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Citations for "Do We Reject Too Often? Small Sample Properties of Tests of Rational Expectations Models"

by N. Gregory Mankiw & Matthew D. Shapiro

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  1. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick, 2000. "Expectations Hypotheses Tests," NBER Working Papers 7609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Nelson C. Mark & Donggyu Sul, 2004. "The Use of Predictive Regressions at Alternative Horizons in Finance and Economics," Finance 0409032, EconWPA.
  3. Yakov Amihud & Clifford Hurvich, 2004. "Predictive Regressions: A Reduced-Bias Estimation Method," Econometrics 0412008, EconWPA.
  4. Sweeney, R. J., 2000. "Does the Fed beat the foreign-exchange market?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 665-694, May.
  5. Liu, Wei & Maynard, Alex, 2005. "Testing forward rate unbiasedness allowing for persistent regressors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 613-628, December.
  6. Nelson Mark & Donggyu Sul, 1998. "Norminal Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals: Evidence from a Small Post-Bretton Woods Panel," Working Papers 98-19, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
  7. Robert F. Stambaugh, 1999. "Predictive Regressions," NBER Technical Working Papers 0240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Amihud, Yakov & Hurvich, Clifford M. & Wang, Yi, 2010. "Predictive regression with order-p autoregressive predictors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 513-525, June.
  9. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1991. "Does Correcting for Heteroskedasticity Help?," NBER Technical Working Papers 0088, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Erik Hjalmarsson, 2006. "Predictive regressions with panel data," International Finance Discussion Papers 869, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Lewellen, Jonathan, 2003. "Predicting Returns With Financial Ratios," Working papers 4374-02, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  12. Campbell, John & Mankiw, Gregory, 1987. "Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?," Scholarly Articles 3122545, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  13. Pincheira, Pablo M. & West, Kenneth D., 2016. "A comparison of some out-of-sample tests of predictability in iterated multi-step-ahead forecasts," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 304-319.
  14. Christopher J. Neely & Lucio Sarno, 2002. "How well do monetary fundamentals forecast exchange rates?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 51-74.
  15. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514.
  16. Robert E. Hall & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1993. "Nominal Income Targeting," NBER Working Papers 4439, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Neely, Christopher J. & Weller, Paul, 2000. "Predictability in International Asset Returns: A Reexamination," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(04), pages 601-620, December.
  18. Michael D. Bauer & James D. Hamilton, 2015. "Robust Bond Risk Premia," CESifo Working Paper Series 5541, CESifo Group Munich.
  19. Dimitri Vayanos & Robin Greenwood, 2008. "Bond Supply and Excess Bond Returns," FMG Discussion Papers dp607, Financial Markets Group.
  20. Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2006. "Using out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors to test the martingale difference hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 155-186.
  21. Chiquoine, Benjamin & Hjalmarsson, Erik, 2009. "Jackknifing stock return predictions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 793-803, December.
  22. Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Using Out-of-Sample Mean Squared Prediction Errors to Test the Martingale Difference," NBER Technical Working Papers 0305, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & David A. Marshall, 1996. "On Biases in Tests of the Expecations Hypothesis of the Term Structure Of Interest Rates," NBER Technical Working Papers 0191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Pincheira, Pablo, 2017. "A Power Booster Factor for Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability," MPRA Paper 77027, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  25. Hirshleifer, David & Hou, Kewei & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2009. "Accruals, cash flows, and aggregate stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(3), pages 389-406, March.
  26. Smith, David C., 1999. "Finite sample properties of tests of the Epstein-Zin asset pricing model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 113-148, November.
  27. Sjoo, Boo & Sweeney, Richard J., 2001. "The foreign-exchange costs of central bank intervention: evidence from Sweden," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 219-247, April.
