IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/12484.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

How well targeted are soda taxes?

Author

Listed:
  • Dubois, Pierre
  • Griffith, Rachel
  • O'Connell, Martin

Abstract

Soda taxes aim to reduce excessive sugar consumption. Their effectiveness depends on whether they target individuals for whom the harm of consumption is largest. We estimate demand and account for supply-side equilibrium pass-through. We exploit longitudinal data to estimate individual preferences, which allows flexible heterogeneity that we relate to a wide array of individual characteristics. We show that soda taxes are effective at targeting young consumers but not individuals with high total dietary sugar; they impose the highest monetary cost on poorer individuals, but are unlikely to be strongly regressive if we account for averted future costs from over consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Dubois, Pierre & Griffith, Rachel & O'Connell, Martin, 2017. "How well targeted are soda taxes?," CEPR Discussion Papers 12484, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12484
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=12484
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Poterba, James M, 1989. "Lifetime Incidence and the Distributional Burden of Excise Taxes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(2), pages 325-330, May.
    2. John Ameriks & Andrew Caplin & John Leahy & Tom Tyler, 2007. "Measuring Self-Control Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 966-972, June.
    3. Abi Adams & Laurens Cherchye & Bram De Rock & Ewout Verriest, 2014. "Consume Now or Later? Time Inconsistency, Collective Choice, and Revealed Preference," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(12), pages 4147-4183, December.
    4. Geert Dhaene & Koen Jochmans, 2015. "Split-panel Jackknife Estimation of Fixed-effect Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 82(3), pages 991-1030.
    5. Arthur Lewbel & Krishna Pendakur, 2017. "Unobserved Preference Heterogeneity in Demand Using Generalized Random Coefficients," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(4), pages 1100-1148.
    6. Abhijit Banerjee & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2010. "The Shape of Temptation: Implications for the Economic Lives of the Poor," NBER Working Papers 15973, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. O'Donoghue, Ted & Rabin, Matthew, 2006. "Optimal sin taxes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(10-11), pages 1825-1849, November.
    8. Nicoletta Berardi & Patrick Sevestre & Marine Tépaut & Alexandre Vigneron, 2016. "The impact of a ‘soda tax’ on prices: evidence from French micro data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(41), pages 3976-3994, September.
    9. John Cawley & David Frisvold & Anna Hill & David Jones, 2020. "The Impact of the Philadelphia Beverage Tax on Prices and Product Availability," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 605-628, June.
    10. Nevo, Aviv, 2001. "Measuring Market Power in the Ready-to-Eat Cereal Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(2), pages 307-342, March.
    11. Victor Chernozhukov & Jerry A. Hausman & Whitney K. Newey, 2019. "Demand Analysis with Many Prices," NBER Working Papers 26424, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Pierre Dubois & Rachel Griffith & Martin O’Connell, 2018. "The Effects of Banning Advertising in Junk Food Markets," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 85(1), pages 396-436.
    13. Emily Yucai Wang, 2015. "The impact of soda taxes on consumer welfare: implications of storability and taste heterogeneity," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 46(2), pages 409-441, June.
    14. Read, Daniel & van Leeuwen, Barbara, 1998. "Predicting Hunger: The Effects of Appetite and Delay on Choice, , , ," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 189-205, November.
    15. Browning, Martin & Meghir, Costas, 1991. "The Effects of Male and Female Labor Supply on Commodity Demands," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(4), pages 925-951, July.
    16. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Rebecca Hellerstein, 2013. "A Structural Approach to Identifying the Sources of Local Currency Price Stability," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 80(1), pages 175-210.
    17. John Cawley & David E. Frisvold, 2017. "The Pass‐Through of Taxes on Sugar‐Sweetened Beverages to Retail Prices: The Case of Berkeley, California," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(2), pages 303-326, March.
    18. Harding, Matthew & Lovenheim, Michael, 2017. "The effect of prices on nutrition: Comparing the impact of product- and nutrient-specific taxes," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 53-71.
