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Time-varying rare disaster risk and stock returns

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Cited by:

  1. Wei-Fong Pan, 2019. "Geopolitical Risk and R&D investment," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2019-11, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
  2. Ruenzi, Stefan & Ungeheuer, Michael & Weigert, Florian, 2020. "Joint Extreme events in equity returns and liquidity and their cross-sectional pricing implications," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
  3. Rossi, Barbara & Odendahl, Florens & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2020. "Comparing Forecast Performance with State Dependence," CEPR Discussion Papers 15217, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. William N. Goetzmann & Dasol Kim, 2018. "Negative bubbles: What happens after a crash," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 24(2), pages 171-191, March.
  5. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier, 2014. "Large shocks in the volatility of the Dow Jones Industrial Average index: 1928–2013," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 188-199.
  6. Bevilacqua, Mattia & Morelli, David & Uzan, Paola Sultana Renée, 2021. "Striking the implied volatility of US drone companies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
  7. NguyenHuu, Tam, 2022. "The impacts of rare disasters on asset returns and risk premiums in advanced economies (1870–2015)," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
  8. Sang Byung Seo & Jessica A. Wachter, 2019. "Option Prices in a Model with Stochastic Disaster Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(8), pages 3449-3469, August.
  9. Wen, Jun & Zhao, Xin-Xin & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2021. "The impact of extreme events on energy price risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
  10. Yong Wang & Changyang Liu & Gaoyi Wang, 2020. "Geopolitical Risk Revealed in International Investment and World Trade," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(2), pages 133-154, June.
  11. Rangan Gupta & Tahir Suleman & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "The role of time‐varying rare disaster risks in predicting bond returns and volatility," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(3), pages 327-340, July.
  12. Roberto Marfè & Julien Pénasse, 2020. "Measuring Macroeconomic Tail Risk," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 621, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
  13. Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan & Suleman, Tahir & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Time-varying rare disaster risks, oil returns and volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 239-248.
  14. Jerry Tsai & Jessica A. Wachter, 2015. "Disaster Risk and its Implications for Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 20926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Bonato, Matteo & Cepni, Oguzhan & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2023. "Climate risks and state-level stock market realized volatility," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
  16. Boying Li & Chun-Ping Chang & Yin Chu & Bo Sui, 2020. "Oil prices and geopolitical risks: What implications are offered via multi-domain investigations?," Energy & Environment, , vol. 31(3), pages 492-516, May.
  17. Turner, John D., 2014. "Financial history and financial economics," QUCEH Working Paper Series 14-03, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's University Centre for Economic History.
  18. Isoré, Marlène & Szczerbowicz, Urszula, 2017. "Disaster risk and preference shifts in a New Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 97-125.
  19. Bannigidadmath, Deepa & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2016. "Stock return predictability and determinants of predictability and profits," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 153-173.
  20. Baur, Dirk G. & Smales, Lee A., 2020. "Hedging geopolitical risk with precious metals," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
  21. Hasler, Michael & Marfè, Roberto, 2016. "Disaster recovery and the term structure of dividend strips," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 116-134.
  22. Henry Hyun-Do Kim & Kwangwoo Park, 2021. "Impact of Environmental Disaster Movies on Corporate Environmental and Financial Performance," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-35, January.
  23. Huang, Tao & Wu, Fei & Yu, Jing & Zhang, Bohui, 2015. "International political risk and government bond pricing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 393-405.
  24. Campbell R. Harvey & Yan Liu & Heqing Zhu, 2014. ". . . and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns," NBER Working Papers 20592, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Chabi-Yo, Fousseni & Ruenzi, Stefan & Weigert, Florian, 2018. "Crash Sensitivity and the Cross Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 1059-1100, June.
  26. Cao, Zhen & Han, Liyan & Wei, Xinbei & Zhang, Qunzi, 2022. "Fear in commodity return prediction," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
  27. Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
  28. Alexander Opitz, 2018. "“Comrades, Let's March!”.† The Revolution of 1905 and its impact on financial markets," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 22(1), pages 28-52.
  29. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach, 2022. "Terrorism and international stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
  30. Belkhir, Mohamed & Grira, Jocelyn & Hassan, M. Kabir & Soumaré, Issouf, 2019. "Islamic banks and political risk: International evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 39-55.
