IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/pacfin/v79y2023ics0927538x23001026.html

The impact of the Russia-Ukraine crisis on the stock market: Evidence from Australia

Author

Listed:
  • Kamal, Md Rajib
  • Ahmed, Shaker
  • Hasan, Mostafa Monzur

Abstract

This paper investigates the effect of the Russia–Ukraine crisis on the Australian stock market. Using the event study methodology, we find significantly negative abnormal returns on the event date (i.e., the first trading day after Russia recognized the two Ukrainian states as autonomous regions) in the Australian stock market. However, this negative stock market reaction mostly disappeared in the post-event period. We also find that small and medium-sized firms were adversely affected during the pre-event and event periods. Interestingly, the magnitude and the direction of the abnormal returns vary across industries. We also find that high-growth, illiquid and export-oriented firms are more exposed to the Russia–Ukraine crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Kamal, Md Rajib & Ahmed, Shaker & Hasan, Mostafa Monzur, 2023. "The impact of the Russia-Ukraine crisis on the stock market: Evidence from Australia," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:79:y:2023:i:c:s0927538x23001026
    DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2023.102036
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927538X23001026
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.pacfin.2023.102036?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kolaric, Sascha & Schiereck, Dirk, 2016. "Are stock markets efficient in the face of fear? Evidence from the terrorist attacks in Paris and Brussels," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 306-310.
    2. Jinliang Li & Jeffery A. Born, 2006. "Presidential Election Uncertainty And Common Stock Returns In The United States," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 29(4), pages 609-622, December.
    3. Lee A. Smales, 2017. "“Brexit”: A Case Study in the Relationship Between Political and Financial Market Uncertainty," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 17(3), pages 451-459, September.
    4. Naidu, Dharmendra & Ranjeeni, Kumari, 2021. "Effect of coronavirus fear on the performance of Australian stock returns: Evidence from an event study," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    5. Boungou, Whelsy & Yatié, Alhonita, 2022. "The impact of the Ukraine–Russia war on world stock market returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    6. He, Yinghua & Nielsson, Ulf & Wang, Yonglei, 2017. "Hurting without hitting: The economic cost of political tension," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 106-124.
    7. Lehkonen, Heikki & Heimonen, Kari, 2015. "Democracy, political risks and stock market performance," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 77-99.
    8. Jacobs, Heiko, 2016. "Market maturity and mispricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 270-287.
    9. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    10. Maynes, Elizabeth & Rumsey, John, 1993. "Conducting event studies with thinly traded stocks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 145-157, February.
    11. Syed Riaz Mahmood Ali & Shaker Ahmed & Mohammad Nurul Hasan & Ralf Östermark, 2021. "Predictability of Extreme Returns in the Turkish Stock Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(2), pages 482-494, January.
    12. Anil Shivdasani & David Yermack, 1999. "CEO Involvement in the Selection of New Board Members: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1829-1853, October.
    13. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    14. Jianping Mei & Limin Guo, 2004. "Political Uncertainty, Financial Crisis and Market Volatility," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 10(4), pages 639-657, December.
    15. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Végh, 2003. "The Unholy Trinity of Financial Contagion," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 51-74, Fall.
    16. Gemmill, Gordon, 1992. "Political risk and market efficiency: Tests based in British stock and options markets in the 1987 election," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 211-231, February.
    17. Antoinette Schoar & Luo Zuo, 2016. "Does the Market Value CEO Styles?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 262-266, May.
    18. Dimic, Nebojsa & Orlov, Vitaly & Piljak, Vanja, 2015. "The political risk factor in emerging, frontier, and developed stock markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 239-245.
    19. Dimson, Elroy & Marsh, Paul, 1986. "Event study methodologies and the size effect : The case of UK press recommendations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 113-142, September.
    20. Borokhovich, Kenneth A. & Parrino, Robert & Trapani, Teresa, 1996. "Outside Directors and CEO Selection," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(3), pages 337-355, September.
    21. Fang, Yi & Shao, Zhiquan, 2022. "The Russia-Ukraine conflict and volatility risk of commodity markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    22. Augustin Landier & David Thesmar, 2020. "Earnings Expectations in the COVID Crisis," NBER Working Papers 27160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Boubaker, Sabri & Goodell, John W. & Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Kumari, Vineeta, 2022. "Heterogeneous impacts of wars on global equity markets: Evidence from the invasion of Ukraine," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    24. Buigut, Steven & Kapar, Burcu, 2020. "Effect of Qatar diplomatic and economic isolation on GCC stock markets: An event study approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    25. Kolaric, S. & Schiereck, D., 2016. "Are stock markets efficient in the face of fear? Evidence from the terrorist attacks in Paris and Brussels," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 80721, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    26. Afees A. Salisu & Lukman Lasisi & Jean Paul Tchankam, 2022. "Historical geopolitical risk and the behaviour of stock returns in advanced economies," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(9), pages 889-906, June.
    27. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    28. Corrado, Charles J. & Truong, Cameron, 2008. "Conducting event studies with Asia-Pacific security market data," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 493-521, November.