    19. Gilbert, Daniel T. & Gill, Michael J. & Wilson, Timothy D., 2002. "The Future Is Now: Temporal Correction in Affective Forecasting," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 430-444, May.
    20. Haavio, Markus & Kotakorpi, Kaisa, 2011. "The political economy of sin taxes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 575-594, May.
    21. Nakamura, Emi & Zerom, Dawit, 2008. "Accounting for Incomplete Pass-Through," MPRA Paper 14389, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Gonçalves, Judite & Pereira dos Santos, João, 2020. "Brown sugar, how come you taste so good? The impact of a soda tax on prices and consumption," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    23. Pierre Dubois & Rachel Griffith & Aviv Nevo, 2014. "Do Prices and Attributes Explain International Differences in Food Purchases?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(3), pages 832-867, March.
    24. Fabrice Etilé & Sebastien Lecocq & Christine Boizot-Szantai, 2018. "The Incidence of Soft-Drink Taxes on Consumer Prices and Welfare: Evidence from the French " Soda Tax"," Working Papers halshs-01808198, HAL.
    25. Matthew Rabin, 1998. "Psychology and Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(1), pages 11-46, March.
    26. Jeffrey Grogger, 2017. "Soda Taxes And The Prices of Sodas And Other Drinks: Evidence From Mexico," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 99(2), pages 481-498.
    27. Céline Bonnet & Pierre Dubois, 2010. "Inference on vertical contracts between manufacturers and retailers allowing for nonlinear pricing and resale price maintenance," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 41(1), pages 139-164, March.
    28. Patrick Bajari & C. Lanier Benkard, 2005. "Demand Estimation with Heterogeneous Consumers and Unobserved Product Characteristics: A Hedonic Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(6), pages 1239-1276, December.
    29. Steven T. Berry, 1994. "Estimating Discrete-Choice Models of Product Differentiation," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 25(2), pages 242-262, Summer.
    30. Francesca Colantuoni & Christian Rojas, 2015. "The Impact Of Soda Sales Taxes On Consumption: Evidence From Scanner Data," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(4), pages 714-734, October.
    31. Donald S. Kenkel, 2005. "Are Alcohol Tax Hikes Fully Passed Through to Prices? Evidence from Alaska," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 273-277, May.
    32. Dean R. Lillard & Andrew Sfekas, 2013. "Just passing through: the effect of the Master Settlement Agreement on estimated cigarette tax price pass-through," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 353-357, March.
    33. Sofia Berto Villas-Boas, 2007. "Vertical Relationships between Manufacturers and Retailers: Inference with Limited Data," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(2), pages 625-652.
    34. David M. Cutler & Edward L. Glaeser & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2003. "Why Have Americans Become More Obese?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 93-118, Summer.
    35. Burda, Martin & Harding, Matthew & Hausman, Jerry, 2008. "A Bayesian mixed logit-probit model for multinomial choice," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(2), pages 232-246, December.
    36. Susanne M. Schennach, 2013. "Regressions with Berkson errors in covariates - A nonparametric approach," Papers 1308.2836, arXiv.org.
    37. Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521766555, October.
    38. M Arantxa Colchero & Juan Carlos Salgado & Mishel Unar-Munguía & Mariana Molina & Shuwen Ng & Juan Angel Rivera-Dommarco, 2015. "Changes in Prices After an Excise Tax to Sweetened Sugar Beverages Was Implemented in Mexico: Evidence from Urban Areas," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(12), pages 1-11, December.
    39. Geert Dhaene & Koen Jochmans, 2015. "Split-panel Jackknife Estimation of Fixed-effect Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 82(3), pages 991-1030.
    40. Sara Capacci & Olivier Allais & Celine Bonnet & Mario Mazzocchi, 2019. "The impact of the French soda tax on prices and purchases. An ex post evaluation," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(10), pages 1-22, October.
    41. Baum II, Charles L. & Ruhm, Christopher J., 2009. "Age, socioeconomic status and obesity growth," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 635-648, May.
    42. Allcott, Hunt & Mullainathan, Sendhil & Taubinsky, Dmitry, 2014. "Energy policy with externalities and internalities," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 72-88.