  31. In Huh & Ju Hyun Pyun, 2018. "Does Nuclear Uncertainty Threaten Financial Markets? The Attention Paid to North Korean Nuclear Threats and Its Impact on South Korea's Financial Markets," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 32(1), pages 55-82, March.
  32. Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Jacobus Nel & Christian Pierdzioch, 2020. "Effect of Rare Disaster Risks on Crude Oil: Evidence from El Nino from Over 140 Years of Data," Working Papers 2020104, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  33. Peng, Daoju & Colak, Gonul & Shen, Jianfu, 2023. "Lean against the wind: The effect of policy uncertainty on a firm's corporate social responsibility strategy," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
  34. Rangan Gupta & Tahir Suleman & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "Exchange rate returns and volatility: the role of time-varying rare disaster risks," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2), pages 190-203, January.
  35. Matteo Foglia & Vasilios Plakandaras & Rangan Gupta & Elie Bouri, 2023. "Multi-Layer Spillovers between Volatility and Skewness in International Stock Markets Over a Century of Data: The Role of Disaster Risks," Working Papers 202337, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  36. Charfeddine, Lanouar & Al Refai, Hisham, 2019. "Political tensions, stock market dependence and volatility spillover: Evidence from the recent intra-GCC crises," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
  37. Tomasz Piotr Wisniewski & Brendan John Lambe & Alexandra Dias, 2020. "The Influence of General Strikes against Government on Stock Market Behavior," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 67(1), pages 72-99, February.
  38. Stan Olijslagers & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 2019. "Discounting the Future: on Climate Change, Ambiguity Aversion and Epstein-Zin Preferences," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 19-030/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
  39. Su, Hao & Ying, Chengwei & Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2022. "Disaster risk matters in the bond market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
  40. Izzeldin, Marwan & Muradoğlu, Yaz Gülnur & Pappas, Vasileios & Petropoulou, Athina & Sivaprasad, Sheeja, 2023. "The impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on global financial markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
  41. Hua, Renhai & Liu, Qingfu & Tse, Yiuman & Yu, Qin, 2023. "The impact of natural disaster risk on the return of agricultural futures," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
  42. Salisu, Afees A. & Gupta, Rangan & Nel, Jacobus & Bouri, Elie, 2022. "The (Asymmetric) effect of El Niño and La Niña on gold and silver prices in a GVAR model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
  43. Tavares, José & Leitão, Diogo & Pereira, Jaime & Pereira Dos Santos, Joao, 2019. "The War Next Door and the Reds are Coming: The Spanish Civil War and the Portuguese Stock Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 13990, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  44. Honghui Chen & David M. Harrison & Mahsa Khoshnoud, 2020. "Investors’ Limited Attention: Evidence from REITs," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 408-442, October.
  45. Murad A Mithani, 2017. "Liability of foreignness, natural disasters, and corporate philanthropy," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 48(8), pages 941-963, October.
  46. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2023. "Misery on Main Street, victory on Wall Street: Economic discomfort and the cross-section of global stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
  47. Al-Ississ Mohamad, 2015. "The Cross-Border Impact of Political Violence," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 239-272, April.
  48. Dehua Shen & Wei Zhang, 2021. "Stay-at-Home Stocks Versus Go-Outside Stocks: The Impacts of COVID-19 on the Chinese Stock Market," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 28(2), pages 305-318, June.
  49. Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr, 2016. "Is there a link between politics and stock returns? A literature survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 15-23.
  50. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Gupta, Rangan & Kollias, Christos & Papadamou, Stephanos, 2017. "Geopolitical risks and the oil-stock nexus over 1899–2016," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 165-173.
  51. Frijns, Bart & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2017. "Excess stock return comovements and the role of investor sentiment," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 74-87.
  52. Jung, Seungho & Lee, Jongmin & Lee, Seohyun, 2021. "The impact of geopolitical risk on stock returns: Evidence from inter-Korea geopolitics," MPRA Paper 108006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  53. Silva, Thiago Christiano & Wilhelm, Paulo Victor Berri & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2023. "Trade matters except to war neighbors: The international stock market reaction to 2022 Russia’s invasion of Ukraine," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
  54. Omar, Ayman M.A. & Lambe, Brendan J & Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr, 2021. "Perceptions of the threat to national security and the stock market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 504-522.
