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An extrapolative model of house price dynamics

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Cited by:

  1. Martin, Carolin & Schmitt, Noemi & Westerhoff, Frank, 2021. "Heterogeneous expectations, housing bubbles and tax policy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 555-573.
  2. Theresa Kuchler & Monika Piazzesi & Johannes Stroebel, 2022. "Housing Market Expectations," CESifo Working Paper Series 9665, CESifo.
  3. Knut Are Aastveit & André K. Anundsen, 2022. "Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy in Regional Housing Markets," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 499-529, October.
  4. Zhenyu Gao & Michael Sockin & Wei Xiong, 2019. "Economic Consequences of Housing Speculation," NBER Working Papers 26457, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Julien Pénasse & Luc Renneboog, 2022. "Speculative Trading and Bubbles: Evidence from the Art Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(7), pages 4939-4963, July.
  6. Martin, Carolin & Schmitt, Noemi & Westerhoff, Frank, 2022. "Housing Markets, Expectation Formation And Interest Rates," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(2), pages 491-532, March.
  7. Stefano Giglio & Matteo Maggiori & Johannes Stroebel & Stephen Utkus, 2021. "Five Facts about Beliefs and Portfolios," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(5), pages 1481-1522, May.
  8. Pancrazi, Roberto & Pietrunti, Mario, 2019. "Natural expectations and home equity extraction," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
  9. Alessia De Stefani, 2021. "House price history, biased expectations, and credit cycles: The role of housing investors," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1238-1266, December.
  10. DeFusco, Anthony A. & Nathanson, Charles G. & Zwick, Eric, 2022. "Speculative dynamics of prices and volume," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 205-229.
  11. Francesco D’Acunto & Daniel Hoang & Maritta Paloviita & Michael Weber, 2023. "IQ, Expectations, and Choice," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(5), pages 2292-2325.
  12. Liao, Jingchi & Peng, Cheng & Zhu, Ning, 2019. "Price and volume dynamics in bubbles," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 102057, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  13. Lajos Horv'ath & Zhenya Liu & Shanglin Lu, 2020. "Sequential Monitoring of Changes in Housing Prices," Papers 2002.04101, arXiv.org.
  14. Griffin, John M. & Kruger, Samuel & Maturana, Gonzalo, 2021. "What drove the 2003–2006 house price boom and subsequent collapse? Disentangling competing explanations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 1007-1035.
  15. John Fender, 2020. "Beyond the efficient markets hypothesis: Towards a new paradigm," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(3), pages 333-351, July.
  16. Rose Neng Lai & Robert Van Order, 2019. "Shadow Banking and the Property Market in China," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 22(3), pages 359-397.
  17. Bernardo Alves Furtado, 2022. "PolicySpace2: Modeling Markets and Endogenous Public Policies," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 25(1), pages 1-8.
  18. Greg Howard & Carl Liebersohn, 2019. "What Explains U.S. House Prices? Regional Income Divergence," 2019 Meeting Papers 1054, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  19. Jengei Hong & Doojin Ryu, 2023. "Expectations and the housing market: A model of house price dynamics," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(4), pages 1242-1266, October.
  20. Begley, Jaclene & Chan, Sewin, 2018. "The effect of housing wealth shocks on work and retirement decisions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 180-195.
  21. Choi, Chi-Young & Hansz, J. Andrew, 2021. "From banking integration to housing market integration - Evidence from the comovement of U.S. Metropolitan House Prices," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
  22. Yi Wu & Nicole Lux, 2018. "U.K. House Prices: Bubbles or Market Efficiency? Evidence from Regional Analysis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-16, September.
  23. William N Goetzmann & Christophe Spaenjers & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2021. "Real and Private-Value Assets [Gendered prices]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(8), pages 3497-3526.
  24. Kindermann, Fabian & Le Blanc, Julia & Piazzesi, Monika & Schneider, Martin, 2021. "Learning about Housing Cost: Survey Evidence from the German House Price Boom," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242386, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  25. Fève, Patrick & Moura, Alban, 2023. "Frictionless house-price momentum," TSE Working Papers 23-1488, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
  26. Paolo Gelain & Kevin J. Lansing & Gisle J. Natvik, 2018. "Explaining the Boom–Bust Cycle in the U.S. Housing Market: A Reverse‐Engineering Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(8), pages 1751-1783, December.
  27. Bolt, Wilko & Demertzis, Maria & Diks, Cees & Hommes, Cars & Leij, Marco van der, 2019. "Identifying booms and busts in house prices under heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 234-259.
  28. Federica Ciocchetta & Elisa Guglielminetti & Alessandro Mistretta, 2023. "What drives house prices in Europe?," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 764, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  29. Christian A. L. Hilber, 2019. "Immobilienpreise und Immobilienzyklen und die Rolle von Angebotsbeschränkungen [The impact of local supply constraints on house prices and price dynamics]," Zeitschrift für Immobilienökonomie (German Journal of Real Estate Research), Springer;Gesellschaft für Immobilienwirtschaftliche Forschung e. V., vol. 5(1), pages 37-65, November.
