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Citations for "Predicting the Equity Premium with Dividend Ratios"

by Amit Goyal & Ivo Welch

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  1. Hui Guo & Robert Savickas, 2003. "On the cross section of conditionally expected stock returns," Working Papers 2003-043, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  2. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2011. "Forecasting the Equity Risk Premium: The Role of Technical Indicators," Working Papers CoFie-02-2011, Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics.
  3. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E. & Rangvid, Jesper, 2005. "Macro variables and international stock return predictability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 137-166.
  4. Bertrand Candelon & Jameel Ahmed & Stefan Straetmans, 2014. "Predicting and Capitalizing on Stock Market Bears in the U.S," Working Papers 2014-409, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  5. Henkel, Sam James & Martin, J. Spencer & Nardari, Federico, 2011. "Time-varying short-horizon predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 560-580, March.
  6. Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2008. "Expected Inflation, Expected Stock Returns, and Money Illusion: What can we learn from Survey Expectations?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-036, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  7. Ivo Welch & Amit Goyal, 2004. "A Note On 'Predicting Returns With Financial Ratios'," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2465, Yale School of Management.
  8. Lubos Pástor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 2009. "Predictive Systems: Living with Imperfect Predictors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1583-1628, 08.
  9. Schrimpf, Andreas, 2008. "International Stock Return Predictability Under Model Uncertainty," ZEW Discussion Papers 08-048, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  10. Gene Amromin & Steven Sharpe, 2005. "From the horse’s mouth: gauging conditional expected stock returns from investor surveys," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Campbell, John Y. & Yogo, Motohiro, 2006. "Efficient tests of stock return predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 27-60, July.
  12. Fang, Jiali & Jacobsen, Ben & Qin, Yafeng, 2014. "Predictability of the simple technical trading rules: An out-of-sample test," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 30-45.
  13. Ralf Becker & Junsoo Lee & Benton Gup, 2012. "An empirical analysis of mean reversion of the S&P 500’s P/E ratios," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 675-690, July.
  14. Jakob B. Madsen & E. Philip Davis, 2004. "Equity Prices, Productivity Growth, and the 'New Economy'," EPRU Working Paper Series 04-05, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  15. Drobetz, Wolfgang & Kugler, Peter & Wanzenried, Gabrielle & Zimmermann, Heinz, 2009. "Heterogeneity in asset allocation decisions: Empirical evidence from Switzerland," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(1-2), pages 84-93, March.
  16. Georges Prat, 2010. "Equity Risk Premium and Time Horizon : What do the U.S. Secular Data Say ?," EconomiX Working Papers 2010-22, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  17. Lettau, Martin & Ludvigson, Sydney C., 2005. "Expected returns and expected dividend growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 583-626, June.
  18. Martin Lettau & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2008. "Reconciling the Return Predictability Evidence," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1607-1652, July.
  19. Jesper Rangvid & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2010. "Dividend predictability around the world," CREATES Research Papers 2010-03, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  20. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Combining forecasts from nested models," Research Working Paper RWP 06-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  21. Koijen, R.S.J. & Nijman, T.E. & Werker, B.J.M., 2006. "Optimal Portfolio Choice with Annuitization," Discussion Paper 2006-78, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  22. Döpke, Jörg & Hartmann, Daniel & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2008. "Real-time macroeconomic data and ex ante stock return predictability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 274-290.
  23. Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models," Research Working Paper RWP 05-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  24. Chen, Sichong, 2012. "The predictability of aggregate Japanese stock returns: Implications of dividend yield," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 284-304.
  25. Barnhart, Scott W. & Giannetti, Antoine, 2009. "Negative earnings, positive earnings and stock return predictability: An empirical examination of market timing," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 70-86, January.
  26. Erik Hjalmarsson, 2006. "Should we expect significant out-of-sample results when predicting stock returns?," International Finance Discussion Papers 855, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  27. Ferson, Wayne E. & Sarkissian, Sergei & Simin, Timothy, 2008. "Asset Pricing Models with Conditional Betas and Alphas: The Effects of Data Snooping and Spurious Regression," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(02), pages 331-353, June.
