IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jjrfmx/v10y2017i2p8-d95645.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Empirical Study on the Impact of Basel III Standards on Banks’ Default Risk: The Case of Luxembourg

Author

Listed:
  • Gastón Andrés Giordana

    () (Economics and Research department, Banque Centrale du Luxembourg, Luxembourg, L-2983, Luxembourg)

  • Ingmar Schumacher

    () (IPAG Business School, Paris, 75006, France)

Abstract

We study how the Basel III regulations, namely the Capital-to-Assets Ratio (CAR), the Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR) and the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR), are likely to impact banks’ profitability (i.e., ROA), capital levels and default. We estimate historical series of the new Basel III regulations for a panel of Luxembourgish banks for a period covering 2003q2–2011q3. We econometrically investigate whether historical LCR and NSFR components, as well as CAR positions are able to explain the variation in a measure of a bank’s default risk (approximated by Z-score) and how these effects make their way through banks’ ROA and CAR.We find that the liquidity regulations induce a decrease in average probabilities of default. We find that the liquidity regulation focusing on maturity mismatches (i.e., NSFR) induces a decrease in average probabilities of default. Conversely, the impact on banks’ profitability is less clear-cut; what seems to matter is banks’ funding structure rather than the characteristics of the portfolio of assets. Additionally, we use a model of bank behavior to simulate the banks’ optimal adjustments of their balance sheets as if they had to adhere to the regulations starting in 2003q2. Then, we predict, using our preferred econometric model and based on the simulated data, the banks’ Z-score and ROA. The simulation exercise suggests that basically all banks would have seen a decrease in their default risk during a crisis episode if they had previously adhered to Basel III.

