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Testing the preferred-habitat theory: The role of time-varying risk aversion

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  • Strohsal, Till

Abstract

This paper examines the preferred-habitat theory under time-varying risk aversion. The predicted positive relation between the term spread and relative supply of longer-term debt is stronger when risk aversion is high. To capture this effect, a time-varying coefficient model is introduced and applied to German bond data. The results support the theoretical predictions and indicate substantial time variation: under high risk aversion, yield spreads react about three times more strongly than when risk aversion is low. The accumulated response of term spreads to a one standard deviation change in debt supply ranges between 5 and 33 basis points.

Suggested Citation

  • Strohsal, Till, 2013. "Testing the preferred-habitat theory: The role of time-varying risk aversion," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2013-043, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2013-043
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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