  28. Benjamin Chiquoine & Erik Hjalmarsson, 2008. "Jackknifing stock return predictions," International Finance Discussion Papers 932, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  29. Guo, Hui & Savickas, Robert, 2006. "Idiosyncratic Volatility, Stock Market Volatility, and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 43-56, January.
  30. Han, Yufeng, 2012. "State uncertainty in stock markets: How big is the impact on the cost of equity?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 2575-2592.
  31. repec:wyi:journl:002108 is not listed on IDEAS
  32. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010. "Reality checks and nested forecast model comparisons," Working Papers 2010-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  33. Zhu, Xiaoneng & Zhu, Jie, 2013. "Predicting stock returns: A regime-switching combination approach and economic links," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4120-4133.
  34. Rangvid, Jesper, 2006. "Output and expected returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 595-624, September.
  35. Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta & Mampho P. Modise, 2012. "Structural Breaks and Predictive Regressions Models of South African Equity Premium," Working Papers 201209, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  36. John Theis & Amitabh S. Dutta, 2009. "Explanatory factors of bank dividend policy: revisited," Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 35(6), pages 501-508, May.
  37. Timmermann, Allan, 2008. "Elusive return predictability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 1-18.
  38. Michael W. Brandt & Qiang Kang, 2002. "On the Relationship Between the Conditional Mean and Volatility of Stock Returns: A Latent VAR Approach," NBER Working Papers 9056, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  39. Wayne E. Ferson & Andrew F. Siegel, 2006. "Testing Portfolio Efficiency with Conditioning Information," NBER Working Papers 12098, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  40. Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan G. Timmermann & Rossen I. Valkanov, 2008. "Return Predictability under Equilibrium Constraints on the Equity Premium," Working Papers 37, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School.
  41. Guidolin, Massimo & Ono, Sadayuki, 2006. "Are the dynamic linkages between the macroeconomy and asset prices time-varying?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(5-6), pages 480-518.
  42. Shanken, Jay & Tamayo, Ane, 2012. "Payout yield, risk, and mispricing: A Bayesian analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 131-152.
  43. Haiqiang Chen & Ying Fang & Yingxing Li, 2013. "Estimation and Inference for Varying-coefficient Models with Nonstationary Regressors using Penalized Splines," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2013-033, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  44. Wayne E. Ferson & Sergei Sarkissian & Timothy T. Simin, 2003. "Spurious Regressions in Financial Economics?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(4), pages 1393-1414, 08.
  45. John H. Cochrane, 2006. "The Dog That Did Not Bark: A Defense of Return Predictability," NBER Working Papers 12026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  46. Oliver Linton & Anisha Ghosh, 2007. "Consistent Estimation of the Risk-Return Tradeoff in the Presence of Measurement Error," FMG Discussion Papers dp605, Financial Markets Group.
  47. Brandt, Michael W. & Kang, Qiang, 2004. "On the relationship between the conditional mean and volatility of stock returns: A latent VAR approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 217-257, May.
  48. repec:ecu:wpaper:2009-08 is not listed on IDEAS
  49. Hui Guo & Jason Higbee, 2006. "Market timing with aggregate and idiosyncratic stock volatilities," Working Papers 2005-073, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  50. John Y. Campbell & Samuel B. Thompson, 2005. "Predicting the Equity Premium Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2084, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  51. Biqing Cai & Jiti Gao, 2013. "Hermite Series Estimation in Nonlinear Cointegrating Models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 17/13, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  52. Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Using Out-of-Sample Mean Squared Prediction Errors to Test the Martingale Difference," NBER Technical Working Papers 0305, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  53. Hjalmarsson, Erik, 2005. "On the Predictability of Global Stock Returns," Working Papers in Economics 161, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
  54. Roman Kraeussl & Christian Wiehenkamp, 2012. "A call on art investments," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 1-23, April.
  55. Tano Santos & Pietro Veronesi, 2004. "Conditional Betas," NBER Working Papers 10413, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  56. Mazzotta, Stefano, 2008. "How important is asymmetric covariance for the risk premium of international assets?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1636-1647, August.
  57. Dimpfl, Thomas & Jank, Stephan, 2011. "Can Internet search queries help to predict stock market volatility?," University of Tuebingen Working Papers in Economics and Finance 18, University of Tuebingen, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences.
