IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v13y2015icp214-224.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Bank insolvency risk and Z-score measures: A refinement

Author

Listed:
  • Lepetit, Laetitia
  • Strobel, Frank

Abstract

We re-examine the probabilistic foundation of the link between Z-score measures and banks’ probability of insolvency, offering an improved measure of that probability without imposing further distributional assumptions. While the traditional measure of the probability of insolvency thus provides a less effective upper bound of the probability of insolvency, it can be meaningfully reinterpreted as a measure capturing the odds of insolvency instead. We similarly obtain refined probabilistic interpretations of the commonly used simple and log-transformed Z-score measures; in particular, the log of the Z-score is shown to be negatively proportional to the log odds of insolvency.

Suggested Citation

  • Lepetit, Laetitia & Strobel, Frank, 2015. "Bank insolvency risk and Z-score measures: A refinement," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 214-224.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:13:y:2015:i:c:p:214-224
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2015.01.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612315000021
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bertay, Ata Can & Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli & Huizinga, Harry, 2013. "Do we need big banks? Evidence on performance, strategy and market discipline," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 532-558.
    2. Bouvatier, Vincent & Lepetit, Laetitia & Strobel, Frank, 2014. "Bank income smoothing, ownership concentration and the regulatory environment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 253-270.
    3. John H. Boyd & Stanley L. Graham, 1986. "Risk, regulation, and bank holding company expansion into nonbanking," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 2-17.
    4. Beck, Thorsten & De Jonghe, Olivier & Schepens, Glenn, 2013. "Bank competition and stability: Cross-country heterogeneity," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 218-244.
    5. repec:hal:journl:hal-00785225 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Delis, Manthos D. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Tsionas, Efthymios G., 2014. "The risk of financial intermediaries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-12.
    7. Lepetit, Laetitia & Strobel, Frank, 2013. "Bank insolvency risk and time-varying Z-score measures," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 73-87.
    8. Fu, Xiaoqing (Maggie) & Lin, Yongjia (Rebecca) & Molyneux, Philip, 2014. "Bank competition and financial stability in Asia Pacific," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 64-77.
    9. Barry, Thierno Amadou & Lepetit, Laetitia & Tarazi, Amine, 2011. "Ownership structure and risk in publicly held and privately owned banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1327-1340, May.
    10. Laeven, Luc & Levine, Ross, 2009. "Bank governance, regulation and risk taking," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 259-275, August.
    11. DeYoung, Robert & Torna, Gökhan, 2013. "Nontraditional banking activities and bank failures during the financial crisis," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 397-421.
    12. Berger, Allen N. & Goulding, William & Rice, Tara, 2014. "Do small businesses still prefer community banks?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 264-278.
    13. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    14. Hendrik Hakenes & Iftekhar Hasan & PhilIP Molyneux & Ru Xie, 2015. "Small Banks and Local Economic Development," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(2), pages 653-683.
    15. Fang, Yiwei & Hasan, Iftekhar & Marton, Katherin, 2014. "Institutional development and bank stability: Evidence from transition countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 160-176.
    16. Boyd, John H. & Graham, Stanley L. & Hewitt, R. Shawn, 1993. "Bank holding company mergers with nonbank financial firms: Effects on the risk of failure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 43-63, February.
    17. Houston, Joel F. & Lin, Chen & Lin, Ping & Ma, Yue, 2010. "Creditor rights, information sharing, and bank risk taking," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(3), pages 485-512, June.
    18. Hannan, Timothy H & Hanweck, Gerald A, 1988. "Bank Insolvency Risk and the Market for Large Certificates of Deposit," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(2), pages 203-211, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Insolvency risk; Z-score; Probability; Odds;

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:13:y:2015:i:c:p:214-224. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.