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Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Returns, Volatility and Volatility Risk-Premia

Author

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  • Valentina Corradi
  • Antonio Mele

  • Walter Distaso

Abstract

This paper introduces a no-arbitrage framework to assess how macroeconomic factors help explain the risk-premium agents require to bear the risk of .uctuations in stock market volatility. We develop a model in which return volatility and volatility risk-premia are stochastic and derive no-arbitrage conditions linking volatility to macroeconomic factors. We estimate the model using data related to variance swaps, which are contracts with payo¤s indexed to nonparametric measures of realized volatility. We .nd that volatility risk-premia are strongly countercyclical, even more so than standard measures of return volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Valentina Corradi & Antonio Mele & Walter Distaso, 2008. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Returns, Volatility and Volatility Risk-Premia," FMG Discussion Papers dp616, Financial Markets Group.
    • Handle: RePEc:fmg:fmgdps:dp616
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    Cited by:

    1. Arisoy, Yakup Eser, 2010. "Volatility risk and the value premium: Evidence from the French stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 975-983, May.
    2. Christian Conrad & Karin Loch, 2015. "Anticipating Long‐Term Stock Market Volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(7), pages 1090-1114, November.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General

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