  58. repec:wyi:wpaper:002011 is not listed on IDEAS
  59. Jank, Stephan, 2012. "Changes in the composition of publicly traded firms: Implications for the dividend-price ratio and return predictability," CFR Working Papers 12-08, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
  60. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2006. "In-sample vs. out-of-sample tests of stock return predictability in the context of data mining," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 231-247, March.
  61. Christian Pierdzioch & Andrea Schertler, 2006. "Investing in European Stock Markets for High-Technology Firms," Kiel Working Papers 1265, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  62. Michael Cooper & Huseyin Gulen, 2006. "Is Time-Series-Based Predictability Evident in Real Time?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(3), pages 1263-1292, May.
  63. Ralph S.J. Koijen & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2010. "Predictability of Returns and Cash Flows," NBER Working Papers 16648, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  64. Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann & Rossen Valkanov, 2013. "Forecasting Stock Returns under Economic Constraints," Working Papers 57, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School.
  65. Neil Kellard & John Nankervis & Fotis Papadimitriou, 2007. "Predicting the UK Equity Premium with Dividend Ratios: An Out-Of-Sample Recursive Residuals Graphical Approach," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 129, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  66. Buraschi Andrea & Carnelli Andrea, 2013. "The economic value of predictability in portfolio management," Journal of Financial Management, Markets and Institutions, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 11-25, January.
  67. Ana Sequeira, 2013. "Predicting aggregate returns using valuation ratios out-of-sample," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  68. Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Robert Whitelaw, 2005. "The Myth of Long-Horizon Predictability," NBER Working Papers 11841, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  69. Guo, Hui, 2006. "Time-varying risk premia and the cross section of stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 2087-2107, July.
  70. Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2006. "Using out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors to test the martingale difference hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 155-186.
  71. Blake LeBaron, 2010. "Heterogeneous Gain Learning and Long Swings in Asset Prices," Working Papers 10, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School.
  72. John Cochrane, 2005. "Financial Markets and the Real Economy," NBER Working Papers 11193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  73. Paye, Bradley S. & Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Instability of return prediction models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 274-315, June.
  74. Borja Larrain & Motohiro Yogo, 2005. "Does firm value move too much to be justified by subsequent changes in cash flow?," Working Papers 05-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  75. Hoevenaars, Roy P.M.M. & Molenaar, Roderick D.J. & Schotman, Peter C. & Steenkamp, Tom B.M., 2008. "Strategic asset allocation with liabilities: Beyond stocks and bonds," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 2939-2970, September.
  76. Bansal, Ravi & Khatchatrian, Varoujan & Yaron, Amir, 2005. "Interpretable asset markets?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 531-560, April.
  77. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Donald Robertson & Stephen Wright, 2008. "Miller and Modigliani, Predictive Return Regressions and Cointegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(2), pages 181-207, 04.
  78. Amit Goval & Ivo Welch, 2004. "A Comprehensive Look at the Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," NBER Working Papers 10483, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  79. Tim Bollerslev & George Tauchen & Hao Zhou, 2009. "Expected Stock Returns and Variance Risk Premia," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4463-4492, November.
  80. Gene Amromin & Steven A. Sharpe, 2008. "Expectations of risk and return among household investors: Are their Sharpe ratios countercyclical?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-17, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  81. Donald Robertson & Stephen Wright, 2006. "Dividends, Total Cash Flow to Shareholders, and Predictive Return Regressions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(1), pages 91-99, February.
  82. Aretz, Kevin & Bartram, Söhnke M. & Pope, Peter F., 2011. "Asymmetric loss functions and the rationality of expected stock returns," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 413-437, April.
  83. Wayne E. Ferson & Andrea Heuson & Tie Su, 2005. "Weak and Semi-Strong Form Stock Return Predictability Revisited," NBER Working Papers 11021, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  84. Guidolin, Massimo & McMillan, David G. & Wohar, Mark E., 2013. "Time varying stock return predictability: Evidence from US sectors," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 34-40.
  85. Peter Sephton, 2005. "Predicting the equity premium with dividend ratios: a matter of balance," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 145-147.
  86. Avramov, Doron & Chordia, Tarun, 2006. "Predicting stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 387-415, November.
