IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/intfin/v61y2019icp223-240.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Factors influencing the European bank’s probability of default: An application of SYMBOL methodology

Author

Listed:
  • Parrado-Martínez, Purificación
  • Gómez-Fernández-Aguado, Pilar
  • Partal-Ureña, Antonio

Abstract

This paper analyses European banks’ probability of default (PD) by estimating a new measure that is based on the SYstemic Model of Bank Originated Losses (SYMBOL). First, we calculate the individual PD of a sample of European credit institutions during the period of 2011–2016. Then, dynamic panel data models are estimated to analyse the influence of several bank-specific and macroeconomic variables on the PD. We conclude that capital adequacy, liquidity, asset quality and profitability indicators influence the European banks’ PD. The macroeconomic scenario, the industry concentration and the size of banks also appear to have an impact on their risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Parrado-Martínez, Purificación & Gómez-Fernández-Aguado, Pilar & Partal-Ureña, Antonio, 2019. "Factors influencing the European bank’s probability of default: An application of SYMBOL methodology," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 223-240.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:61:y:2019:i:c:p:223-240
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2019.04.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1042443118304700
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.intfin.2019.04.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Drago, Danilo & Tommaso, Caterina Di & Thornton, John, 2017. "What determines bank CDS spreads? Evidence from European and US banks," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 140-145.
    2. Lepetit, Laetitia & Strobel, Frank, 2015. "Bank insolvency risk and Z-score measures: A refinement," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 214-224.
    3. Harald Hau & Sam Langfield & David Marques-Ibanez, 2013. "Bank ratings: what determines their quality? [Bank risk during the financial crisis: do business models matter?]," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 28(74), pages 289-333.
    4. Berger, Allen N & Davies, Sally M & Flannery, Mark J, 2000. "Comparing Market and Supervisory Assessments of Bank Performance: Who Knows What When?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 641-667, August.
    5. Pilar Gómez-Fernández-Aguado & Purificación Parrado-Martínez & Antonio Partal-Ureña, 2018. "Risk Profile Indicators and Spanish Banks’ Probability of Default from a Regulatory Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-16, April.
    6. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    7. Blasko, Matej & Sinkey, Joseph Jr., 2006. "Bank asset structure, real-estate lending, and risk-taking," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 53-81, February.
    8. Samaniego-Medina, Reyes & Trujillo-Ponce, Antonio & Parrado-Martínez, Purificación & di Pietro, Filippo, 2016. "Determinants of bank CDS spreads in Europe," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1-15.
    9. David Roodman, 2009. "How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 9(1), pages 86-136, March.
    10. Benczur, Peter & Cannas, Giuseppina & Cariboni, Jessica & Di Girolamo, Francesca & Maccaferri, Sara & Petracco Giudici, Marco, 2017. "Evaluating the effectiveness of the new EU bank regulatory framework: A farewell to bail-out?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 207-223.
    11. Betz, Frank & Oprică, Silviu & Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Sarlin, Peter, 2014. "Predicting distress in European banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 225-241.
    12. Tran, Vuong Thao & Lin, Chien-Ting & Nguyen, Hoa, 2016. "Liquidity creation, regulatory capital, and bank profitability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 98-109.
    13. Agoraki, Maria-Eleni K. & Delis, Manthos D. & Pasiouras, Fotios, 2011. "Regulations, competition and bank risk-taking in transition countries," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 38-48, January.
    14. Jokipii, Terhi & Milne, Alistair, 2011. "Bank capital buffer and risk adjustment decisions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 165-178, August.
    15. Rebel Cole & Lawrence White, 2012. "Déjà Vu All Over Again: The Causes of U.S. Commercial Bank Failures This Time Around," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 5-29, October.
    16. De Jonghe, Olivier, 2010. "Back to the basics in banking? A micro-analysis of banking system stability," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 387-417, July.
    17. Berger, Allen N. & DeYoung, Robert, 1997. "Problem loans and cost efficiency in commercial banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 849-870, June.
    18. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 2000. "Financial Contagion," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(1), pages 1-33, February.
    19. Constantin, Andreea & Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Sarlin, Peter, 2018. "Network linkages to predict bank distress," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 226-241.
    20. Laeven, Luc & Levine, Ross, 2009. "Bank governance, regulation and risk taking," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 259-275, August.
    21. Alter, Adrian & Schüler, Yves S., 2012. "Credit spread interdependencies of European states and banks during the financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 3444-3468.
    22. Saunders, Anthony & Strock, Elizabeth & Travlos, Nickolaos G, 1990. "Ownership Structure, Deregulation, and Bank Risk Taking," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 643-654, June.
    23. Delis, Manthos D. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2011. "Interest rates and bank risk-taking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 840-855, April.
    24. Boyd, John H. & Prescott, Edward C., 1986. "Financial intermediary-coalitions," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 211-232, April.
