Noisy retrievers and the four-fold reaction to rare events
Previous research documents two pairs of inconsistent reactions to rare events: 1) Studies of probability judgment reveal conservatism which implies overestimation of rare events, and overconfidence which implies underestimation of rare events. 2) Studies of choice behavior reveal overweighting of rare events in one-shot tasks, and the opposite bias in decisions from experience. The current analysis and experimental results demonstrate that the coexistence and relative importance of the four biases can be captured with simple models that share the assumption that judgments and decisions are made based on the information conveyed by small and noisy samples of past experiences.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2013|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: San Giobbe, Cannaregio 873, 30121 Venezia|
Phone: +39 0412348721
Fax: +39 0412348701
Web page: http://www.unive.it/dip.management
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Itzhak Gilboa & David Schmeidler, 1995.
"Case-Based Decision Theory,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 110(3), pages 605-639.
- Itzhak Gilboa & David Schmeidler, 1992. "Case-Based Decision Theory," Discussion Papers 994, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Itzhak Gilboa & David Schmeidler, 1995. "Case-Based Decision Theory," Post-Print hal-00753144, HAL.
- Craig R. Fox & Amos Tversky, 1995. "Ambiguity Aversion and Comparative Ignorance," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(3), pages 585-603.
- Reinhard Selten & Thorsten Chmura, 2008. "Stationary Concepts for Experimental 2x2-Games," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 938-966, June.
- Reinhard Selten & Thorsten Chmura, 2005. "Stationary Concepts for Experimental 2x2 Games," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers bgse33_2005, University of Bonn, Germany.
- Colin Camerer & Teck-Hua Ho, 1999. "Experience-weighted Attraction Learning in Normal Form Games," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(4), pages 827-874, July.
- Ido Erev & Ira Glozman & Ralph Hertwig, 2008. "What impacts the impact of rare events," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 153-177, April.
- Drew Fudenberg & David K. Levine, 1998. "The Theory of Learning in Games," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262061945, September.
- Drew Fudenberg & David K. Levine, 1996. "The Theory of Learning in Games," Levine's Working Paper Archive 624, David K. Levine.
- Gayer, Gabrielle, 2010. "Perception of probabilities in situations of risk: A case based approach," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 130-143, January.
- Wakker,Peter P., 2010. "Prospect Theory," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521765015, October.
- Wakker,Peter P., 2010. "Prospect Theory," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521748681, October.
- Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-291, March.
- Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7656, David K. Levine.
- Viscusi, W Kip, 1989. "Prospective Reference Theory: Toward an Explanation of the Paradoxes," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 235-263, September.
- Milton Friedman & L. J. Savage, 1948. "The Utility Analysis of Choices Involving Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56, pages 279-279. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vnm:wpdman:39. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marco LiCalzi)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.