  87. Carlo A. Favero & Arie E. Gozluklu & Andrea Tamoni, 2010. "Demographic Trends, the Dividend-Price Ratio and the Predictability of Long-Run Stock Market Returns," Working Papers 360, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  88. Tom Engsted & Stig V. Møller & Magnus Sander, 2013. "Bond return predictability in expansions and recessions," CREATES Research Papers 2013-13, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  89. Maenhout, Pascal J., 2006. "Robust portfolio rules and detection-error probabilities for a mean-reverting risk premium," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 136-163, May.
  90. Charlotte Christiansen & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2010. "A Comprehensive Look at Financial Volatility Prediction by Economic Variables," CREATES Research Papers 2010-58, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  91. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2011. "Performance Evaluation of Zero Net-Investment Strategies," NBER Working Papers 17150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  92. Boucher, Christophe, 2006. "Stock prices-inflation puzzle and the predictability of stock market returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 205-212, February.
  93. Anne Vila Wetherilt & Simon Wells, 2004. "Long-horizon equity return predictability: some new evidence for the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 244, Bank of England.
  94. Huang, Wei, 2007. "Financial integration and the price of world covariance risk: Large- vs. small-cap stocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 1311-1337, December.
  95. Christensen, Bent Jesper & Raahauge, Peter, 2004. "Latent Utility Shocks in a Structural Empirical Asset Pricing Model," Working Papers 2004-7, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Finance.
  96. Charlotte S. Hansen & Bjorn E. Tuypens, 2004. "Long-Run Regressions: Theory and Application to US Asset Markets," Finance 0410018, EconWPA.
  97. David le Bris & William N. Goetzmann & Sébastien Pouget, 2014. "Testing Asset Pricing Theory on Six Hundred Years of Stock Returns: Prices and Dividends for the Bazacle Company from 1372 to 1946," NBER Working Papers 20199, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  98. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2009. "Do macroeconomic variables have regime-dependent effects on stock return dynamics? Evidence from the Markov regime switching model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1283-1299, November.
  99. Anton Andriyashin & Wolfgang Härdle & Roman Timofeev, 2008. "Recursive Portfolio Selection with Decision Trees," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-009, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  100. Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Advances in Forecasting Under Instability," Working Papers 11-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  101. Khan, Muhammad Irfan Khan & Meher, Muhammad Ayub Khan Mehar & Syed, Syed Muhammad Kashif, 2013. "Impact of Inflation on Dividend Policy: Synchronization of Capital Gain and Interest Rate," MPRA Paper 51593, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Nov 2013.
  102. Fletcher, Jonathan & Hillier, Joe, 2005. "An examination of linear factor models in country equity asset allocation strategies," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-5), pages 808-823, September.
  103. David Rey, 2005. "Market Timing And Model Uncertainty: An Exploratory Study For The Swiss Stock Market," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 239-260, October.
  104. Chen, Long, 2009. "On the reversal of return and dividend growth predictability: A tale of two periods," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 128-151, April.
  105. Puneet Handa, 2006. "Does Stock Return Predictability Imply Improved Asset Allocation and Performance? Evidence from the U.S. Stock Market (1954–2002)," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(5), pages 2423-2468, September.
  106. Zhu, Yingzi & Zhou, Guofu, 2009. "Technical analysis: An asset allocation perspective on the use of moving averages," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(3), pages 519-544, June.
  107. Wayne E. Ferson & Andrea Heuson & Tie Su, 2005. "Weak-Form and Semi-Strong-Form Stock Return Predictability Revisited," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(10), pages 1582-1592, October.
  108. Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti & Pessôa, Samuel & Santos, Marcelo dos, 2014. "Globalization and the Industrial Revolution," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 753, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  109. Hui Guo, 2003. "On the out-of-sample predictability of stock market returns," Working Papers 2002-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  110. Kellard, Neil M. & Nankervis, John C. & Papadimitriou, Fotios I., 2010. "Predicting the equity premium with dividend ratios: Reconciling the evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 539-551, September.
  111. repec:wyi:journl:002195 is not listed on IDEAS
  112. Massimo Guidolin & Carrie Fangzhou Na, 2007. "The economic and statistical value of forecast combinations under regime switching: an application to predictable U.S. returns," Working Papers 2006-059, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  113. Davis, E. Philip & Madsen, Jakob B., 2008. "Productivity and equity market fundamentals: 80 years of evidence for 11 OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1261-1283, December.