  28. Taamouti, Abderrahim & Dufour, Jean-Marie, 2008. "Exact optimal and adaptive inference in regression models under heteroskedasticity and non-normality of unknown forms," UC3M Working papers. Economics we086027, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
  29. Boum-Jong Choe, 1990. "Rational expectations and commodity price forecasts," Policy Research Working Paper Series 435, The World Bank.
  30. Elliott, Graham, 2011. "A control function approach for testing the usefulness of trending variables in forecast models and linear regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 79-91, September.
  31. Richard Harris, 2004. "The rational expectations hypothesis and the cross-section of bond yields," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 105-112.
  32. Kohei Aono & Tokuo Iwaisako, 2010. "On the Predictability of Japanese Stock Returns Using Dividend Yield," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 17(2), pages 141-149, June.
  33. G. Lamé & M. Lequien & P.-A. Pionnier, 2013. "Interpretation and limits of sustainability tests in public finance," Documents de Travail de la DESE - Working Papers of the DESE g2013-05, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, DESE.
  34. Maynard, Alex & Shimotsu, Katsumi, 2009. "Covariance-Based Orthogonality Tests For Regressors With Unknown Persistence," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(01), pages 63-116, February.
  35. Neely, Christopher J., 2014. "How Persistent Are Unconventional Monetary Policy Effects?," Working Papers 2014-4, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 13 Jul 2015.
  36. John Y. Campbell & Motohiro Yogo, 2002. "Efficient Tests of Stock Return Predictability," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1972, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  37. Ghattassi, Imen, 2008. "On the predictive power of the surplus consumption ratio," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 21-31, March.
  38. John H. Cochrane, 2008. "The Dog That Did Not Bark: A Defense of Return Predictability," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1533-1575, July.
  39. Valkanov, Rossen, 1999. "Equity Premium and Dividend Yield regressions: A lot of noise, little information, confusing results," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt955135m1, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
  40. Erik Hjalmarsson, 2006. "New methods for inference in long-run predictive regressions," International Finance Discussion Papers 853, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  41. Khurshid M. Kiani, 2016. "On Modelling and Forecasting Predictable Components in European Stock Markets," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 48(3), pages 487-502, October.
  42. Pástor, Luboš & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2007. "Predictive Systems: Living with Imperfect Predictors," CEPR Discussion Papers 6076, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  43. F. DePenya & L. Gil-Alana, 2006. "Testing of nonstationary cycles in financial time series data," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 47-65, August.
  44. Erik Hjalmarsson, 2008. "Predicting global stock returns," International Finance Discussion Papers 933, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  45. GIOT, Pierre & PETITJEAN, Mikael, 2006. "International stock return predictability: statistical evidence and economic significance," CORE Discussion Papers 2006088, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  46. Lorenzo Camponovo & Olivier Scaillet & Fabio Trojani, 2016. "Predictability Hidden by Anomalous Observations," Papers 1612.05072, arXiv.org.
  47. Eiji Kurozumi & Kohei Aono, 2011. "Estimation and Inference in Predictive Regressions," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd11-192, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  48. Dean Croushore & Simon van Norden, 2016. "Fiscal Forecasts at the FOMC: Evidence from the Greenbooks," CIRANO Working Papers 2016s-17, CIRANO.
  49. Hjalmarsson, Erik, 2005. "On the Predictability of Global Stock Returns," Working Papers in Economics 161, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
  50. Bryan Campbell & Eric Ghysels, 1997. "An Empirical Analysis of the Canadian Budget Process," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(3), pages 553-576, August.
  51. Jessica A. Wachter & Missaka Warusawitharana, 2006. "Predictable returns and asset allocation: Should a skeptical investor time the market?," 2006 Meeting Papers 22, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  52. John Y. Campbell, 1993. "Why Long Horizons: A Study of Power Against Persistent Alternatives," NBER Technical Working Papers 0142, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  53. Kothari, S. P. & Shanken, Jay, 1997. "Book-to-market, dividend yield, and expected market returns: A time-series analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 169-203, May.
