Unemployment risk and the timing of homeownership in Japan
We examine the effect of unemployment risk on the timing of homeownership applying a survival analysis approach. Empirical results from the Split Population Duration (SPD) model suggest that: (1) unemployment risk has a significantly negative effect on homeownership and delays its timing even after controlling for income variability measures, (2) the null hypothesis that every household will eventually become a homeowner is rejected, which supports the SPD model against the standard duration model, and (3) the standard duration model underestimates the effects of both unemployment risk and income variability. Finally, our simulation results indicate that changes in unemployment risk have a fairly large impact on the probability of home purchase--a 10 percentile increase in unemployment probability from its median level would reduce the probability by 2.0 percentage point, whereas comparable changes in income variability measures would reduce the probability mere 0.2-0.3 percentage points.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Di Salvo, Pamela & Ermisch, John, 1997. "Analysis of the Dynamics of Housing Tenure Choice in Britain," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 1-17, July.
- Guiso, Luigi & Jappelli, Tullio, 2002.
"Private Transfers, Borrowing Constraints and the Timing of Homeownership,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 315-39, May.
- Guiso, Luigi & Jappelli, Tullio, 1998. "Private Transfers, Borrowing Constraints and the Timing of Homeownership," CEPR Discussion Papers 2050, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Luigi Guiso & Tullio Jappelli, 1999. "Private Transfers, Borrowing Constraints and the Timing of Homeownership," CSEF Working Papers 17, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
- Christopher D Carroll & Karen E Dynan & Spencer D Krane, 1999.
"Unemployment Risk and Precautionary Wealth: Evidence from Households' Balance Sheets,"
Economics Working Paper Archive
416, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
- Christopher D. Carroll & Karen E. Dynan & Spencer D. Krane, 2003. "Unemployment Risk and Precautionary Wealth: Evidence from Households' Balance Sheets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 586-604, August.
- Christopher D. Carroll & Karen E. Dynan & Spencer D. Krane, 1999. "Unemployment risk and precautionary wealth: evidence from households' balance sheets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-15, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Stephen Machin & Alan Manning, 1998.
"The causes and consequences of long-term unemployment in Europe,"
LSE Research Online Documents on Economics
20255, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Machin, Stephen & Manning, Alan, 1999. "The causes and consequences of longterm unemployment in Europe," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 47, pages 3085-3139 Elsevier.
- Stephen Machin & Alan Manning, 1998. "The Causes and Consequences of Long-Term Unemployment in Europe," CEP Discussion Papers dp0400, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Bart COCKX & Matteo PICCHIO, 2009.
"Are Short-Lived Jobs Stepping Stones to Long-Lasting Jobs ?,"
Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales)
2009004, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
- Bart Cockx & Matteo Picchio, 2012. "Are Short-lived Jobs Stepping Stones to Long-Lasting Jobs?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(5), pages 646-675, October.
- Cockx, B. & Picchio, M., 2010. "Are Short-Lived Jobs Stepping Stones to Long-Lasting Jobs?," Discussion Paper 2010-95, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Cockx, Bart & Picchio, Matteo, 2009. "Are Short-Lived Jobs Stepping Stones to Long-Lasting Jobs?," IZA Discussion Papers 4007, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- B. Cockx & M. Picchio, 2009. "Are Short-Lived Jobs Stepping Stones to Long-Lasting Jobs?," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 09/560, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
- Bart Cockx & Matteo Picchio, 2009. "Are Short-Lived Jobs Stepping Stones to Long-Lasting Jobs?," CESifo Working Paper Series 2569, CESifo Group Munich.
- Martin Forster & Andrew Jones, 2000.
"The role of tobacco taxes in starting and quitting smoking: duration analysis of British data,"
176chedp, Centre for Health Economics, University of York.
- Martin Forster & Andrew M. Jones, 2001. "The role of tobacco taxes in starting and quitting smoking: Duration analysis of British data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 164(3), pages 517-547.
- Peter Schmidt & Ann Dryden Witte, 1987.
"Predicting Criminal Recidivism Using "Split Population" Survival Time Models,"
NBER Working Papers
2445, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Schmidt, Peter & Witte, Ann Dryden, 1989. "Predicting criminal recidivism using 'split population' survival time models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 141-159, January.
- DeSalvo, Joseph S. & Eeckhoudt, Louis R., 1982. "Household behavior under income uncertainty in a monocentric urban area," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 98-111, January.
- Mark B. Stewart, 2007.
"The interrelated dynamics of unemployment and low-wage employment,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(3), pages 511-531.
- Stewart, Mark, 2006. "The Inter-related Dynamics of Unemployment and Low-Wage Employment," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 741, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Moriizumi, Yoko, 2003. "Targeted saving by renters for housing purchase in Japan," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 494-509, May.
- Robst, John & Deitz, Richard & McGoldrick, KimMarie, 1999. "Income variability, uncertainty and housing tenure choice1," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 219-229, March.
- Diaz-Serrano, Luis, 2005.
"On the negative relationship between labor income uncertainty and homeownership: Risk-aversion vs. credit constraints,"
Journal of Housing Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 109-126, June.
- Luis Diaz-Serrano, 2005. "On the Negative Relationship between Labor Income Uncertainty and Homeownership: Risk Aversion vs. Credit Constraints," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n1460105, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
- Diaz-Serrano, Luis, 2004. "On the Negative Relationship between Labor Income Uncertainty and Homeownership: Risk Aversion vs. Credit Constraints," IZA Discussion Papers 1208, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Nickell, Stephen, 1998. "Unemployment: Questions and Some Answers," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(448), pages 802-16, May.
- van den Berg, Gerard J & van Ours, Jan C, 1996.
"Unemployment Dynamics and Duration Dependence,"
Journal of Labor Economics,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 14(1), pages 100-125, January.
- van den Berg, G. & van Ours, J.C., 1996. "Unemployment dynamics and duration dependence," Other publications TiSEM 4374742f-8d86-458d-9ab3-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Berg, G.J. & Ours, J.C., 1993. "Unemployment dynamics and duration dependence," Serie Research Memoranda 0022, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
- Belzil, Christian, 1995. "Unemployment Insurance and Unemployment over Time: An Analysis with Event History Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(1), pages 113-26, February.
- Haurin, Donald R. & Gill, H. Leroy, 1987. "Effects of income variability on the demand for owner-occupied housing," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 136-150, September.
- Fu, Yuming, 1995. "Uncertainty, liquidity, and housing choices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 223-236, April.
- Engen, Eric M. & Gruber, Jonathan, 2001. "Unemployment insurance and precautionary saving," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 545-579, June.
- Piyush Tiwari & Edwin Deutsch & Yoko Moriizumi, 2007. "Housing Finance Arrangements, Wealth Positioning and Housing Consumption in Japan: An Analysis of Built-for-sale Homeowners," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 347-367, April.
- Deutsch, Edwin & Tiwari, Piyush & Moriizumi, Yoko, 2006. "The slowdown in the timing of housing purchases in Japan in the 1990s," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 230-256, September.
- Diaz-Serrano, Luis, 2005. "Labor income uncertainty, skewness and homeownership: A panel data study for Germany and Spain," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 156-176, July.
- DeYoung, Robert, 2003. "The failure of new entrants in commercial banking markets: a split-population duration analysis," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 7-33.
- Michael P. Kidd & Sandra Hopkins, 2004. "The Hazards of Starting and Quitting Smoking: Some Australian Evidence," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(249), pages 177-192, 06.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:regeco:v:41:y:2011:i:3:p:227-235. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.