  55. Salisu, Afees A. & Cuñado, Juncal & Gupta, Rangan, 2022. "Geopolitical risks and historical exchange rate volatility of the BRICS," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 179-190.
  56. Roberto Marfè & Julien Penasse, 2016. "The Time-Varying Risk of Macroeconomic Disasters," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 463, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
  57. Mobeen Ur Rehman & Wafa Ghardallou & Nasir Ahmad & Xuan Vinh Vo & Sang Hoon Kang, 2024. "Does effect of risk and uncertainties on US sectoral returns differ across different investment horizons and market conditions," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 26(1), pages 1-49, February.
  58. Christoph Kaserer, 2022. "Estimating the market risk premium for valuations: arithmetic or geometric mean or something in between?," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 92(8), pages 1373-1415, October.
  59. Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Gozgor, Giray & Goodell, John W., 2023. "Impact of Russia-Ukraine war attention on cryptocurrency: Evidence from quantile dependence analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
  60. Braun, Alexander & Braun, Julia & Weigert, Florian, 2023. "Extreme weather risk and the cost of equity," CFR Working Papers 23-08, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
  61. Ayman Omar, 2015. "West Texas Intermediate and Brent Spread during Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Supply Disruptions," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(3), pages 693-703.
  62. Weigert, Florian, 2013. "Crash Aversion and the Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns Worldwide," Working Papers on Finance 1325, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance, revised Nov 2015.
  63. Söhnke M. Bartram & Harald Lohre & Peter F. Pope & Ananthalakshmi Ranganathan, 2021. "Navigating the factor zoo around the world: an institutional investor perspective," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 91(5), pages 655-703, July.
  64. William N. Goetzmann & Dasol Kim & Robert J. Shiller, 2016. "Crash Beliefs From Investor Surveys," NBER Working Papers 22143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  65. Finer, David Andrew, 2022. "No Shock Waves through Wall Street? Market Responses to the Risk of Nuclear War," Working Papers 318, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, George J. Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State.
  66. Henk Berkman & Ben Jacobsen & John B. Lee, 2017. "Rare disaster risk and the expected equity risk premium," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57(2), pages 351-372, June.
  67. Hitesh Doshi & Hyung Joo Kim & Sang Byung Seo, 2023. "Options on Interbank Rates and Implied Disaster Risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-054, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  68. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Nel, Jacobus, 2022. "Rare disaster risks and gold over 700 years: Evidence from nonparametric quantile regressions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
  69. He, Yinghua & Nielsson, Ulf & Wang, Yonglei, 2017. "Hurting without hitting: The economic cost of political tension," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 106-124.
  70. Omar, Ayman M.A. & Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr & Nolte, Sandra, 2017. "Diversifying away the risk of war and cross-border political crisis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 494-510.
  71. Cepni, Oguzhan & Demirer, Riza & Pham, Linh & Rognone, Lavinia, 2023. "Climate uncertainty and information transmissions across the conventional and ESG assets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
  72. George P. Gao & Xiaomeng Lu & Zhaogang Song, 2019. "Tail Risk Concerns Everywhere," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(7), pages 3111-3130, July.
  73. Sun, Yunpeng & Bao, Qun & Lu, Zhou, 2021. "Coronavirus (Covid-19) outbreak, investor sentiment, and medical portfolio: Evidence from China, Hong Kong, Korea, Japan, and U.S," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