  54. Seema Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2015. "The Financial Econometrics of Price Discovery and Predictability," Monash Economics Working Papers 06-15, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  55. Jiang, Xiaoquan & Lee, Bong-Soo, 2007. "Stock returns, dividend yield, and book-to-market ratio," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 455-475, February.
  56. Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Matei Demetrescu, 2016. "Residual-augmented IVX predictive regression," Working Papers w201605, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  57. Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Antonio Rubia, 2011. "A Class of Robust Tests in Augmented Predictive Regressions," Working Papers w201126, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  58. Hirshleifer, David & Hou, Kewei & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2007. "Accruals and Aggregate Stock Market Returns," MPRA Paper 5197, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  59. Christopher J. Neely, 2004. "Implied volatility from options on gold futures: do statistical forecasts add value or simply paint the lilly?," Working Papers 2003-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  60. Adam Goliński & João Madeira & Dooruj Rambaccussing, 2015. "Fractional Integration of the Price-Dividend Ratio in a Present-Value Model of Stock Prices," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 284, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
  61. Golinski, Adam & Madeira, Joao & Rambaccussing, Dooruj, 2014. "Fractional Integration of the Price-Dividend Ratio in a Present-Value Model," MPRA Paper 58554, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  62. Malcolm P. Baker & Ryan Taliaferro & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2004. "Pseudo Market Timing and Predictive Regressions," NBER Working Papers 10823, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  63. Sermin Gungor & Richard Luger, 2017. "Small-Sample Tests for Stock Return Predictability with Possibly Non-Stationary Regressors and GARCH-Type Effects," Staff Working Papers 17-10, Bank of Canada.
  64. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E. & Rangvid, Jesper, 2005. "Macro variables and international stock return predictability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 137-166.
  65. Hjalmarsson, Erik, 2008. "The Stambaugh bias in panel predictive regressions," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 47-58, March.
  66. Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor, "undated". "Real Interest Rates, Liquidity Constraints and Financial Deregulation: Private Consumption Behaviour in the UK," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 97-12, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
  67. Cai, Zongwu & Wang, Yunfei, 2014. "Testing predictive regression models with nonstationary regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P1), pages 4-14.
  68. Boum-Jong Choe, 1990. "Commodity price forecasts and futures prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 436, The World Bank.
  69. Rytchkov, Oleg, 2010. "Expected returns on value, growth, and HML," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 552-565, September.
  70. Alex Maynard, 2006. "The forward premium anomaly: statistical artefact or economic puzzle? New evidence from robust tests," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1244-1281, November.
  71. Aaron Smallwood; Alex Maynard; Mark Wohar, 2005. "The Long and the Short of It: Long Memory Regressors and Predictive Regressions," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 384, Society for Computational Economics.
  72. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Taamouti, Abderrahim, 2010. "Exact optimal inference in regression models under heteroskedasticity and non-normality of unknown form," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 2532-2553, November.
  73. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2006. "In-sample vs. out-of-sample tests of stock return predictability in the context of data mining," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 231-247, March.
  74. Jonathan N. Millar, 2005. "Gestation lags and the relationship between investment and Q in regressions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-28, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  75. Mark E. Wohar & David E. Rapach, 2005. "Return Predictability and the Implied Intertemporal Hedging Demands for Stocks and Bonds: International Evidence," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 329, Society for Computational Economics.
  76. Li, Hong, 2007. "Small-sample inference in rational expectations models with persistent data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 203-210, May.
  77. Boyer, Brian & Zheng, Lu, 2009. "Investor flows and stock market returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 87-100, January.
  78. Biqing Cai & Jiti Gao, 2013. "Hermite Series Estimation in Nonlinear Cointegrating Models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 17/13, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  79. Lewellen, Jonathan, 2004. "Predicting returns with financial ratios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 209-235, November.
  80. Buraschi, Andrea & Menini, Davide, 2002. "Liquidity risk and specialness," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 243-284, May.
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