cells: Expert elicitation and a cost of electricity model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    6. Cleary, Kathryne & Funke, Christoph & Witkin, Steven & Shawhan, Daniel, 2021. "The Value of Advanced Energy Funding: Projected Effects of Proposed US Funding for Advanced Energy Technologies," RFF Working Paper Series 21-10, Resources for the Future.
    7. Brozynski, Max T. & Leibowicz, Benjamin D., 2020. "Markov models of policy support for technology transitions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 286(3), pages 1052-1069.
    8. Lara Aleluia Reis & Zoi Vrontisi & Elena Verdolini & Kostas Fragkiadakis & Massimo Tavoni, 2023. "A research and development investment strategy to achieve the Paris climate agreement," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    9. Whiston, Michael M. & Lima Azevedo, Inês M. & Litster, Shawn & Samaras, Constantine & Whitefoot, Kate S. & Whitacre, Jay F., 2022. "Expert elicitation on paths to advance fuel cell electric vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    10. Kostas Fragkiadakis & Panagiotis Fragkos & Leonidas Paroussos, 2020. "Low-Carbon R&D Can Boost EU Growth and Competitiveness," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-29, October.
    11. Hiroto Shiraki & Masahiro Sugiyama, 2020. "Back to the basic: toward improvement of technoeconomic representation in integrated assessment models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(1), pages 13-24, September.
    12. Haris Doukas & Alexandros Nikas & Mikel González-Eguino & Iñaki Arto & Annela Anger-Kraavi, 2018. "From Integrated to Integrative: Delivering on the Paris Agreement," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-10, July.
    13. Polzin, Friedemann & Sanders, Mark, 2020. "How to finance the transition to low-carbon energy in Europe?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    14. Milford, James & Henrion, Max & Hunter, Chad & Newes, Emily & Hughes, Caroline & Baldwin, Samuel F., 2022. "Energy sector portfolio analysis with uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    energy technologies; R&D investments; expert elicitations; uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics
    • Q55 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Technological Innovation

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