  74. Lerby Ergun, 2019. "Extreme Downside Risk in Asset Returns," Staff Working Papers 19-46, Bank of Canada.
  75. Zhou, Mei-Jing & Huang, Jian-Bai & Chen, Jin-Yu, 2020. "The effects of geopolitical risks on the stock dynamics of China's rare metals: A TVP-VAR analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
  76. Nguyen, Quang & Kim, Huong Trang, 2023. "An exploration on policy uncertainty as a driver of R&D activity," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
  77. Marshall, Ben R. & Nguyen, Hung T. & Nguyen, Nhut H. & Visaltanachoti, Nuttawat, 2021. "Country governance and international equity returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
  78. Shao, Wei & Wang, Jian, 2020. "Does the “ice-breaking” of South and North Korea affect the South Korean financial market?," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
  79. Kamal, Md Rajib & Ahmed, Shaker & Hasan, Mostafa Monzur, 2023. "The impact of the Russia-Ukraine crisis on the stock market: Evidence from Australia," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
  80. Ecenur Ugurlu-Yildirim & Beyza Mina Ordu-Akkaya, 2022. "Does the impact of geopolitical risk reduce with the financial structure of an economy? A perspective from market vs. bank-based emerging economies," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 12(4), pages 681-703, December.
  81. Devpura, Neluka & Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2018. "Is stock return predictability time-varying?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 152-172.
  82. Francois Gourio, 2012. "Disaster Risk and Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2734-2766, October.
  83. Białkowski, Jędrzej & Ronn, Ehud I., 2019. "The global equity premium revisited: What human rights imply for assets' purchasing power," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 175-187.
  84. Dang, Vinh Q.T. & So, Erin P.K., 2018. "Having the wrong friends at the wrong time: Effects of political turmoil on politically-connected firms," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 79-94.
  85. Alam, Ahmed W. & Houston, Reza & Farjana, Ashupta, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and corporate investment: How do politically connected firms respond?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
  86. Di Wang & Robert J. Weiner & Quan Li & Srividya Jandhyala, 2021. "Leviathan as foreign investor: Geopolitics and sovereign wealth funds," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 52(7), pages 1238-1255, September.
  87. Robert J. Barro & José F. Ursúa, 2012. "Rare Macroeconomic Disasters," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 83-109, July.
  88. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chen, Mei-Ping, 2020. "Do natural disasters and geopolitical risks matter for cross-border country exchange-traded fund returns?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
  89. Ghaderi, Mohammad & Kilic, Mete & Seo, Sang Byung, 2022. "Learning, slowly unfolding disasters, and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 527-549.
  90. Kong, Dongmin & Lin, Zhiyang & Wang, Yanan & Xiang, Junyi, 2021. "Natural disasters and analysts' earnings forecasts," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
  91. Sakariyahu, Rilwan & Lawal, Rodiat & Oyekola, Olayinka & Dosumu, Oluwatoyin Esther & Adigun, Rasheed, 2023. "Natural disasters, investor sentiments and stock market reactions: Evidence from Turkey–Syria earthquakes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
  92. Bigerna, Simona & D'Errico, Maria Chiara & Polinori, Paolo & Simshauer, Paul, 2022. "Renewable energy and portfolio volatility spillover effects of GCC oil exporting countries," MPRA Paper 114164, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  93. Jędrzej Białkowski & Ehud I. Ronn, 2017. "The Global Equity Premium Revisited: What Human Rights Imply for Assets’ Purchasing Power," Working Papers in Economics 17/19, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
  94. Smith, Simon C. & Timmermann, Allan, 2022. "Have risk premia vanished?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 553-576.
  95. Feng, Xunan & Johansson, Anders C. & Wei, Dengxi, 2023. "Judging a book by its cover: Analysts and attention-driven price patterns in China's IPO market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
  96. Jian Chen & Jiaquan Yao & Qunzi Zhang & Xiaoneng Zhu, 2023. "Global Disaster Risk Matters," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(1), pages 576-597, January.
  97. Arshian Sharif & Eyup Dogan & Ameenullah Aman & Hafizah Hammad Ahmad Khan & Isma Zaighum, 2020. "Rare disaster and renewable energy in the USA: new insights from wavelet coherence and rolling-window analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(3), pages 2731-2755, September.
  98. Smales, L.A., 2021. "Geopolitical risk and volatility spillovers in oil and stock markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 358-366.
  99. Jędrzej Białkowski & Ehud I. Ronn, 2016. "Financial Markets in the Face of the Apocalypse," Working Papers in Economics 16/14, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
  100. Bruno Ćorić & Rangan Gupta, 2023. "Economic disasters and inequality: a note," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(5), pages 3527-3543, October.
  101. Ergun, Lerby M., 2016. "Disaster and fortune risk in asset returns," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 66194, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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