    29. Bash, Ahmad & Alsaifi, Khaled, 2019. "Fear from uncertainty: An event study of Khashoggi and stock market returns," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 54-58.
    30. Thomas Josev & Howard Chan & Robert Faff, 2004. "What’s in a Name? Evidence on Corporate Name Changes from the Australian Capital Market," Pacific Accounting Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 16(1), pages 57-76, March.
    31. Burcu Kapar & Steven Buigut, 2020. "Effect of Qatar diplomatic and economic isolation on Qatar stock market volatility: an event study approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(55), pages 6022-6030, November.
    32. Afik, Zvika & Haim, Roi & Lahav, Yaron, 2019. "Advance notice labor conflicts and firm value—An event study analysis on Israeli companies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    33. Srinivas Nippani & W. Medlin, 2002. "The 2000 Presidential Election and the stock market," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 26(2), pages 162-169, June.
    34. Boehmer, Ekkehart & Masumeci, Jim & Poulsen, Annette B., 1991. "Event-study methodology under conditions of event-induced variance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 253-272, December.
    35. Fama, Eugene F, et al, 1969. "The Adjustment of Stock Prices to New Information," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 10(1), pages 1-21, February.
    36. Hillier, David & Loncan, Tiago, 2019. "Political uncertainty and Stock returns: Evidence from the Brazilian Political Crisis," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 1-12.
    37. Berkman, Henk & Jacobsen, Ben & Lee, John B., 2011. "Time-varying rare disaster risk and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 313-332, August.
    38. Maria Boutchkova & Hitesh Doshi & Art Durnev & Alexander Molchanov, 2012. "Precarious Politics and Return Volatility," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(4), pages 1111-1154.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Gozgor, Giray & Goodell, John W., 2023. "Impact of Russia-Ukraine war attention on cryptocurrency: Evidence from quantile dependence analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    2. MD ASIF UL ALAM & Erik Devos & Zifeng Feng, 2023. "Firm reaction to geopolitical crises: Evidence from the Russia‐Ukraine conflict," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 46(S1), pages 163-182, December.
    3. Ali, Syed Riaz Mahmood & Anik, Kaysul Islam & Hasan, Mohammad Nurul & Kamal, Md Rajib, 2023. "Geopolitical threats, equity returns, and optimal hedging," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    4. Rafi, Md Khaled Hossain & Ali, Syed Riaz Mahmood, 2025. "Disaggregated geopolitical risks and global stock returns," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    5. Furdui Călin & Șfabu Dorina Teodora, 2023. "The European Banks Under the Shock of the Russian Invasion of 2022: An Event Study Approach," Studia Universitatis Babeș-Bolyai Oeconomica, Sciendo, vol. 68(1), pages 62-77, April.
    6. Ahmed, Shamima & Assaf, Rima & Rahman, Molla Ramizur & Tabassum, Fariha, 2023. "Is geopolitical risk interconnected? Evidence from Russian-Ukraine crisis," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    7. Shroff, Sumita & Agrawal, Nidhi & Paliwal, Udai Lal & Yadav, Miklesh Prasad, 2025. "How do selected asset classes react to sudden shocks? Evidence from Israel-Hamas conflict using Event Study approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    8. Long, Huaigang & Chiah, Mardy & Zaremba, Adam & Umar, Zaghum, 2024. "Changes in shares outstanding and country stock returns around the world," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    9. Long, Huaigang & Zaremba, Adam & Zhou, Wenyu & Bouri, Elie, 2022. "Macroeconomics matter: Leading economic indicators and the cross-section of global stock returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    10. Herold, Michael & Kanz, Andreas & Muck, Matthias, 2021. "Do opinion polls move stock prices? Evidence from the US presidential election in 2016," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 665-690.
    11. Tatiana Dănescu & Roxana-Maria Stejerean & Raluca Sandru, 2024. "Evidence of Financial Market Synergies. A Combined Statistical and Machine Learning Research Approach," Acta Marisiensis. Series Oeconomica, "George Emil Palade" University of Medicine, Pharmacy, Sciences and Technology of Târgu-Mureș, România - Faculty of Economics and Law, vol. 1, pages 31-46, December.
    12. Dionysia Dionysiou, 2015. "Choosing Among Alternative Long-Run Event-Study Techniques," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 158-198, February.
    13. Gok, Ibrahim Yasar & Demirdogen, Yavuz & Topuz, Sefa, 2020. "The impacts of terrorism on Turkish equity market: An investigation using intraday data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 540(C).
    14. Rahman, Md Lutfur & Amin, Abu & Al Mamun, Mohammed Abdullah, 2021. "The COVID-19 outbreak and stock market reactions: Evidence from Australia," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    15. Xu, Mingli & Yang, Wei & Huang, Zhixiong, 2021. "Do investor relations matter in the tourism industry? Evidence from public opinions in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 923-933.
    16. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, December.
    17. Ghalke, Avinash & Sensarma, Rudra & Chakraborty, Sandip & Kakani, Ram Kumar, 2023. "Stock markets and economic uncertainty: Roles of legislative sessions and coalition strength," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    18. Guo, Yawei & Li, Jianping & Li, Yehua & You, Wanhai, 2021. "The roles of political risk and crude oil in stock market based on quantile cointegration approach: A comparative study in China and US," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    19. Ye, Dezhu & Liu, Shasha & Kong, Dongmin, 2013. "Do efforts on energy saving enhance firm values? Evidence from China's stock market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 360-369.
    20. Kumari, Vineeta & Hassan, Majdi & Pandey, Dharen Kumar, 2024. "Are high-income and innovative nations resilient to the Russia-Ukraine war?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 1268-1287.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:79:y:2023:i:c:s0927538x23001026. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/pacfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.