    43. Jinyong Hahn & Whitney Newey, 2004. "Jackknife and Analytical Bias Reduction for Nonlinear Panel Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(4), pages 1295-1319, July.
    44. Benjamin B. Lockwood & Dmitry Taubinsky, 2017. "Regressive Sin Taxes," NBER Working Papers 23085, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    45. Lynn D Silver & Shu Wen Ng & Suzanne Ryan-Ibarra & Lindsey Smith Taillie & Marta Induni & Donna R Miles & Jennifer M Poti & Barry M Popkin, 2017. "Changes in prices, sales, consumer spending, and beverage consumption one year after a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages in Berkeley, California, US: A before-and-after study," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(4), pages 1-19, April.
    46. Steven Berry & James Levinsohn & Ariel Pakes, 2004. "Differentiated Products Demand Systems from a Combination of Micro and Macro Data: The New Car Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(1), pages 68-105, February.
    47. Janet Currie, 2009. "Healthy, Wealthy, and Wise: Socioeconomic Status, Poor Health in Childhood, and Human Capital Development," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 87-122, March.
    48. Falbe, J. & Rojas, N. & Grummon, A.H. & Madsen, K.A., 2015. "Higher retail prices of sugar-sweetened beverages 3 months after implementation of an excise tax in Berkeley, California," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 105(11), pages 2194-2201.
    49. Gruber, Jonathan & Koszegi, Botond, 2004. "Tax incidence when individuals are time-inconsistent: the case of cigarette excise taxes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(9-10), pages 1959-1987, August.
    50. Manuel Arellano & Stèphane Bonhomme, 2011. "Nonlinear Panel Data Analysis," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 395-424, September.
    51. Bonnet, Céline & Réquillart, Vincent, 2013. "Tax incidence with strategic firms in the soft drink market," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 77-88.
    52. Emi Nakamura & Dawit Zerom, 2010. "Accounting for Incomplete Pass-Through," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 77(3), pages 1192-1230.
    53. Matthew Harding & Ephraim Leibtag & Michael F. Lovenheim, 2012. "The Heterogeneous Geographic and Socioeconomic Incidence of Cigarette Taxes: Evidence from Nielsen Homescan Data," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 169-198, November.
    54. Aguilar, Arturo & Gutierrez, Emilio & Seira, Enrique, 2021. "The effectiveness of sin food taxes: Evidence from Mexico," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    55. Greg Kaplan & Guido Menzio, 2015. "The Morphology Of Price Dispersion," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56, pages 1165-1206, November.
    56. Delipalla, Sophia & O'Donnell, Owen, 2001. "Estimating tax incidence, market power and market conduct: The European cigarette industry," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 885-908, May.
    57. Mark Aguiar & Erik Hurst, 2007. "Life-Cycle Prices and Production," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(5), pages 1533-1559, December.
    58. Rachel Griffith & Martin O'Connell & Kate Smith & Rebekah Stroud, 2020. "What's on the Menu? Policies to Reduce Young People's Sugar Consumption," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(1), pages 165-197, March.
    59. Besley, Timothy J. & Rosen, Harvey S., 1999. "Sales Taxes and Prices: An Empirical Analysis," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 52(2), pages 157-178, June.
    60. Patrick Bajari & Jeremy T. Fox & Stephen P. Ryan, 2007. "Linear Regression Estimation of Discrete Choice Models with Nonparametric Distributions of Random Coefficients," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 459-463, May.
    61. Aviv Nevo & Catherine Wolfram, 2002. "Why Do Manufacturers Issue Coupons? An Empirical Analysis of Breakfast Cereals," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 33(2), pages 319-339, Summer.
