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Citations for "Do We Reject Too Often? Small Sample Properties of Tests of Rational Expectations Models"

by N. Gregory Mankiw & Matthew D. Shapiro

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  1. Nelson C. Mark & Donggyu Sul, 2004. "The Use of Predictive Regressions at Alternative Horizons in Finance and Economics," NBER Technical Working Papers 0298, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Biqing Cai & Jiti Gao, 2013. "Hermite Series Estimation in Nonlinear Cointegrating Models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 17/13, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  3. John Y. Campbell & Motohiro Yogo, 2002. "Efficient Tests of Stock Return Predictability," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1972, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  4. Jessica A. Wachter & Missaka Warusawitharana, 2007. "Predictable Returns and Asset Allocation: Should a Skeptical Investor Time the Market?," NBER Working Papers 13165, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Erik Hjalmarsson, 2007. "The Stambaugh bias in panel predictive regressions," International Finance Discussion Papers 914, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller, 1999. "Predictability in international asset returns: a reexamination," Working Papers 1997-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  7. Jiang, Xiaoquan & Lee, Bong-Soo, 2007. "Stock returns, dividend yield, and book-to-market ratio," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 455-475, February.
  8. Hirshleifer, David & Hou, Kewei & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2009. "Accruals, cash flows, and aggregate stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(3), pages 389-406, March.
  9. Pincheira, Pablo M. & West, Kenneth D., 2016. "A comparison of some out-of-sample tests of predictability in iterated multi-step-ahead forecasts," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 304-319.
  10. Malcolm P. Baker & Ryan Taliaferro & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2004. "Pseudo Market Timing and Predictive Regressions," NBER Working Papers 10823, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Katsumi Shimotsu & Alex Maynard, 2004. "Covariance-based orthogonality tests for regressors with unknown persistence," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 536, Econometric Society.
  12. Aaron Smallwood; Alex Maynard; Mark Wohar, 2005. "The Long and the Short of It: Long Memory Regressors and Predictive Regressions," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 384, Society for Computational Economics.
  13. Javier De Peña & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2003. "Testing of Nonstationary Cycles in Financial Time Series Data," Faculty Working Papers 15/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  14. Dean Croushore & Simon van Norden, 2016. "Fiscal Forecasts at the FOMC: Evidence from the Greenbooks," CIRANO Working Papers 2016s-17, CIRANO.
  15. Sjoo, Boo & Sweeney, Richard J., 2001. "The foreign-exchange costs of central bank intervention: evidence from Sweden," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 219-247, April.
  16. Bryan Campbell & Eric Ghysels, 1997. "An Empirical Analysis of the Canadian Budget Process," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(3), pages 553-76, August.
  17. Hjalmarsson, Erik, 2010. "Predicting Global Stock Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(01), pages 49-80, February.
  18. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & David Marshall, 1996. "On biases in tests of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Working Paper Series, Issues in Financial Regulation WP-96-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  19. Robin Greenwood & Dimitri Vayanos, 2008. "Bond supply and excess bond returns," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24425, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  20. Christopher J. Neely & Lucio Sarno, 2002. "How well do monetary fundamentals forecast exchange rates?," Working Papers 2002-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  21. Shiller, Robert & Campbell, John, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Scholarly Articles 3221490, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  22. Erik Hjalmarsson, 2006. "New methods for inference in long-run predictive regressions," International Finance Discussion Papers 853, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  23. Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Using Out-of-Sample Mean Squared Prediction Errors to Test the Martingale Difference," NBER Technical Working Papers 0305, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Elliott, Graham, 2011. "A control function approach for testing the usefulness of trending variables in forecast models and linear regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 79-91, September.
  25. GIOT, Pierre & PETITJEAN, Mikael, 2006. "International stock return predictability: statistical evidence and economic significance," CORE Discussion Papers 2006088, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  26. Cai, Zongwu & Wang, Yunfei, 2014. "Testing predictive regression models with nonstationary regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P1), pages 4-14.
  27. Li, Hong, 2007. "Small-sample inference in rational expectations models with persistent data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 203-210, May.
  28. Geert Bekaert, 2001. "Expectations Hypotheses Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1357-1394, 08.
  29. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2006. "In-sample vs. out-of-sample tests of stock return predictability in the context of data mining," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 231-247, March.
  30. Mark E. Wohar & David E. Rapach, 2005. "Return Predictability and the Implied Intertemporal Hedging Demands for Stocks and Bonds: International Evidence," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 329, Society for Computational Economics.
  31. Michael D. Bauer & James D. Hamilton, 2015. "Robust Bond Risk Premia," CESifo Working Paper Series 5541, CESifo Group Munich.
  32. Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2004. "Using out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors to test the Martingale difference hypothesis," Research Working Paper RWP 04-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  33. Neely, Christopher J., 2014. "How Persistent Are Unconventional Monetary Policy Effects?," Working Papers 2014-4, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 13 Jul 2015.
  34. Rytchkov, Oleg, 2010. "Expected returns on value, growth, and HML," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 552-565, September.
  35. G. Lamé & M. Lequien & P.-A. Pionnier, 2013. "Interpretation and limits of sustainability tests in public finance," Documents de Travail de la DESE - Working Papers of the DESE g2013-05, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, DESE.
  36. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1990. "Does correcting for heteroscedasticity help?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 351-356, December.
  37. Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor, . "Real Interest Rates, Liquidity Constraints and Financial Deregulation: Private Consumption Behaviour in the UK," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 97-12, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
  38. Chiquoine, Benjamin & Hjalmarsson, Erik, 2009. "Jackknifing stock return predictions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 793-803, December.
