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Unemployment Risk and the Timing of Homeownership in Japan

  • Yoko Moriizumi

    (Faculty of Economics, Kanagawa University)

  • Michio Naoi

    (Faculty of Business and Commerce, Keio University)

The effect of unemployment risk on the timing of homeownership is examined through the use of a retrospective panel of Japanese households. We obtain the following results by applying the split population duration (SPD) model: (1) unemployment risk, as proxied by the probability of unemployment, has a significantly negative effect on homeownership and delays its timing, (2) the effect of unemployment risk is overestimated in previous studies, which assume that all households will eventually become homeowners, and (3) household characteristics as well as the conditions of housing and labour markets at the early stages of a household's life cycle play an important role in the determination of its housing purchase. Finally, our simulation results indicate that an initial one-year unemployment spell will have a fairly large impact of 1.6-year delay in the timing of a subsequent home purchase.

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Paper provided by Keio/Kyoto Joint Global COE Program in its series Keio/Kyoto Joint Global COE Discussion Paper Series with number 2008-026.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kei:dpaper:2008-026
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Web page: http://ies.keio.ac.jp/old_project/old/gcoe-econbus/

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  1. Piyush Tiwari & Edwin Deutsch & Yoko Moriizumi, 2007. "Housing Finance Arrangements, Wealth Positioning and Housing Consumption in Japan: An Analysis of Built-for-sale Homeowners," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 347-367, April.
  2. van den Berg, Gerard J & van Ours, Jan C, 1996. "Unemployment Dynamics and Duration Dependence," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 14(1), pages 100-125, January.
  3. Haurin, Donald R. & Gill, H. Leroy, 1987. "Effects of income variability on the demand for owner-occupied housing," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 136-150, September.
  4. Luigi Guiso & Tullio Jappelli, 1999. "Private Transfers, Borrowing Constraints and the Timing of Homeownership," CSEF Working Papers 17, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  5. Stephen Machin & Alan Manning, 1998. "The causes and consequences of long-term unemployment in Europe," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 20255, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  6. Schmidt, Peter & Witte, Ann Dryden, 1989. "Predicting criminal recidivism using 'split population' survival time models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 141-159, January.
  7. Robst, John & Deitz, Richard & McGoldrick, KimMarie, 1999. "Income variability, uncertainty and housing tenure choice1," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 219-229, March.
  8. Deutsch, Edwin & Tiwari, Piyush & Moriizumi, Yoko, 2006. "The slowdown in the timing of housing purchases in Japan in the 1990s," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 230-256, September.
  9. Moriizumi, Yoko, 2003. "Targeted saving by renters for housing purchase in Japan," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 494-509, May.
  10. Nickell, Stephen, 1998. "Unemployment: Questions and Some Answers," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(448), pages 802-16, May.
  11. Cockx, Bart & Picchio, Matteo, 2009. "Are Short-Lived Jobs Stepping Stones to Long-Lasting Jobs?," IZA Discussion Papers 4007, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  12. Michael P. Kidd & Sandra Hopkins, 2004. "The Hazards of Starting and Quitting Smoking: Some Australian Evidence," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(249), pages 177-192, 06.
  13. Diaz-Serrano, Luis, 2004. "On the Negative Relationship between Labor Income Uncertainty and Homeownership: Risk Aversion vs. Credit Constraints," IZA Discussion Papers 1208, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  14. Fu, Yuming, 1995. "Uncertainty, liquidity, and housing choices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 223-236, April.
  15. Christopher D. Carroll & Karen E. Dynan & Spencer D. Krane, 1999. "Unemployment risk and precautionary wealth: evidence from households' balance sheets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-15, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  16. Diaz-Serrano, Luis, 2005. "Labor income uncertainty, skewness and homeownership: A panel data study for Germany and Spain," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 156-176, July.
  17. Martin Forster & Andrew Jones, 2000. "The role of tobacco taxes in starting and quitting smoking: duration analysis of British data," Working Papers 176chedp, Centre for Health Economics, University of York.
  18. Belzil, Christian, 1995. "Unemployment Insurance and Unemployment over Time: An Analysis with Event History Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(1), pages 113-26, February.
  19. van den Berg, G. & van Ours, J.C., 1996. "Unemployment dynamics and duration dependence," Other publications TiSEM 4374742f-8d86-458d-9ab3-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  20. Mark B. Stewart, 2007. "The interrelated dynamics of unemployment and low-wage employment," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(3), pages 511-531.
  21. DeSalvo, Joseph S. & Eeckhoudt, Louis R., 1982. "Household behavior under income uncertainty in a monocentric urban area," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 98-111, January.
  22. Di Salvo, Pamela & Ermisch, John, 1997. "Analysis of the Dynamics of Housing Tenure Choice in Britain," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 1-17, July.
  23. DeYoung, Robert, 2003. "The failure of new entrants in commercial banking markets: a split-population duration analysis," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 7-33.
  24. Engen, Eric M. & Gruber, Jonathan, 2001. "Unemployment insurance and precautionary saving," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 545-579, June.
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