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Asymmetric stock market volatility and the cyclical behavior of expected returns

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Cited by:

  1. Corradi, Valentina & Distaso, Walter & Mele, Antonio, 2008. "Macroeconomic determinants of stock market returns, volatility and volatility risk-premia," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24436, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  2. Beyer, Deborah B. & Fan, Zaifeng S., 2023. "The calming effects of conflict: The impact of partisan conflict on market volatility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
  3. Faria, Gonçalo & Verona, Fabio, 2018. "Forecasting stock market returns by summing the frequency-decomposed parts," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 228-242.
  4. Mele, Antonio & Obayashi, Yoshiki & Yang, Shihao, 2019. "The Term Structure of Government Debt Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 13874, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Dunbar, Kwamie, 2021. "Pricing the hedging factor in the cross-section of stock returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
  6. Charlotte Christiansen & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2012. "A comprehensive look at financial volatility prediction by economic variables," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(6), pages 956-977, September.
  7. Baris Kocaarslan & Ugur Soytas, 2021. "The Asymmetric Impact of Funding Liquidity Risk on the Volatility of Stock Portfolios during the COVID-19 Crisis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-12, February.
  8. Lyu, Zhichong & Ma, Feng & Zhang, Jixiang, 2023. "Oil futures volatility prediction: Bagging or combination?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 457-467.
  9. Lu Wang & Feng Ma & Guoshan Liu, 2020. "Forecasting stock volatility in the presence of extreme shocks: Short‐term and long‐term effects," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 797-810, August.
  10. Kurz-Kim, Jeong-Ryeol, 2016. "Black Monday, globalization and trading behavior of stock investors," Discussion Papers 18/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  11. Till Strohsal, 2013. "Testing the Preferred-Habitat Theory: The Role ofTime-Varying Risk Aversion," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2013-043, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  12. Jaksa Cvitanic & Elyès Jouini & Semyon Malamud & Clotilde Napp, 2011. "Financial Markets Equilibrium with Heterogeneous Agents," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 16(1), pages 285-321.
  13. Daniele Massacci, 2017. "Tail Risk Dynamics in Stock Returns: Links to the Macroeconomy and Global Markets Connectedness," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(9), pages 3072-3089, September.
  14. Andrea Bucci, 2020. "Realized Volatility Forecasting with Neural Networks," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 18(3), pages 502-531.
  15. Danielsson, Jon & Song Shin, Hyun & Zigrand, Jean-Pierre, 2011. "Balance sheet capacity and endogenous risk," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 43141, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  16. Nieto, Belén & Rubio, Gonzalo, 2011. "The volatility of consumption-based stochastic discount factors and economic cycles," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 2197-2216, September.
  17. Hammerschmid, Regina & Lohre, Harald, 2018. "Regime shifts and stock return predictability," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 138-160.
  18. Corradi, Valentina & Distaso, Walter & Mele, Antonio, 2013. "Macroeconomic determinants of stock volatility and volatility premiums," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 203-220.
  19. Anne-Charlotte Paret & Miss Anke Weber, 2019. "German Bond Yields and Debt Supply: Is There a “Bund Premium”?," IMF Working Papers 2019/235, International Monetary Fund.
  20. Henkel, Sam James & Martin, J. Spencer & Nardari, Federico, 2011. "Time-varying short-horizon predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 560-580, March.
  21. Su, EnDer & Wen Wong, Kai, 2019. "Testing the alternative two-state options pricing models: An empirical analysis on TXO," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 101-116.
  22. Un, Kuok Sin & Ausloos, Marcel, 2022. "Equity premium prediction: Taking into account the role of long, even asymmetric, swings in stock market behavior," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 608(P1).
  23. Matteo Modena, 2008. "The Term Structure and the Expectations Hypothesis: a Threshold Model," Working Papers 2008_36, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  24. Bucci, Andrea & Palomba, Giulio & Rossi, Eduardo, 2023. "The role of uncertainty in forecasting volatility comovements across stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
  25. Xavier Gabaix, 2007. "Linearity-Generating Processes: A Modelling Tool Yielding Closed Forms for Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 13430, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Olivier, Jacques & Tay, Anthony, 2008. "Time-Varying Incentives in the Mutual Fund Industry," CEPR Discussion Papers 6893, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  27. Wang, Lu & Ma, Feng & Liu, Jing & Yang, Lin, 2020. "Forecasting stock price volatility: New evidence from the GARCH-MIDAS model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 684-694.
  28. Zhen Cao & Jiancheng Shen & Xinbei Wei & Qunzi Zhang, 2023. "Anger in predicting the index futures returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(4), pages 437-454, April.
