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Recovering Risky Technologies Using the Almost Ideal Demand System: An Application to U.S. Banking

  • Joseph Hughes
  • William Lang
  • Loretta Mester
  • Choon-Geol Moon

Using modern duality theory to recover technologies from data can be complicated by the risk characteristics of production. In many industries, risk influences cost and revenue and can create the potential for costly episodes of financial distress. When risk is an important consideration in production, the standard cost and profit functions may not adequately describe the firm's technology and choice of production plan. In general, standard models fail to account for risk and its endogeneity. The authors distinguish between exogenous risk, which varies over the firm's choice sets, and endogenous risk, which is chosen by the firm in conjunction with its production decision. They show that, when risk matters in production decisions, it is important to account for risk's endogeneity. ; For example, better risk diversification that results, for example, from an increase in scale, improves the reward to risk-taking and may under certain conditions induce the firm to take on more risk to increase the firm's value. A choice of higher risk at a larger scale could add to costs and mask scale economies that may result from better diversification. ; This paper introduces risk into the dual model of production by constructing a utility-maximizing model in which managers choose their most preferred production plan. The authors show that the utility function that ranks production plans is equivalent to a ranking of subjective probability distributions of profit that are conditional on the production plan. The most preferred production plan results from the firm's choice of an optimal profit distribution. The model is sufficiently general to incorporate risk aversion as well as risk neutrality. Hence, it can account for the case where the potential for costly financial distress makes trading profit for reduced risk a value-maximizing strategy. ; The authors implement the model using the Almost Ideal Demand System to derive utility-maximizing share equations for profit and inputs,

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Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Financial Services Research.

Volume (Year): 18 (2000)
Issue (Month): 1 (October)
Pages: 5-27

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Handle: RePEc:kap:jfsres:v:18:y:2000:i:1:p:5-27
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  1. DeYoung, Robert E. & Hughes, Joseph P. & Moon, Choon-Geol, 2001. "Efficient risk-taking and regulatory covenant enforcement in a deregulated banking industry," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 53(2-3), pages 255-282.
  2. Allen N. Berger & Loretta J. Mester, 1997. "Inside the black box: what explains differences in the efficiencies of financial institutions?," Working Papers 97-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  3. Joseph P. Hughes & William Lang, 1997. "Recovering Technologies That Account for Generalized Managerial Preferences: An Application to Non-Risks-Neutral Banks," Departmental Working Papers 199521, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  4. Saunders, Anthony & Strock, Elizabeth & Travlos, Nickolaos G, 1990. " Ownership Structure, Deregulation, and Bank Risk Taking," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 643-54, June.
  5. Calomiris, Charles W & Kahn, Charles M, 1991. "The Role of Demandable Debt in Structuring Optimal Banking Arrangements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(3), pages 497-513, June.
  6. Hughes, Joseph P. & Lang, William W. & Mester, Loretta J. & Moon, Choon-Geol, 1999. "The dollars and sense of bank consolidation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(2-4), pages 291-324, February.
  7. Gary Gorton & Richard Rosen, . "Corporate Control, Portfolio Choice, and the Decline of Banking," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 02-93, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  8. Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1980. "An Almost Ideal Demand System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 312-26, June.
  9. Keeley, Michael C, 1990. "Deposit Insurance, Risk, and Market Power in Banking," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1183-1200, December.
  10. Joseph Hughes, 1999. "Incorporating risk into the analysis of production," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 27(1), pages 1-23, March.
  11. Joseph P. Hughes & William W. Lang & Loretta J. Mester & Choon-Geol Moon, 1996. "Efficient banking under interstate branching," Working Papers 96-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  12. Rebecca S. Demsetz & Marc R. Saidenberg & Philip E. Strahan, 1996. "Banks with something to lose: the disciplinary role of franchise value," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Oct, pages 1-14.
  13. Joseph P. Hughes & Loretta J. Mester & Moon Choo-Geol, 2000. "Are scale economies in banking elusive or illusive? evidence obtained by incorporating capital structure and risk-taking into models of bank production," Proceedings 700, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  14. Joseph P. Hughes & Loretta J. Mester, . "A Quality and Risk-Adjusted Cost Function for Banks: Evidence on the "Too-Big-To-Fail" Doctrine," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 25-92, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  15. Humphrey, David B & Pulley, Lawrence B, 1997. "Banks' Responses to Deregulation: Profits, Technology, and Efficiency," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 73-93, February.
  16. Joseph P. Hughes & Loretta J. Mester & Choon-Geol Moon, 2000. "Are Scale Economies in Banking Elusive or Illusive?," Departmental Working Papers 200004, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  17. Tufano, Peter, 1996. " Who Manages Risk? An Empirical Examination of Risk Management Practices in the Gold Mining Industry," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1097-1137, September.
  18. Choon-Goel Moon & Joseph P. Hughes, 1997. "Measuring Bank Efficiency When Managers Trade Return for Reduced Risk," Departmental Working Papers 199520, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
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