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Learning and equilibrium as useful approximations: Accuracy of prediction on randomly selected constant sum games

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  • Ido Erev
  • Alvin Roth
  • Robert Slonim
  • Greg Barron

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  • Ido Erev & Alvin Roth & Robert Slonim & Greg Barron, 2007. "Learning and equilibrium as useful approximations: Accuracy of prediction on randomly selected constant sum games," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 33(1), pages 29-51, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:joecth:v:33:y:2007:i:1:p:29-51
    DOI: 10.1007/s00199-007-0214-y
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    1. Sarin, Rajiv & Vahid, Farshid, 2001. "Predicting How People Play Games: A Simple Dynamic Model of Choice," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 104-122, January.
    2. Fudenberg, Drew & Levine, David, 1998. "Learning in games," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-5), pages 631-639, May.
    3. Wooders, John & Shachat, Jason M., 2001. "On the Irrelevance of Risk Attitudes in Repeated Two-Outcome Games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 342-363, February.
    4. Jörgen W. Weibull, 2004. "Testing Game Theory," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Steffen Huck (ed.), Advances in Understanding Strategic Behaviour, chapter 6, pages 85-104, Palgrave Macmillan.
    5. Ochs, Jack & Roth, Alvin E, 1989. "An Experimental Study of Sequential Bargaining," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(3), pages 355-384, June.
    6. Roth, Alvin E. & Erev, Ido, 1995. "Learning in extensive-form games: Experimental data and simple dynamic models in the intermediate term," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 164-212.
    7. Axel Ockenfels & Gary E. Bolton, 2000. "ERC: A Theory of Equity, Reciprocity, and Competition," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(1), pages 166-193, March.
    8. Bornstein, Gary & Winter, Eyal & Goren, Harel, 1996. "Experimental study of repeated team-games," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 629-639, December.
    9. Timothy C. Salmon, 2001. "An Evaluation of Econometric Models of Adaptive Learning," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1597-1628, November.
    10. Charles A. Holt & Jacob K. Goeree, 1999. "Stochastic Game Theory: For Playing Games, Not Just for Doing Theory," Virginia Economics Online Papers 306, University of Virginia, Department of Economics.
    11. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Friedman, Daniel, 1997. "Individual Learning in Normal Form Games: Some Laboratory Results," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 46-76, April.
    12. Jim Engle-Warnick & Robert Slonim, 2006. "Inferring repeated-game strategies from actions: evidence from trust game experiments," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 28(3), pages 603-632, August.
    13. Erev, Ido & Bereby-Meyer, Yoella & Roth, Alvin E., 1999. "The effect of adding a constant to all payoffs: experimental investigation, and implications for reinforcement learning models," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 111-128, May.
    14. repec:hrv:faseco:33445961 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Sunil Gupta & Peter C. Wilton, 1987. "Combination of Forecasts: An Extension," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(3), pages 356-372, March.
    16. Nick Feltovich, 2000. "Reinforcement-Based vs. Belief-Based Learning Models in Experimental Asymmetric-Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 605-642, May.
    17. Erev, Ido & Roth, Alvin E, 1998. "Predicting How People Play Games: Reinforcement Learning in Experimental Games with Unique, Mixed Strategy Equilibria," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(4), pages 848-881, September.
    18. Brown, James N & Rosenthal, Robert W, 1990. "Testing the Minimax Hypothesis: A Re-examination of O'Neill's Game Experiment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(5), pages 1065-1081, September.
    19. David J. Cooper & Susan Garvin & John H. Kagel, 1997. "Signalling and Adaptive Learning in an Entry Limit Pricing Game," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 28(4), pages 662-683, Winter.
    20. Drew Fudenberg & David K. Levine, 1998. "The Theory of Learning in Games," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262061945.
    21. Erev, Ido & Roth, Alvin E. & Slonim, Robert L. & Barron, Greg, 2002. "Predictive value and the usefulness of game theoretic models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 359-368.
    22. Alvin E. Roth, 2002. "The Economist as Engineer: Game Theory, Experimentation, and Computation as Tools for Design Economics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(4), pages 1341-1378, July.