  30. Bekiros, Stelios & Nilavongse, Rachatar & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2020. "Expectation-driven house prices and debt defaults: The effectiveness of monetary and macroprudential policies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
  31. Hjalmarsson, Erik & Österholm, Pär, 2020. "Heterogeneity in households’ expectations of housing prices – evidence from micro data," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
  32. Giacoletti, Marco & Parsons, Christopher A., 2022. "Peak-Bust rental spreads," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 504-526.
  33. Ma, Xutao & Zhang, Zhen, 2022. "Expectations, credit conditions, and housing boom-bust: Evidence from SVAR with sign and zero restrictions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
  34. Chen, Qiuyu & Feng, Ling & Li, Zhiyuan & Lin, Ching-Yi, 2021. "Housing prices and trade surpluses in China: An inter-temporal approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
  35. Cong Chen & Changsheng Hu & Hongxing Yao, 2022. "Noise Trader Risk and Wealth Effect: A Theoretical Framework," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(20), pages 1-18, October.
  36. Petre Caraiani & Adrian Cantemir Călin, 2020. "Housing markets, monetary policy, and the international co‐movement of housing bubbles," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 365-375, May.
  37. Mathieu Aubry & Roman Kräussl & Gustavo Manso & Christophe Spaenjers, 2023. "Biased Auctioneers," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(2), pages 795-833, April.
  38. Bordalo, Pedro & Gennaioli, Nicola & Kwon, Spencer Yongwook & Shleifer, Andrei, 2021. "Diagnostic bubbles," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 1060-1077.
  39. Klaus Adam & Oliver Pfäuti & Timo Reinelt, 2020. "Falling Natural Rates, Rising Housing Volatility and the Optimal Inflation Target," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2020_235, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
  40. Zhenyu Gao & Michael Sockin & Wei Xiong, 2020. "Learning about the Neighborhood," NBER Working Papers 26907, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  41. Deng, Kuang Kuang & Lang, Henan & Zhou, Xiaoxia, 2022. "Extrapolation and house price overreaction: Evidence from local jurisdiction mergers," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
  42. Sarah Kiesl-Reiter & Melanie Lührmann & Jonathan Shaw & Joachim Winter, 2024. "The Formation of Subjective House Price Expectations," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 491, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
  43. Itzhak Ben-David & Pascal Towbin & Sebastian Weber, 2019. "Inferring Expectations from Observables: Evidence from the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 25702, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  44. Yuxi Yao, 2023. "Accounting for the decline in homeownership among the young," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(1), pages 79-102, January.
  45. Chen, Jie & Chen, Yu & Hill, Robert J. & Hu, Pei, 2022. "The user cost of housing and the price-rent ratio in Shanghai," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
  46. Liao, Jingchi & Peng, Cameron & Zhu, Ning, 2022. "Extrapolative bubbles and trading volume," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 110514, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  47. Pauline Gandré, 2020. "Learning, house prices and macro-financial linkages," EconomiX Working Papers 2020-10, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
  48. Shengguo Li & Jiaqi Liu & Jichang Dong & Xuerong Li, 2021. "20 Years of Research on Real Estate Bubbles, Risk and Exuberance: A Bibliometric Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-24, August.
  49. Dieci, Roberto & Schmitt, Noemi & Westerhoff, Frank H., 2022. "Boom-bust cycles and asset market participation waves: Momentum, value, risk and herding," BERG Working Paper Series 177, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  50. Malmendier, Ulrike M. & Botsch, Matthew J., 2020. "The Long Shadows of the Great Inflation: Evidence from Residential Mortgages," CEPR Discussion Papers 14934, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  51. Noemi Schmitt & Frank Westerhoff, 2022. "Speculative housing markets and rent control: insights from nonlinear economic dynamics," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 17(1), pages 141-163, January.
  52. Hardik A. Marfatia & Christophe André & Rangan Gupta, 2022. "Predicting Housing Market Sentiment: The Role of Financial, Macroeconomic and Real Estate Uncertainties," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 189-209, May.
  53. Alban Moura & Olivier Pierrard, 2022. "How well do DSGE models with real estate and collateral constraints fit the data?," BCL working papers 168, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
  54. Büchler, Simon & Ehrlich, Maximilian v. & Schöni, Olivier, 2021. "The amplifying effect of capitalization rates on housing supply," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
  55. Alex Chinco, 2023. "The Ex Ante Likelihood of Bubbles," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(2), pages 1222-1244, February.
  56. Barberis, Nicholas & Greenwood, Robin & Jin, Lawrence & Shleifer, Andrei, 2018. "Extrapolation and bubbles," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(2), pages 203-227.