  29. Andrea Bucci, 2020. "Cholesky–ANN models for predicting multivariate realized volatility," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 865-876, September.
  30. Demetris Koursaros & Nektarios Michail & Niki Papadopoulou & Christos Savva, 2018. "To Create or to Redistribute? That is the Question," Working Papers 2018-5, Central Bank of Cyprus.
  31. Dicle, Mehmet F. & Levendis, John, 2020. "Historic risk and implied volatility," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
  32. Chabakauri, Georgy, 2010. "Asset pricing with heterogeneous investors and portfolio constraints," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 43142, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  33. Wang, Yunqi & Zhou, Ti, 2023. "Out-of-sample equity premium prediction: The role of option-implied constraints," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 199-226.
  34. Chun, Dohyun & Cho, Hoon & Ryu, Doojin, 2020. "Economic indicators and stock market volatility in an emerging economy," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(2).
  35. Ender Demir & Renatas Kizys & Wael Rouatbi & Adam Zaremba, 2022. "Sail Away to a Safe Harbor? COVID-19 Vaccinations and the Volatility of Travel and Leisure Companies," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-21, April.
  36. Terence Tai-Leung Chong & Shiyu Lin, 2017. "Predictive models for disaggregate stock market volatility," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 31(3), pages 261-288, August.
  37. Paye, Bradley S., 2012. "‘Déjà vol’: Predictive regressions for aggregate stock market volatility using macroeconomic variables," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 527-546.
  38. Andrea Bucci & Giulio Palomba & Eduardo Rossi, 2019. "Does macroeconomics help in predicting stock markets volatility comovements? A nonlinear approach," Working Papers 440, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
  39. Guo, Yangli & Ma, Feng & Li, Haibo & Lai, Xiaodong, 2022. "Oil price volatility predictability based on global economic conditions," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
  40. Hugonnier, Julien & Prieto, Rodolfo, 2015. "Asset pricing with arbitrage activity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 411-428.
  41. Goodness C. Aye & Frederick W. Deale & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "Does Debt Ceiling and Government Shutdown Help in Forecasting the US Equity Risk Premium?," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 63(3), pages 273-291, June.
  42. Hervé Roche & Juan Sotes-Paladino, 2022. "Sentiment, Mispricing and Excess Volatility in Presence of Institutional Investors," Working Papers 205, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
  43. Hubert Dichtl, 2020. "Investing in the S&P 500 index: Can anything beat the buy‐and‐hold strategy?," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(2), pages 352-378, April.
  44. Yu, Deshui & Huang, Difang, 2023. "Cross-sectional uncertainty and expected stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 321-340.
  45. Bejaoui, Azza & Karaa, Adel, 2016. "Revisiting the bull and bear markets notions in the Tunisian stock market: New evidence from multi-state duration-dependence Markov-switching models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 529-545.
  46. Xuan Tam & Eric Young & bo sun, 2014. "Regulatory Intensity, Crash Risk, and the Business Cycle," 2014 Meeting Papers 416, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  47. Götz, Thomas B. & Hecq, Alain & Smeekes, Stephan, 2016. "Testing for Granger causality in large mixed-frequency VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(2), pages 418-432.
  48. Branger, Nicole & Grüning, Patrick & Kraft, Holger & Meinerding, Christoph, 2013. "Asset pricing under uncertainty about shock propagation," SAFE Working Paper Series 34, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
  49. Paul Ehling & Christian Heyerdahl-Larsen, 2017. "Correlations," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(6), pages 1919-1937, June.
  50. Chauvet, Marcelle & Senyuz, Zeynep & Yoldas, Emre, 2015. "What does financial volatility tell us about macroeconomic fluctuations?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 340-360.
  51. Conrad, Christian & Loch, Karin & Rittler, Daniel, 2014. "On the macroeconomic determinants of long-term volatilities and correlations in U.S. stock and crude oil markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 26-40.
  52. Dichtl, Hubert & Drobetz, Wolfgang & Neuhierl, Andreas & Wendt, Viktoria-Sophie, 2021. "Data snooping in equity premium prediction," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 72-94.
  53. Douch, Mohamed & Bouaddi, Mohammed, 2010. "EQUITY Premium Puzzle in a Data-Rich Environment," MPRA Paper 29440, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  54. Baetje, Fabian & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2016. "Equity premium prediction: Are economic and technical indicators unstable?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1193-1207.
  55. Jonathan Dark & Xin Gao & Thijs van der Heijden & Federico Nardari, 2022. "Forecasting variance swap payoffs," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(12), pages 2135-2164, December.
