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Competition under Incomplete Contracts and the Design of Procurement Policies

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  • Rodrigo Carril
  • Andres Gonzalez-Lira
  • Michael S. Walker

Abstract

We study the effects of intensifying competition for contracts in the context of US Defense procurement. Leveraging a discontinuous regulation that mandates agencies to publicize certain contract opportunities, we document that expanding the set of bidders reduces award prices but deteriorates post-award performance in terms of cost overruns and delays. We develop and estimate an auction model with endogenous entry and stochastic execution performance, in which the buyer endogenously chooses the intensity of competition. Model estimates indicate substantial heterogeneity in performance across contractors and show that simple adjustments to the current regulation could provide significant savings in procurement spending.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodrigo Carril & Andres Gonzalez-Lira & Michael S. Walker, 2026. "Competition under Incomplete Contracts and the Design of Procurement Policies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 116(2), pages 535-581, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:116:y:2026:i:2:p:535-81
    DOI: 10.1257/aer.20221345
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    3. Allende, Claudia & Atal, Juan Pablo & Carril, Rodrigo & Cuesta, José Ignacio & González-Lira, Andrés, 2024. "Drivers of public procurement prices: Evidence from pharmaceutical markets," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    4. J. Atsu Amegashie, 2024. "Rules, Discretion, Corruption, and Efficient Sole-Sourcing in Procurement," CESifo Working Paper Series 11489, CESifo.
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    6. Cappelletti, Matilde & Giuffrida, Leonardo M., 2022. "Targeted bidders in government tenders," ZEW Discussion Papers 22-030, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    7. Catherine Wolfram & Edward Miguel & Eric Hsu & Susanna B. Berkouwer, 2023. "Donor Contracting Conditions and Public Procurement: Causal Evidence from Kenyan Electrification," NBER Working Papers 30948, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Rodrigo Carril & Audrey Guo, 2023. "The impact of preference programs in public procurement: Evidence from veteran set-asides," Economics Working Papers 1876, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    9. Daniel Prudencio, 2023. "Productivity in Procurement Auctions of Pavement Contracts in Mexico," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 63-85, August.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • D44 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Auctions
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D86 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Economics of Contract Law
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • H57 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Procurement

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