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Behavioural simulations in spot electricity markets

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  • Banal-Estañol, Albert
  • Rupérez Micola, Augusto

Abstract

We study the consistency of behavioural simulation methods used to model the operations of wholesale electricity markets. We include different supply and demand representations and propose the Experience-Weighted Attractions method (Camerer and Ho, 1999) to encompass several behavioural paradigms. We compare the results across assumptions and to standard economic theory predictions. The match is good under flat and upward-slopping supply bidding, and also for plausible demand elasticity assumptions. Learning is influenced by the number of bids per plant and the initial conditions. The simulations perform best under reinforcement learning, less well under best-response and especially poorly under fictitious play. The overall conclusion is that simulation assumptions are far from innocuous. We link their performance to underlying features, and identify those that are better suited to model liberalised electricity markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Banal-Estañol, Albert & Rupérez Micola, Augusto, 2011. "Behavioural simulations in spot electricity markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 214(1), pages 147-159, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:214:y:2011:i:1:p:147-159
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    3. Balint, T. & Lamperti, F. & Mandel, A. & Napoletano, M. & Roventini, A. & Sapio, A., 2017. "Complexity and the Economics of Climate Change: A Survey and a Look Forward," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 252-265.
    4. Jean-Luc Gaffard & Mauro Napoletano, 2012. "Agent-based models and economic policy," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/53r60a8s3ku, Sciences Po.
    5. Cristian Zambrano & Yris Olaya, 2017. "An agent-based simulation approach to congestion management for the Colombian electricity market," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 258(2), pages 217-236, November.
    6. Miguel Pérez de Arce and Enzo Sauma, 2016. "Comparison of Incentive Policies for Renewable Energy in an Oligopolistic Market with Price-Responsive Demand," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    7. Sapio, Alessandro, 2019. "Greener, more integrated, and less volatile? A quantile regression analysis of Italian wholesale electricity prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 452-469.
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    9. Hesamzadeh, Mohammad R. & Biggar, Darryl R. & Hosseinzadeh, Nasser, 2011. "The TC-PSI indicator for forecasting the potential for market power in wholesale electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 5988-5998, October.
    10. Sapio, Alessandro & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2016. "Price regimes in an energy island: Tacit collusion vs. cost and network explanations," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 157-172.

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