  56. Huang, MeiChi & Wu, Chih-Chiang & Liu, Shih-Min & Wu, Chang-Che, 2016. "Facts or fates of investors' losses during crises? Evidence from REIT-stock volatility and tail dependence structures," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 54-71.
  57. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2017_001 is not listed on IDEAS
  58. Fabio Fornari & Antonio Mele, 2013. "Financial Volatility and Economic Activity," Journal of Financial Management, Markets and Institutions, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2, pages 155-198, December.
  59. Seung C. Ahn & Stephan Dieckmann & M. Fabricio Perez, 2018. "Is there a missing factor? A canonical correlation approach to factor models," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(4), pages 321-347, October.
  60. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2014. "Forecasting the Equity Risk Premium: The Role of Technical Indicators," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(7), pages 1772-1791, July.
  61. Nonejad, Nima, 2022. "Equity premium prediction using the price of crude oil: Uncovering the nonlinear predictive impact," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
  62. Conrad, Christian & Glas, Alexander, 2018. "‘Déjà vol’ revisited: Survey forecasts of macroeconomic variables predict volatility in the cross-section of industry portfolios," Working Papers 0655, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
  63. Omokolade Akinsomi & Goodness C. Aye & Vassilios Babalos & Fotini Economou & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "Real estate returns predictability revisited: novel evidence from the US REITs market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 1165-1190, November.
  64. Djahoué Mangblé Gérald, 2018. "Estimating and Forecasting West Africa Stock Market Volatility Using Asymmetric GARCH Models," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 8(6), pages 1-4.
  65. Ghani, Maria & Guo, Qiang & Ma, Feng & Li, Tao, 2022. "Forecasting Pakistan stock market volatility: Evidence from economic variables and the uncertainty index," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1180-1189.
  66. Mele, Antonio & Distaso, Walter & Vilkov, Grigory, 2019. "Correlation Risk, Strings and Asset Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 13873, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  67. Dendramis, Yiannis & Kapetanios, George & Tzavalis, Elias, 2015. "Shifts in volatility driven by large stock market shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 130-147.
  68. Bätje, Fabian & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2016. "Predicting the equity premium via its components," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145789, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  69. Dunbar, Kwamie & Jiang, Jing, 2020. "What do movements in financial traders’ net long positions reveal about aggregate stock returns?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
  70. Chung, Kee H. & Wang, Junbo & Wu, Chunchi, 2019. "Volatility and the cross-section of corporate bond returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(2), pages 397-417.
  71. Wang, Ziwei & Li, Youwei & He, Feng, 2020. "Asymmetric volatility spillovers between economic policy uncertainty and stock markets: Evidence from China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
  72. Jon Danielsson & Marcela Valenzuela & Ilknur Zer, 2018. "Learning from History: Volatility and Financial Crises," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(7), pages 2774-2805.
  73. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2016_029 is not listed on IDEAS
  74. Nonejad, Nima, 2023. "Conditional out-of-sample predictability of aggregate equity returns and aggregate equity return volatility using economic variables," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 91-122.
  75. Lindblad, Annika, 2017. "Sentiment indicators and macroeconomic data as drivers for low-frequency stock market volatility," MPRA Paper 80266, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  76. Angela Besana & Annamaria Esposito, 2017. "Memory, Marketing and Economic Performances in Usa Symphony Orchestras and Opera Houses," European Journal of Economics and Business Studies Articles, Revistia Research and Publishing, vol. 3, September.
  77. Mignanego, Fausto & Sbuelz, Alessandro, 2022. "Analytical cyclical price–dividend ratios," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
  78. Buncic, Daniel & Tischhauser, Martin, 2017. "Macroeconomic factors and equity premium predictability," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 621-644.
  79. Bevilacqua, Mattia & Tunaru, Radu, 2021. "The SKEW index: Extracting what has been left," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
  80. Talpsepp, Tõnn & Rieger, Marc Oliver, 2010. "Explaining asymmetric volatility around the world," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 938-956, December.
  81. Faria, Gonçalo & Verona, Fabio, 2018. "Forecasting stock market returns by summing the frequency-decomposed parts," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 228-242.
  82. Gonçalo Faria & Fabio Verona, 2016. "Forecasting the equity risk premium with frequency-decomposed predictors," Working Papers de Economia (Economics Working Papers) 06, Católica Porto Business School, Universidade Católica Portuguesa.
  83. Anthony Tay, 2008. "Time-Varying Incentives in the Mutual Fund Industry," Finance Working Papers 22484, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  84. Jean-Pierre Zigrand & Hyun Song Shin & Jon Danielsson, 2010. "Risk Appetite and Endogenous Risk," FMG Discussion Papers dp647, Financial Markets Group.
