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The risk of financial intermediaries

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  • Delis, Manthos D.
  • Hasan, Iftekhar
  • Tsionas, Efthymios G.

Abstract

This paper reconsiders the formal estimation of bank risk using the variability of the profit function. In our model, point estimates of the variability of profits are derived from a model where this variability is endogenous to other bank characteristics, such as capital and liquidity. We estimate the new model on the entire panel of US banks, spanning the period 1985q1–2012q4. The findings show that bank risk was fairly stable up to 2001 and accelerated quickly thereafter up to 2007. We also establish that the risk of the relatively large banks and banks that failed in the subprime crisis is higher than the industry’s average. Thus, we provide a new leading indicator, which is able to forecast future solvency problems of banks.

Suggested Citation

  • Delis, Manthos D. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Tsionas, Efthymios G., 2014. "The risk of financial intermediaries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-12.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:44:y:2014:i:c:p:1-12
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2014.03.024
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    Cited by:

    1. Mergaerts, Frederik & Vander Vennet, Rudi, 2016. "Business models and bank performance: A long-term perspective," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 57-75.
    2. repec:eee:jbfina:v:82:y:2017:i:c:p:203-216 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Delis, Manthos D. & Karavias, Yiannis, 2015. "Optimal versus realized bank credit risk and monetary policy," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 13-30.
    4. Lepetit, Laetitia & Strobel, Frank, 2015. "Bank insolvency risk and Z-score measures: A refinement," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 214-224.
    5. Frederik Mergaerts & Rudi Vander Vennet, 2015. "Business Models And Their Impact On Bank Performance: A Long-Term Perspective," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 15/908, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    6. Giuliana Birindelli & Paola Ferretti & Marco Savioli, 2016. "Basel 3: Does One Size Really Fit All Banks' Business Models?," Working Paper series 16-20, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    7. Michael Doumpos & Chrysovalantis Gaganis & Fotios Pasiouras, 2016. "Bank Diversification and Overall Financial Strength: International Evidence," Working Papers 1602, University of Crete, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Estimation of risk; Profit function; Financial institutions; Banks; Endogenous risk; US banking sector;

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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