    25. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    26. Baselga-Pascual, Laura & Trujillo-Ponce, Antonio & Cardone-Riportella, Clara, 2015. "Factors influencing bank risk in Europe: Evidence from the financial crisis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 138-166.
    27. Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli & Huizinga, Harry, 2010. "Bank activity and funding strategies: The impact on risk and returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(3), pages 626-650, December.
    28. Wiem Ben Jabra & Zouheir Mighri & Faysal Mansouri, 2017. "Determinants of European bank risk during financial crisis," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1298420-129, January.
    29. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    30. Männasoo, Kadri & Mayes, David G., 2009. "Explaining bank distress in Eastern European transition economies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 244-253, February.
    31. Uhde, André & Heimeshoff, Ulrich, 2009. "Consolidation in banking and financial stability in Europe: Empirical evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1299-1311, July.
    32. Cihák, Martin & Schaeck, Klaus, 2010. "How well do aggregate prudential ratios identify banking system problems?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 130-144, September.
    33. Annaert, Jan & De Ceuster, Marc & Van Roy, Patrick & Vespro, Cristina, 2013. "What determines Euro area bank CDS spreads?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 444-461.
    34. Catarina Fernandes & Jorge Farinha & Francisco Vitorino Martins & Cesario Mateus, 2016. "Determinants of European Banks’ Bailouts Following the 2007–2008 Financial Crisis," Journal of International Economic Law, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(3), pages 707-742.
    35. Distinguin, Isabelle & Roulet, Caroline & Tarazi, Amine, 2013. "Bank regulatory capital and liquidity: Evidence from US and European publicly traded banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3295-3317.
    36. Haq, Mamiza & Heaney, Richard, 2012. "Factors determining European bank risk," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 696-718.
    37. DeYoung, Robert & Distinguin, Isabelle & Tarazi, Amine, 2018. "The joint regulation of bank liquidity and bank capital," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 32-46.
    38. Tigran Poghosyan & Martin Čihak, 2011. "Determinants of Bank Distress in Europe: Evidence from a New Data Set," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 163-184, December.
    39. Jin, Justin Yiqiang & Kanagaretnam, Kiridaran & Lobo, Gerald J., 2011. "Ability of accounting and audit quality variables to predict bank failure during the financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 2811-2819, November.
    40. Riccardo Lisa & Stefano Zedda & Francesco Vallascas & Francesca Campolongo & Massimo Marchesi, 2011. "Modelling Deposit Insurance Scheme Losses in a Basel 2 Framework," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 123-141, December.
    41. Khan, Muhammad Saifuddin & Scheule, Harald & Wu, Eliza, 2017. "Funding liquidity and bank risk taking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 203-216.
    42. Vicente Salas & Jesús Saurina, 2002. "Credit Risk in Two Institutional Regimes: Spanish Commercial and Savings Banks," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 22(3), pages 203-224, December.
    43. Muhammed Altuntas & Jannes Rauch, 2017. "Concentration and financial stability in the property-liability insurance sector: global evidence," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 18(3), pages 284-302, May.
    44. Vazquez, Francisco & Federico, Pablo, 2015. "Bank funding structures and risk: Evidence from the global financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-14.
    45. Gastón Andrés Giordana & Ingmar Schumacher, 2017. "An Empirical Study on the Impact of Basel III Standards on Banks’ Default Risk: The Case of Luxembourg," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-21, April.
    46. Manthos D. Delis & Panagiotis K. Staikouras, 2011. "Supervisory Effectiveness and Bank Risk," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 15(3), pages 511-543.
    47. John H. Boyd & Gianni De Nicoló, 2005. "The Theory of Bank Risk Taking and Competition Revisited," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1329-1343, June.
    48. Festic, Mejra & Kavkler, Alenka & Repina, Sebastijan, 2011. "The macroeconomic sources of systemic risk in the banking sectors of five new EU member states," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 310-322, February.
    49. Shehzad, Choudhry Tanveer & de Haan, Jakob & Scholtens, Bert, 2010. "The impact of bank ownership concentration on impaired loans and capital adequacy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 399-408, February.
    50. Leung, W.S. & Taylor, N. & Evans, K.P., 2015. "The determinants of bank risks: Evidence from the recent financial crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 277-293.
    51. Klomp, Jeroen & Haan, Jakob de, 2012. "Banking risk and regulation: Does one size fit all?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 3197-3212.
    52. Laura Chiaramonte & Barbara Casu, 2013. "The determinants of bank CDS spreads: evidence from the financial crisis," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(9), pages 861-887, October.
    53. Clara Galliani & Stefano Zedda, 2015. "Will the Bail-in Break the Vicious Circle Between Banks and their Sovereign?," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 45(4), pages 597-614, April.