  57. Huihui WU & Chunpeng YANG, 2022. "Investor Sentiment, Extrapolation and Asset Pricing," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 182-205, December.
  58. Jørgensen, Peter Lihn, 2023. "The global savings glut and the housing boom," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
  59. Paul E. Carrillo & William M. Doerner & William D. Larson, 2023. "House Price Markups and Mortgage Defaults," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(4), pages 747-782, June.
  60. Yang, Chunpeng & Wu, Huihui, 2019. "Chasing investor sentiment in stock market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
  61. Caines, Colin & Winkler, Fabian, 2021. "Asset price beliefs and optimal monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 53-67.
  62. Canepa, Alessandra & Zanetti Chini, Emilio & Alqaralleh, Huthaifa, 2019. "Modelling Housing Market Cycles in Global Cities," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 201901, University of Turin.
  63. Benjamin Kwakye & Chan Tze Haw, 2020. "Interplay of the Macroeconomy and Real Estate: Systematic Review of Literature," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 262-271.
  64. Liao, Jingchi & Peng, Cameron & Zhu, Ning, 2021. "Extrapolative bubbles and trading volume," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118887, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  65. Daniel L. Tortorice, 2019. "Long-Run Expectations, Learning and the US Housing Market," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 497-531, October.
  66. Howard, Greg & Liebersohn, Jack, 2021. "Why is the rent so darn high? The role of growing demand to live in housing-supply-inelastic cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
  67. Jie Wang & Biyu Peng & Xiaohua Xia & Zhu Ma, 2021. "Are Housing Prices Sustainable in 35 Large and Medium-Sized Chinese Cities? A Study Based on the Cheap Talk Game and Dynamic GMM," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-18, November.
  68. Colin C. Caines & Fabian Winkler, 2018. "Asset Price Learning and Optimal Monetary Policy," International Finance Discussion Papers 1236, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  69. Manuel Adelino & Antoinette Schoar & Felipe Severino, 2018. "Perception of House Price Risk and Homeownership," NBER Working Papers 25090, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  70. Francesco D’Acunto & Ulrike Malmendier & Juan Ospina & Michael Weber, 2019. "Exposure to Daily Price Changes and Inflation Expectations," NBER Working Papers 26237, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  71. Solé-Ollé, Albert & Viladecans-Marsal, Elisabet, 2019. "Housing booms and local spending," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
  72. Adrian Carro, 2022. "Could Spain be less different? Exploring the effects of macroprudential policy on the house price cycle," Working Papers 2230, Banco de España.
  73. Aubry, Mathieu & Kräussl, Roman & Manso, Gustavo & Spaenjers, Christophe, 2019. "Machine learning, human experts, and the valuation of real assets," CFS Working Paper Series 635, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  74. Rose Neng Lai & Robert Van Order, 2019. "Shadow Banking and the Property Market in China," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 22(3), pages 361-399.
  75. Ma, Chao, 2020. "Momentum and Reversion to Fundamentals: Are They Captured by Subjective Expectations of House Prices?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
  76. Nicholas B. Irwin & Mitchell R. Livy, 2022. "Price and Liquidity Dynamics for Single and Multi-Family Homes during Housing Market Shocks," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 22-47, July.
  77. Stefano Cassella & Huseyin Gulen, 2018. "Extrapolation Bias and the Predictability of Stock Returns by Price-Scaled Variables," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(11), pages 4345-4397.
  78. Zhou, Tingyu & Clapp, John M & Lu-Andrews, Ran, 2021. "Is the behavior of sellers with expected gains and losses relevant to cycles in house prices?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
  79. Zaremba, Adam & Szyszka, Adam & Long, Huaigang & Zawadka, Dariusz, 2020. "Business sentiment and the cross-section of global equity returns," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
  80. Dieci, Roberto & Gardini, Laura & Westerhoff, Frank, 2022. "On the destabilizing nature of capital gains taxes," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
  81. Sun, Xiaojin & Tsang, Kwok Ping, 2019. "Large price movements in housing markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 1-23.
  82. Faisal Mahmood & Wasim Al-Shattarat & Ruba Hamed & Basiem Al-Shattarat & Kameleddine Benameur & Ahmed Hassanein & Yasean Tahat, 2023. "The Influence of Urbanization and Environmental Factors on the Financial Performance of Retail and Automotive Industries in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-28, November.
  83. Lasse Bork & Stig V. Møller & Thomas Q. Pedersen, 2020. "A New Index of Housing Sentiment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(4), pages 1563-1583, April.
  84. Makridis, Christos A., 2022. "The social transmission of economic sentiment on consumption," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
  85. Lars A. Lochstoer & Tyler Muir, 2022. "Volatility Expectations and Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 1055-1096, April.
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