IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/riibaf/v40y2017icp114-128.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An early warning indicator system to monitor the unsecured interbank funds market

Author

Listed:
  • Sarmiento, Miguel
  • Cely, Jorge
  • León, Carlos

Abstract

A core goal of regulators and financial authorities is to understand how market prices convey information on the financial health of its participants. From this viewpoint we build an Early-Warning Indicators System (EWIS) that allows for identifying those financial institutions perceived as risky counterparts by the participants of the interbank market. We use micro-level data from bilateral overnight unsecured loans performed in the interbank market between January 2011 and December 2014. The EWIS identifies those participants that systematically pay high prices for liquidity in this market. We employ coverage tests to estimate EWIS’ robustness and consistency. We find that financial institutions with an elevated frequency of signals tend to exhibit a net borrower liquidity position in the interbank market, hence suggesting they are facing recurrent liquidity needs. Those institutions also exhibit higher probability of insolvency measured by the Z-score indicator. Thus, our results support the existence of market discipline based on peer-monitoring. Overall, the EWIS may assist financial authorities in focusing their attention and resources on those financial institutions perceived by the market as those closer to distress.

Suggested Citation

  • Sarmiento, Miguel & Cely, Jorge & León, Carlos, 2017. "An early warning indicator system to monitor the unsecured interbank funds market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 114-128.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:40:y:2017:i:c:p:114-128
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2016.12.007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0275531916302550
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ribaf.2016.12.007?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. León, Carlos & Machado, Clara & Sarmiento, Miguel, 2018. "Identifying central bank liquidity super-spreaders in interbank funds networks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 75-92.
    2. Bertay, Ata Can & Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli & Huizinga, Harry, 2013. "Do we need big banks? Evidence on performance, strategy and market discipline," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 532-558.
    3. Camilo González & Carmiña Vargas & Luisa Silva & Andrés M. Velasco, 2014. "Uncertainty in the Money Supply Mechanism and Interbank Markets in Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 32(73), pages 36-49, July.
    4. Gale, Douglas & Yorulmazer, Tanju, 2013. "Liquidity hoarding," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 8(2), May.
    5. Falk Bräuning & Falko Fecht, 2017. "Relationship Lending in the Interbank Market and the Price of Liquidity," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(1), pages 33-75.
    6. Tabak, Benjamin M. & Fazio, Dimas M. & Cajueiro, Daniel O., 2012. "The relationship between banking market competition and risk-taking: Do size and capitalization matter?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 3366-3381.
    7. Lepetit, Laetitia & Strobel, Frank, 2013. "Bank insolvency risk and time-varying Z-score measures," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 73-87.
    8. Christoffersen, Peter, 2011. "Elements of Financial Risk Management," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 2, number 9780123744487.
    9. Thomas B. King, 2008. "Discipline and Liquidity in the Interbank Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2‐3), pages 295-317, March.
    10. Capera-Romero, Laura & Lemus-Esquivel, Juan Sebastián & Estrada, Dairo Ayiber, 2015. "Relaciones crediticias y riesgo de contagio en el mercado interbancario no colateralizado colombiano," Chapters, in: Gómez-González, José Eduardo & Ojeda-Joya, Jair N. (ed.), Política monetaria y estabilidad financiera en economías pequeñas y abiertas, chapter 18, pages 559-616, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    11. Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli & Huizinga, Harry, 2010. "Bank activity and funding strategies: The impact on risk and returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(3), pages 626-650, December.
    12. Viral V. Acharya & Ouarda Merrouche, 2013. "Precautionary Hoarding of Liquidity and Interbank Markets: Evidence from the Subprime Crisis," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(1), pages 107-160.
    13. Laeven, Luc & Levine, Ross, 2009. "Bank governance, regulation and risk taking," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 259-275, August.
    14. Paolo Angelini & Andrea Nobili & Cristina Picillo, 2011. "The Interbank Market after August 2007: What Has Changed, and Why?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(5), pages 923-958, August.
    15. Pamela A. Cardozo & Carlos A. Huertas C. & Julián A. Parra P. & Lina V. Patiño Echeverri, 2011. "Mercado interbancario colombiano y manejo de liquidez del Banco de la República," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 009017, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    16. Adam Ashcraft & James Mcandrews & David Skeie, 2011. "Precautionary Reserves and the Interbank Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(s2), pages 311-348, October.
    17. Cocco, João F. & Gomes, Francisco J. & Martins, Nuno C., 2009. "Lending relationships in the interbank market," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 24-48, January.
    18. Abbassi, Puriya & Fecht, Falko & Weber, Patrick, 2013. "How stressed are banks in the interbank market?," Discussion Papers 40/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    19. Furfine, Craig H, 2001. "Banks as Monitors of Other Banks: Evidence from the Overnight Federal Funds Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(1), pages 33-57, January.
    20. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    21. Florian Heider & Marie Hoerova, 2009. "Interbank Lending, Credit-Risk Premia, and Collateral," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(4), pages 5-43, December.
    22. Fecht, Falko & Nyborg, Kjell G. & Rocholl, Jörg, 2011. "The price of liquidity: The effects of market conditions and bank characteristics," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 344-362.
    23. Gara Afonso & Anna Kovner & Antoinette Schoar, 2011. "Stressed, Not Frozen: The Federal Funds Market in the Financial Crisis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1109-1139, August.
    24. Gorton, Gary & Metrick, Andrew, 2012. "Securitized banking and the run on repo," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 425-451.