    54. Ronal Muresano & Andrea Pagano, 2016. "Adapting and Optimizing the Systemic Model of Banking Originated Losses (SYMBOL) Tool to the Multi-core Architecture," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 48(2), pages 253-280, August.
    55. Ghosh, Amit, 2015. "Banking-industry specific and regional economic determinants of non-performing loans: Evidence from US states," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 93-104.
    56. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    57. Charles W. Calomiris, 2009. "Financial Innovation, Regulation, and Reform," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 29(1), pages 65-91, Winter.
    58. Angbazo, Lazarus, 1997. "Commercial bank net interest margins, default risk, interest-rate risk, and off-balance sheet banking," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 55-87, January.
    59. Windmeijer, Frank, 2005. "A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 25-51, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tânia Costa & Júlio Lobão & Luís Pacheco, 2023. "Reassessing bank monitoring models: an empirical analysis of the value of market signals in the period 2008–2020," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(2), pages 206-227, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pilar Gómez-Fernández-Aguado & Purificación Parrado-Martínez & Antonio Partal-Ureña, 2018. "Risk Profile Indicators and Spanish Banks’ Probability of Default from a Regulatory Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-16, April.
    2. Baselga-Pascual, Laura & Trujillo-Ponce, Antonio & Cardone-Riportella, Clara, 2015. "Factors influencing bank risk in Europe: Evidence from the financial crisis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 138-166.
    3. Wiem Ben Jabra & Zouheir Mighri & Faysal Mansouri, 2017. "Determinants of European bank risk during financial crisis," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1298420-129, January.
    4. Baselga-Pascual, Laura & Vähämaa, Emilia, 2021. "Female leadership and bank performance in Latin America," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    5. Matabaro Borauzima, Luc & Muller, Aline, 2023. "Bank risk-taking and competition in developing banking markets: Does efficiency level matter? Evidence from Africa," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    6. Giuliana Birindelli & Paola Ferretti & Giovanni Ferri & Marco Savioli, 2022. "Regulatory reform and banking diversity: reassessing Basel 3," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 429-456, December.
    7. Gupta, Juhi & Kashiramka, Smita, 2020. "Financial stability of banks in India: Does liquidity creation matter?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    8. Giuliana Birindelli & Paola Ferretti & Marco Savioli, 2016. "Basel 3: Does One Size Really Fit All Banks' Business Models?," Working Paper series 16-20, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    9. Ion Lapteacru, 2022. "What drives the risk of European banks during crises? New evidence and insights," Working Papers hal-03775463, HAL.
    10. Cicchiello, Antonella Francesca & Cotugno, Matteo & Perdichizzi, Salvatore & Torluccio, Giuseppe, 2022. "Do capital buffers matter? Evidence from the stocks and flows of nonperforming loans," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    11. Laura Baselga-Pascual & Olga Del Orden-Olasagasti & Antonio Trujillo-Ponce, 2018. "Toward a More Resilient Financial System: Should Banks Be Diversified?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-16, June.
    12. Ion Lapteacru, 2022. "What drives the risk of European banks during crises? New evidence and insights," Working Papers hal-03625046, HAL.
    13. Cristian BARRA & Roberto ZOTTI, 2019. "Bank Performance, Financial Stability And Market Concentration: Evidence From Cooperative And Non‐Cooperative Banks," Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 90(1), pages 103-139, March.
    14. Brei, Michael & Jacolin, Luc & Noah, Alphonse, 2020. "Credit risk and bank competition in Sub-Saharan Africa," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    15. Sascha Tobias Wengerek & Benjamin Hippert & André Uhde, 2019. "Risk allocation through securitization - Evidence from non-performing loans," Working Papers Dissertations 58, Paderborn University, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics.
    16. Uddin, Ajim & Chowdhury, Mohammad Ashraful Ferdous & Sajib, Sanjay Deb & Masih, Mansur, 2020. "Revisiting the impact of institutional quality on post-GFC bank risk-taking: Evidence from emerging countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    17. Avignone, Giuseppe & Altunbas, Yener & Polizzi, Salvatore & Reghezza, Alessio, 2021. "Centralised or decentralised banking supervision? Evidence from European banks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    18. Mamatzakis, Emmanuel & Bermpei, Theodora, 2016. "What is the effect of unconventional monetary policy on bank performance?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 239-263.
    19. Jeon, Bang Nam & Wu, Ji & Chen, Limei & Chen, Minghua, 2020. "Diversification, efficiency and risk of banks: New consolidating evidence from emerging economies," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2020-10, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    20. Mariña Martínez-Malvar & Laura Baselga-Pascual, 2020. "Bank Risk Determinants in Latin America," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-20, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Probability of default; Basel regulatory framework; CAMEL indicators; SYMBOL; Financial stability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:61:y:2019:i:c:p:223-240. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/intfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.