  85. Zhao, Albert Bo & Cheng, Tingting, 2022. "Stock return prediction: Stacking a variety of models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 288-317.
  86. Xi Dong & Yan Li & David E. Rapach & Guofu Zhou, 2022. "Anomalies and the Expected Market Return," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(1), pages 639-681, February.
  87. Rouatbi, Wael & Demir, Ender & Kizys, Renatas & Zaremba, Adam, 2021. "Immunizing markets against the pandemic: COVID-19 vaccinations and stock volatility around the world," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
  88. Guo, Yangli & He, Feng & Liang, Chao & Ma, Feng, 2022. "Oil price volatility predictability: New evidence from a scaled PCA approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
  89. Ruan, Qingsong & Wang, Zilin & Zhou, Yaping & Lv, Dayong, 2020. "A new investor sentiment indicator (ISI) based on artificial intelligence: A powerful return predictor in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 47-58.
  90. Bruno Deschamps & Tianlun Fei & Ying Jiang & Xiaoquan Liu, 2022. "Procyclical volatility in Chinese stock markets," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1117-1144, April.
  91. Gonçalo Faria & Fabio Verona, 2016. "Forecasting the equity risk premium with frequency-decomposed predictors," Working Papers de Economia (Economics Working Papers) 06, Católica Porto Business School, Universidade Católica Portuguesa.
  92. Cheng, Hang & Shi, Yongdong, 2020. "Forecasting China's stock market variance," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
  93. Jurdi, Doureige J., 2022. "Predicting the Australian equity risk premium," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
  94. Bevilacqua, Mattia & Tunaru, Radu, 2021. "The SKEW index: extracting what has been left," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 108198, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  95. Chen, Jian & Jiang, Fuwei & Li, Hongyi & Xu, Weidong, 2016. "Chinese stock market volatility and the role of U.S. economic variables," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 70-83.
  96. Parsley, David & Popper, Helen, 2020. "Return comovement," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
  97. Feng, Jiabao & Wang, Yudong & Yin, Libo, 2017. "Oil volatility risk and stock market volatility predictability: Evidence from G7 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 240-254.
  98. Dichtl, Hubert, 2020. "Forecasting excess returns of the gold market: Can we learn from stock market predictions?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 19(C).
  99. Pan, Zheyao & Chan, Kam Fong, 2018. "A new government bond volatility index predictor for the U.S. equity premium," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 200-215.
  100. Nima Nonejad, 2021. "Bayesian model averaging and the conditional volatility process: an application to predicting aggregate equity returns by conditioning on economic variables," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(8), pages 1387-1411, August.
  101. Georgy Chabakauri, 2012. "Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Investors and Portfolio Constraints," 2012 Meeting Papers 636, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  102. Liu, Li & Pan, Zhiyuan, 2020. "Forecasting stock market volatility: The role of technical variables," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 55-65.
  103. Jian Chen & Jiaquan Yao & Qunzi Zhang & Xiaoneng Zhu, 2023. "Global Disaster Risk Matters," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(1), pages 576-597, January.
  104. Nonejad, Nima, 2020. "A comprehensive empirical analysis of the predictive impact of the price of crude oil on aggregate equity return volatility," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
  105. Palandri, Alessandro, 2014. "Risk-free rate effects on conditional variances and conditional correlations of stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 95-111.
  106. Nonejad, Nima, 2022. "Understanding the conditional out-of-sample predictive impact of the price of crude oil on aggregate equity return volatility," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
  107. Jing Tian & Qing Zhou, 2018. "Improving equity premium forecasts by incorporating structural break uncertainty," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(S1), pages 619-656, November.
  108. Gao, Jun & Gao, Xiang & Gu, Chen, 2023. "Forecasting European stock volatility: The role of the UK," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
  109. Feng He & Libo Yin, 2021. "Shocks to the equity capital ratio of financial intermediaries and the predictability of stock return volatility," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 945-962, September.
  110. Rapach, David E. & Ringgenberg, Matthew C. & Zhou, Guofu, 2016. "Short interest and aggregate stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 46-65.
  111. Yin, Libo & Feng, Jiabao & Han, Liyan, 2021. "Systemic risk in international stock markets: Role of the oil market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 592-619.
  112. Wang, Yudong & Wei, Yu & Wu, Chongfeng & Yin, Libo, 2018. "Oil and the short-term predictability of stock return volatility," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 90-104.
  113. Haibin Xie & Shouyang Wang, 2018. "Timing the market: the economic value of price extremes," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 4(1), pages 1-24, December.
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