    25. Jason Allen & Ali Hortaçsu & Jakub Kastl, 2011. "Analyzing Default Risk and Liquidity Demand during a Financial Crisis: The Case of Canada," Staff Working Papers 11-17, Bank of Canada.
    26. Mark Flannery, 2001. "The Faces of “Market Discipline”," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 20(2), pages 107-119, October.
    27. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy: A Discriminant Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 193-194, March.
    28. Miguel Sarmiento, 2016. "Market Discipline and Liquidity Risk: Evidence from the Interbank Funds Market," IHEID Working Papers 14-2016, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    29. Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau, 2006. "Market-Based Estimation of Default Probabilities and its Application to Financial Market Surveillance," IMF Working Papers 2006/104, International Monetary Fund.
    30. Lepetit, Laetitia & Strobel, Frank, 2013. "Bank insolvency risk and time-varying Z-score measures," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 73-87.
    31. Houston, Joel F. & Lin, Chen & Lin, Ping & Ma, Yue, 2010. "Creditor rights, information sharing, and bank risk taking," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(3), pages 485-512, June.
    32. Castiglionesi, Fabio & Wagner, Wolf, 2013. "On the efficiency of bilateral interbank insurance," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 177-200.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Illiashenko, Pavlo & Laidroo, Laivi, 2020. "National culture and bank risk-taking: Contradictory case of individualism," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    2. Sarmiento, Miguel & Galán, Jorge E., 2017. "The influence of risk-taking on bank efficiency: Evidence from Colombia," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 52-73.
    3. Miguel Sarmiento, 2019. "The Impact of Exogenous Liquidity Shocks on Banks Funding Costs: Microevidence from the Unsecured Interbank Market," IHEID Working Papers 01-2019, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    4. León, Carlos & Miguélez, Javier, 2021. "Interbank relationship lending revisited: Are the funds available at a similar price?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    5. Carlos León & Javier Miguélez, 2020. "Interbank relationship lending in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1118, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Miguel Sarmiento & Jorge Cely & Carlos León, 2015. "Monitoring the Unsecured Interbank Funds Market," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 014080, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    2. Miguel Sarmiento, 2016. "Market Discipline and Liquidity Risk: Evidence from the Interbank Funds Market," IHEID Working Papers 14-2016, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    3. Miguel Sarmiento, 2019. "The Impact of Exogenous Liquidity Shocks on Banks Funding Costs: Microevidence from the Unsecured Interbank Market," IHEID Working Papers 01-2019, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    4. León, Carlos & Machado, Clara & Sarmiento, Miguel, 2018. "Identifying central bank liquidity super-spreaders in interbank funds networks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 75-92.
    5. Leon Rincon, C.E., 2015. "Financial stability from a network perspective," Other publications TiSEM bb2e4e44-e842-45c6-a946-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. Martínez, Constanza & León, Carlos, 2016. "The cost of collateralized borrowing in the Colombian money market: Does connectedness matter?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 193-205.
    7. Leon Rincon, C.E. & Sarmiento, M., 2016. "Liquidity and Counterparty Risks Tradeoff in Money Market Networks," Discussion Paper 2016-017, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    8. Lepetit, Laetitia & Strobel, Frank, 2015. "Bank insolvency risk and Z-score measures: A refinement," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 214-224.
    9. Carlos León & Javier Miguélez, 2020. "Interbank relationship lending in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1118, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    10. Rainone, Edoardo, 2020. "The network nature of over-the-counter interest rates," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    11. Olivier Brossard & Susanna Saroyan, 2016. "Hoarding and short-squeezing in times of crisis: Evidence from the Euro overnight money market," Post-Print hal-01293693, HAL.
    12. Edoardo Rainone, 2017. "Pairwise trading in the money market during the European sovereign debt crisis," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1160, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    13. León, Carlos & Miguélez, Javier, 2021. "Interbank relationship lending revisited: Are the funds available at a similar price?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    14. Massimiliano Affinito, 2013. "Central bank refinancing, interbank markets, and the hypothesis of liquidity hoarding: evidence from a euro-area banking system," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 928, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    15. Zongyuan Li & Rose Neng Lai, 2022. "Interbank borrowing and bank liquidity risk," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 53-91, March.
    16. Jean-Loup, Soula, 2017. "Measuring heterogeneity in bank liquidity risk: Who are the winners and losers?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 302-313.
    17. Green, Christopher & Bai, Ye & Murinde, Victor & Ngoka, Kethi & Maana, Isaya & Tiriongo, Samuel, 2016. "Overnight interbank markets and the determination of the interbank rate: A selective survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 149-161.
    18. Bednarek, Peter & Dinger, Valeriya & von Westernhagen, Natalja, 2015. "Fundamentals matter: Idiosyncratic shocks and interbank relations," Discussion Papers 44/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    19. Mario Di Filippo & Angelo Ranaldo & Jan Wrampelmeyer, 2022. "Unsecured and Secured Funding," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(2-3), pages 651-662, March.
    20. Brossard, Olivier & Saroyan, Susanna, 2016. "Hoarding and short-squeezing in times of crisis: Evidence from the Euro overnight money market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 163-185.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Early warning indicators; Interbank markets; Market discipline; Bank risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:40:y:2017:i:c:p:114-128. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ribaf .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ribaf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.