Suggested Citation

  • Gastón Andrés Giordana & Ingmar Schumacher, 2017. "An Empirical Study on the Impact of Basel III Standards on Banks’ Default Risk: The Case of Luxembourg," Journal of Risk and Financial Management, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(2), pages 1-21, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:10:y:2017:i:2:p:8-:d:95645
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/10/2/8/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/10/2/8/
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Berger, Allen N. & Bouwman, Christa H.S., 2013. "How does capital affect bank performance during financial crises?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 146-176.
    2. Demirgüç-Kunt, AslI & Detragiache, Enrica & Tressel, Thierry, 2008. "Banking on the principles: Compliance with Basel Core Principles and bank soundness," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 511-542, October.
    3. Paolo Angelini & Laurent Clerc & Vasco Cúrdia & Leonardo Gambacorta & Andrea Gerali & Alberto Locarno & Roberto Motto & Werner Roeger & Skander Van den Heuvel & Jan Vlček, 2015. "Basel III: Long-term Impact on Economic Performance and Fluctuations," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 83(2), pages 217-251, March.
    4. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    5. Athanasoglou, Panayiotis P. & Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Delis, Matthaios D., 2008. "Bank-specific, industry-specific and macroeconomic determinants of bank profitability," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 121-136, April.
    6. repec:fip:fedhpr:y:2010:i:may:p:65-71 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. John Y. Campbell & Jens Hilscher & Jan Szilagyi, 2008. "In Search of Distress Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2899-2939, December.
    8. Viral V. Acharya & Lasse H. Pedersen & Thomas Philippon & Matthew Richardson, 2017. "Measuring Systemic Risk," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 2-47.
    9. Gaston Giordana & Ingmar Schumacher, 2011. "The Impact of the Basel III Liquidity Regulations on the Bank Lending Channel: A Luxembourg case study," BCL working papers 61, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    10. Berger, Allen N, 1995. "The Relationship between Capital and Earnings in Banking," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(2), pages 432-456, May.
    11. Berger, Allen N, 1995. "The Profit-Structure Relationship in Banking--Tests of Market-Power and Efficient-Structure Hypotheses," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(2), pages 404-431, May.
    12. Dietsch, Michel & Petey, Joel, 2002. "The credit risk in SME loans portfolios: Modeling issues, pricing, and capital requirements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 303-322, March.
    13. Molyneux, Philip & Thornton, John, 1992. "Determinants of European bank profitability: A note," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 1173-1178, December.
    14. Gennotte, Gerard & Pyle, David, 1991. "Capital controls and bank risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4-5), pages 805-824, September.
    15. Chen Zhou, 2010. "Are Banks Too Big to Fail? Measuring Systemic Importance of Financial Institutions," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 6(34), pages 205-250, December.
    16. Daniel S. Hamermesh & Gerard A. Pfann, 1996. "Adjustment Costs in Factor Demand," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(3), pages 1264-1292, September.
    17. Jin, Xisong & Nadal De Simone, Francisco de A., 2014. "Banking systemic vulnerabilities: A tail-risk dynamic CIMDO approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 81-101.
    18. Lam, Chun H & Chen, Andrew H, 1985. " Joint Effects of Interest Rate Deregulation and Capital Requirements on Optimal Bank Portfolio Adjustments," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(2), pages 563-575, June.
    19. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    20. Besanko, David & Kanatas, George, 1996. "The Regulation of Bank Capital: Do Capital Standards Promote Bank Safety?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 160-183, April.
    21. Goddard, John & Molyneux, Phil & Wilson, John O S, 2004. "Dynamics of Growth and Profitability in Banking," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(6), pages 1069-1090, December.
    22. Jackson, Patricia & Perraudin, William, 2000. "Regulatory implications of credit risk modelling," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 1-14, January.
    23. Richard Podpiera, 2006. "Does Compliance with Basel Core Principles Bring Any Measurable Benefits?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(2), pages 1-5.
    24. Richard Podpiera, 2004. "Does Compliance with Basel Core Principles Bring Any Measurable Benefits?," IMF Working Papers 04/204, International Monetary Fund.
    25. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    26. Allen N. Berger & Leora F. Klapper & Rima Turk-Ariss, 2017. "Bank competition and financial stability," Chapters, in: Jacob A. Bikker & Laura Spierdijk (ed.), Handbook of Competition in Banking and Finance, chapter 10, pages 185-204, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    27. Moore, Kyle & Zhou, Chen, 2013. ""Too big to fail" or "Too non-traditional to fail"?: The determinants of banks' systemic importance," MPRA Paper 45589, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    28. Miguel A. Segoviano & Raphael A Espinoza, 2011. "Probabilities of Default and the Market Price of Risk in a Distressed Economy," IMF Working Papers 11/75, International Monetary Fund.
    29. Berger, Allen N. & Hanweck, Gerald A. & Humphrey, David B., 1987. "Competitive viability in banking : Scale, scope, and product mix economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 501-520, December.
    30. Wagner, Wolf, 2007. "The liquidity of bank assets and banking stability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 121-139, January.
    31. Gordy, Michael B., 2000. "A comparative anatomy of credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 119-149, January.
    32. Gaston Andrés Giordana, 2016. "Welfare and Stochastic Dominance for the Measurement of Banks' Domestic Systemic Importance: Analytical Framework and Application," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 192-208, April.
    33. Kopecky, Kenneth J. & VanHoose, David, 2004. "A model of the monetary sector with and without binding capital requirements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 633-646, March.
    34. Adrian, Tobias & Shin, Hyun Song, 2010. "Liquidity and leverage," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 418-437, July.
    35. Smirlock, Michael, 1985. "Evidence on the (Non) Relationship between Concentration and Profitability in Banking," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(1), pages 69-83, February.
    36. John Goddard & Phil Molyneux & John O. S. Wilson, 2004. "The profitability of european banks: a cross-sectional and dynamic panel analysis," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 72(3), pages 363-381, June.
    37. Gaston Giordana & Ingmar Schumacher, 2013. "What are the bank-specific and macroeconomic drivers of banks’ leverage? Evidence from Luxembourg," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 905-928, October.
    38. Bourke, Philip, 1989. "Concentration and other determinants of bank profitability in Europe, North America and Australia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 65-79, March.
    39. Barth, James R. & Caprio, Gerard Jr. & Levine, Ross, 2004. "Bank regulation and supervision: what works best?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 205-248, April.
    40. Nikola Tarashev & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2010. "Attributing systemic risk to individual institutions," BIS Working Papers 308, Bank for International Settlements.
    41. Nikolaos Papanikolaou & Christian Wolff, 2010. "Leverage and risk in US commercial banking in the light of the current financial crisis," LSF Research Working Paper Series 10-12, Luxembourg School of Finance, University of Luxembourg.
    42. Gaston A. Giordana & Ingmar Schumacher, 2013. "Bank liquidity risk and monetary policy. Empirical evidence on the impact of Basel III liquidity standards," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(5), pages 633-655, September.
    43. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    44. Nikola Tarashev & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2009. "The systemic importance of financial institutions," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    45. Xisong Jin & Francisco Nadal de Simone, 2011. "Market- and Book-Based Models of Probability of Default for Developing Macroprudential Policy Tools," BCL working papers 65, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    46. Anderson, Ronald & Sundaresan, Suresh, 2000. "A comparative study of structural models of corporate bond yields: An exploratory investigation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 255-269, January.
    47. Patrick Slovik & Boris Cournède, 2011. "Macroeconomic Impact of Basel III," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 844, OECD Publishing.
    48. Crouhy, Michel & Galai, Dan & Mark, Robert, 2000. "A comparative analysis of current credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 59-117, January.
    49. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    50. Judson, Ruth A. & Owen, Ann L., 1999. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 9-15, October.
    51. Windmeijer, Frank, 2005. "A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 25-51, May.
    52. Gastón Andrés Giordana & Ingmar Schumacher, 2011. "The Leverage Cycle in Luxembourg?s Banking Sector," BCL working papers 66, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    53. Robert E. Lucas & Jr., 1967. "Adjustment Costs and the Theory of Supply," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75, pages 321-321.
    54. Viral V. Acharya, 2010. "Measuring systemic risk," Proceedings 1140, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lallour, Antoine & Mio, Hitoshi, 2016. "Do we need a stable funding ratio? Banks’ funding in the global financial crisis," Bank of England working papers 602, Bank of England.
    2. Parrado-Martínez, Purificación & Gómez-Fernández-Aguado, Pilar & Partal-Ureña, Antonio, 2019. "Factors influencing the European bank’s probability of default: An application of SYMBOL methodology," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 223-240.
    3. Sebastian Krug & Matthias Lengnick & Hans-Werner Wohltmann, 2014. "The impact of Basel III on financial (in)stability: an agent-based credit network approach," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(12), pages 1917-1932, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Basel III; bank default; Z-score; profitability; ROA; GMM estimator; simulation; Luxembourg;

    JEL classification:

    • C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods
    • E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G - Financial Economics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:10:y:2017:i:2:p:8-:d:95645. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (XML Conversion Team). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.