    62. Berry, Steven & Levinsohn, James & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 841-890, July.
    63. John Cawley & Chelsea Crain & David Frisvold & David Jones, 2018. "The Pass-Through of the Largest Tax on Sugar-Sweetened Beverages: The Case of Boulder, Colorado," NBER Working Papers 25050, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Martin O'Connell & Kate Smith, 2021. "Optimal sin taxation and market power," IFS Working Papers W21/30, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    2. O'Connell, Martin & Smith, Kate, 2020. "Corrective Tax Design and Market Power," CEPR Discussion Papers 14582, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Rachel Griffith & Lars Nesheim & Martin O'Connell, 2018. "Income effects and the welfare consequences of tax in differentiated product oligopoly," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 9(1), pages 305-341, March.
    4. Bonnet, Céline & Réquillart, Vincent, 2013. "Tax incidence with strategic firms in the soft drink market," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 77-88.
    5. Martin O'Connell & Pierre Dubois & Rachel Griffith, 2022. "The Use of Scanner Data for Economics Research," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 723-745, August.
    6. Gračner, Tadeja & Kapinos, Kandice A. & Gertler, Paul J., 2022. "Associations of a national tax on non-essential high calorie foods with changes in consumer prices," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    7. Cherchye, Laurens & De Rock, Bram & Griffith, Rachel & O’Connell, Martin & Smith, Kate & Vermeulen, Frederic, 2020. "A new year, a new you? Within-individual variation in food purchases," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    8. Rachel Griffith & Martin O'Connell & Kate Smith & Rebekah Stroud, 2020. "What's on the Menu? Policies to Reduce Young People's Sugar Consumption," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(1), pages 165-197, March.
    9. John Cawley & David Frisvold & David Jones & Chelsea Lensing, 2021. "The Pass‐Through of a Tax on Sugar‐Sweetened Beverages in Boulder, Colorado," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(3), pages 987-1005, May.
    10. Laurens Cherchye & Bram De Rock & Rachel Griffith & Martin O'Connell & Kate Smith & Frederic Vermeulen, 2017. "A New Year, a New You ?Heterogeneity and Self-control in Food Purchases," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2017-46, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    11. Gonçalves, Judite & Pereira dos Santos, João, 2020. "Brown sugar, how come you taste so good? The impact of a soda tax on prices and consumption," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    12. Fabrice Etilé & Sebastien Lecocq & Christine Boizot-Szantai, 2019. "Market Heterogeneity and the Distributional Incidence of Soft-drink Taxes: Evidence from France," Working Papers hal-02084147, HAL.
    13. Raymundo M. Campos-Vázquez & Eduardo M. Medina-Cortina, 2019. "Pass-through and competition: the impact of soft drink taxes as seen through Mexican supermarkets," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 28(1), pages 1-23, December.
    14. Powell, Lisa M. & Leider, Julien & Léger, Pierre Thomas, 2020. "The impact of the Cook County, IL, Sweetened Beverage Tax on beverage prices," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    15. Bonnet, Céline & Réquillart, Vincent, 2011. "Strategic Pricing and Health Price Policies," IDEI Working Papers 671, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse, revised Jul 2012.
    16. Irz, Xavier & Mazzocchi, Mario & Réquillart, Vincent & Soler, Louis-Georges, 2015. "Research in Food Economics: past trends and new challenges," Revue d'Etudes en Agriculture et Environnement, Editions NecPlus, vol. 96(01), pages 187-237, March.
    17. John Cawley & Chelsea Crain & David Frisvold & David Jones, 2018. "The Pass-Through of the Largest Tax on Sugar-Sweetened Beverages: The Case of Boulder, Colorado," NBER Working Papers 25050, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Harding, Matthew & Lovenheim, Michael, 2017. "The effect of prices on nutrition: Comparing the impact of product- and nutrient-specific taxes," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 53-71.
    19. Paula Carvalho Pereda & Carolina Policarpo Garcia, 2021. "Price impact of taxes on sugary drinks in Brazil," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2021_06, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    20. Dickson, Alex & Gehrsitz, Markus & Kemp, Jonathan, 2021. "Does a Spoonful of Sugar Levy Help the Calories Go Down? An Analysis of the UK Soft Drinks Industry Levy," IZA Discussion Papers 14528, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    discrete choice demand; Pass-Through; preference heterogeneity; soda tax;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12484. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.