    23. Erev, Ido & Rapoport, Amnon, 1998. "Coordination, "Magic," and Reinforcement Learning in a Market Entry Game," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 146-175, May.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ofir Yakobi & Doron Cohen & Eitan Naveh & Ido Erev, 2020. "Reliance on small samples and the value of taxing reckless behaviors," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 15(2), pages 266-281, March.
    2. David Azriel & Yosef Rinott, 2014. "On measuring and comparing usefulness of statistical models," Discussion Paper Series dp669, The Federmann Center for the Study of Rationality, the Hebrew University, Jerusalem.
    3. Albert Banal-Estañol & Augusto Rupérez-Micola, 2010. "Are agent-based simulations robust? The wholesale electricity trading case," Economics Working Papers 1214, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    4. Robert Östling & Joseph Tao-yi Wang & Eileen Y. Chou & Colin F. Camerer, 2011. "Testing Game Theory in the Field: Swedish LUPI Lottery Games," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 1-33, August.
    5. Banal-Estañol, Albert & Rupérez Micola, Augusto, 2011. "Behavioural simulations in spot electricity markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 214(1), pages 147-159, October.
    6. Topi Miettinen, 2012. "Paying attention to payoffs in analogy-based learning," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 50(1), pages 193-222, May.
    7. W Chen & Y Chen & D Levine, 2015. "A Unifying Learning Framework for Building Artificial Game-Playing Agents," Levine's Working Paper Archive 786969000000001002, David K. Levine.
    8. Davide Marchiori & Sibilla Di Guida & Ido Erev, 2013. "Noisy retrievers and the four-fold reaction to rare events," Working Papers 3, Department of Management, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia.
    9. repec:cla:levarc:786969000000001297 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Yan Chen & Tayfun Sönmez, 2002. "Improving Efficiency of On-Campus Housing: An Experimental Study," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1669-1686, December.
    11. Hanan Shteingart & Tal Neiman & Yonatan Loewenstein, 2012. "The Role of First Impression in Operant Learning," Discussion Paper Series dp626, The Federmann Center for the Study of Rationality, the Hebrew University, Jerusalem.
    12. Bin Xu & Zhijian Wang, 2012. "Evolutionary Dynamical Pattern of 'Coyness and Philandering': Evidence from Experimental Economics," Levine's Working Paper Archive 786969000000000577, David K. Levine.
    13. Wang, Yijia & Chen, Xiaojie & Wang, Zhijian, 2017. "Testability of evolutionary game dynamics based on experimental economics data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 486(C), pages 455-464.
    14. Noga Alon & Kirill Rudov & Leeat Yariv, 2021. "Dominance Solvability in Random Games," Working Papers 2021-84, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    15. Drew Fudenberg & Jon Kleinberg & Annie Liang & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2019. "Measuring the Completeness of Theories," Papers 1910.07022, arXiv.org.
    16. Nick Feltovich, 2000. "Reinforcement-Based vs. Belief-Based Learning Models in Experimental Asymmetric-Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 605-642, May.
    17. John J Nay & Yevgeniy Vorobeychik, 2016. "Predicting Human Cooperation," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(5), pages 1-19, May.
    18. Zhijian Wang & Yanran Zhou & Jaimie W. Lien & Jie Zheng & Bin Xu, 2016. "Extortion Can Outperform Generosity in the Iterated Prisoners' Dilemma," Levine's Bibliography 786969000000001297, UCLA Department of Economics.
    19. Eyal Ert & Ido Erev & Alvin E. Roth, 2011. "A Choice Prediction Competition for Social Preferences in Simple Extensive Form Games: An Introduction," Games, MDPI, vol. 2(3), pages 1-20, July.
    20. repec:hrv:faseco:32067416 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Roth, Alvin E. & Herzog, Stefan & Hau, Robin & Hertwig, Ralph & Erev, Ido & Ert, Eyal & Haruvy, Ernan & Stewart, Terrence & West, Robert & Lebiere, Christian, 2009. "A Choice Prediction Competition: Choices From Experience and From Description," Scholarly Articles 5343169, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    22. Ido Erev & Alvin E. Roth & Robert Slonim, 2016. "Minimax across a population of games," Journal of the Economic Science Association, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 2(2), pages 144-156, November.
    23. Mauersberger, Felix, 2019. "Thompson Sampling: Endogenously Random Behavior in Games and Markets," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203600, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    C72; C90;

    JEL classification:

    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • C90 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - General

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