Distinguishing drought experiences: From perception to measurement and their significance on productivity value in Uganda

Weather shocks increasingly threaten agricultural productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa. While the negative effects of drought on production have been documented in numerous studies, the behavioral dimension of adaptation, particularly how households perceive drought and what shapes these perceptions, remains less explored. The study focuses on Uganda to distinguish between self-reported drought (subjective) and data-driven drought (objective) and how their divergence is associated with agricultural outcomes. The study relies on four waves of household surveys (UNPS for 2009/10, 2010/11, 2011/12, and 2013/14) with historical re-analysis data on temperature and precipitation from 1981 to 2015. Log-linear and logit models are applied to estimate the association between drought, perception, and household characteristics on production and drought perception formation. Objective drought is negatively associated with total value of production. Subjective drought perception has a positive association with production. Self-reported drought captures differences in households’ behavioral responses or preparedness, rather than observed weather shocks. Households that underestimate drought conditions tend to exhibit lower production outcomes, while households reporting a drought when this is not observed in objective data tend to maintain their production levels. Access to the Drought Early Warning System (DEWS), technology adoption, higher education levels, farming experience, and greater off-farm assets are positively associated with higher production. Conversely, lower production is associated with a higher share of female labor, female-headed households, and poverty. The results highlight the importance of distinguishing between perceived and observed drought and improving households’ access to timely information to plan adaptation strategies.