  39. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E. & Rangvid, Jesper, 2005. "Macro variables and international stock return predictability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 137-166.
  40. Buraschi, Andrea & Menini, Davide, 2002. "Liquidity risk and specialness," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 243-284, May.
  41. Narayan, Seema & Smyth, Russell, 2015. "The financial econometrics of price discovery and predictability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 380-393.
  42. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1987. "Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 102(4), pages 857-880.
  43. John H. Cochrane, 2006. "The Dog That Did Not Bark: A Defense of Return Predictability," NBER Working Papers 12026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  44. Robert F. Stambaugh, 1999. "Predictive Regressions," NBER Technical Working Papers 0240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  45. Alex Maynard, 2006. "The forward premium anomaly: statistical artefact or economic puzzle? New evidence from robust tests," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1244-1281, November.
  46. Yakov Amihud & Clifford Hurvich, 2004. "Predictive Regressions: A Reduced-Bias Estimation Method," Econometrics 0412008, EconWPA.
  47. Taamouti, Abderrahim & Dufour, Jean-Marie, 2008. "Exact optimal and adaptive inference in regression models under heteroskedasticity and non-normality of unknown forms," UC3M Working papers. Economics we086027, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
  48. Ghattassi, Imen, 2008. "On the predictive power of the surplus consumption ratio," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 21-31, March.
  49. Amihud, Yakov & Hurvich, Clifford M. & Wang, Yi, 2010. "Predictive regression with order-p autoregressive predictors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 513-525, June.
  50. Mark, Nelson C. & Sul, Donggyu, 2001. "Nominal exchange rates and monetary fundamentals: Evidence from a small post-Bretton woods panel," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 29-52, February.
  51. Richard Harris, 2004. "The rational expectations hypothesis and the cross-section of bond yields," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 105-112.
  52. Sweeney, R. J., 2000. "Does the Fed beat the foreign-exchange market?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 665-694, May.
  53. Lubos Pastor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 2007. "Predictive Systems: Living with Imperfect Predictors," NBER Working Papers 12814, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  54. John Y. Campbell, 1993. "Why Long Horizons: A Study of Power Against Persistent Alternatives," NBER Technical Working Papers 0142, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  55. Christopher J. Neely, 2004. "Implied volatility from options on gold futures: do statistical forecasts add value or simply paint the lilly?," Working Papers 2003-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  56. Khurshid M. Kiani, 2016. "On Modelling and Forecasting Predictable Components in European Stock Markets," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 48(3), pages 487-502, October.
  57. Robert E. Hall & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1994. "Nominal Income Targeting," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 71-94 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  58. Kothari, S. P. & Shanken, Jay, 1997. "Book-to-market, dividend yield, and expected market returns: A time-series analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 169-203, May.
  59. Kohei Aono & Tokuo Iwaisako, 2010. "On the Predictability of Japanese Stock Returns Using Dividend Yield," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 17(2), pages 141-149, June.
  60. Lewellen, Jonathan, 2003. "Predicting Returns With Financial Ratios," Working papers 4374-02, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  61. Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Matei Demetrescu, 2016. "Residual-augmented IVX predictive regression," Working Papers w201605, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  62. Golinski, Adam & Madeira, Joao & Rambaccussing, Dooruj, 2014. "Fractional Integration of the Price-Dividend Ratio in a Present-Value Model," MPRA Paper 58554, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  63. Lewellen, Jonathan, 2004. "Predicting returns with financial ratios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 209-235, November.
  64. Boum-Jong Choe, 1990. "Rational expectations and commodity price forecasts," Policy Research Working Paper Series 435, The World Bank.
  65. Smith, David C., 1999. "Finite sample properties of tests of the Epstein-Zin asset pricing model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 113-148, November.
  66. Erik Hjalmarsson, 2006. "Predictive regressions with panel data," International Finance Discussion Papers 869, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  67. Jonathan N. Millar, 2005. "Gestation lags and the relationship between investment and Q in regressions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-28, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  68. Hjalmarsson, Erik, 2005. "On the Predictability of Global Stock Returns," Working Papers in Economics 161, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
  69. Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Antonio Rubia, 2011. "A Class of Robust Tests in Augmented Predictive Regressions," Working Papers w201126, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  70. Hirshleifer, David & Hou, Kewei & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2007. "Accruals and Aggregate Stock Market Returns," MPRA Paper 5197, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  71. Valkanov, Rossen, 1999. "Equity Premium and Dividend Yield regressions: A lot of noise, little information, confusing results," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt955135m1, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
  72. Adam Goliński & João Madeira & Dooruj Rambaccussing, 2015. "Fractional Integration of the Price-Dividend Ratio in a Present-Value Model of Stock Prices," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 284, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
  73. Boum-Jong Choe, 1990. "Commodity price forecasts and futures prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 436, The World Bank.
  74. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Taamouti, Abderrahim, 2010. "Exact optimal inference in regression models under heteroskedasticity and non-normality of unknown form," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 2532-2553, November.
  75. Eiji Kurozumi & Kohei Aono, 2011. "Estimation and Inference in Predictive Regressions," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd11-192, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  76. Liu, Wei & Maynard, Alex, 2005. "Testing forward rate unbiasedness allowing for persistent regressors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 613-628, December.
  77. Boyer, Brian & Zheng, Lu, 2009. "Investor flows and stock market returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 87-100, January.
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