IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jimfin/v59y2015icp77-99.html

Democracy, political risks and stock market performance

Author

Listed:
  • Lehkonen, Heikki
  • Heimonen, Kari

Abstract

This study examines the impacts of democracy and political risk on stock market. Using annualized panel data for 49 emerging markets for 2000–2012 we find evidence that democracy and political risk do have impact on stock market returns and the relationship between democracy and political risk is parabolic, i.e., there is a threshold level of democracy after which political risk begins to decline. Also our results suggest that decreases in political risk lead to higher returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Lehkonen, Heikki & Heimonen, Kari, 2015. "Democracy, political risks and stock market performance," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 77-99.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:59:y:2015:i:c:p:77-99
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2015.06.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560615001023
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2015.06.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Torsten Persson & Guido Tabellini, 2007. "The growth effect of democracy: Is it heterogenous and how can it be estimated?," Working Papers 322, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    2. Pantzalis, Christos & Stangeland, David A. & Turtle, Harry J., 2000. "Political elections and the resolution of uncertainty: The international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1575-1604, October.
    3. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    4. Lensink, Robert & Hermes, Niels & Murinde, Victor, 2000. "Capital flight and political risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 73-92, February.
    5. Hegre, Håvard, 2001. "Toward a Democratic Civil Peace? Democracy, Political Change, and Civil War, 1816–1992," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 95(1), pages 33-48, March.
    6. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    7. David Roodman, 2009. "How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 9(1), pages 86-136, March.
    8. Bilson, Christopher M. & Brailsford, Timothy J. & Hooper, Vincent C., 2002. "The explanatory power of political risk in emerging markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-27.
    9. Maurice J. G. Bun & Frank Windmeijer, 2010. "The weak instrument problem of the system GMM estimator in dynamic panel data models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 13(1), pages 95-126, February.
    10. Asiedu, Elizabeth & Lien, Donald, 2011. "Democracy, foreign direct investment and natural resources," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 99-111, May.
    11. Dani Rodrik & Romain Wacziarg, 2005. "Do Democratic Transitions Produce Bad Economic Outcomes?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 50-55, May.
    12. Stephen R Foerster & John J Schmitz, 1997. "The Transmission of U.S. Election Cycles to International Stock Returns," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 28(1), pages 1-27, March.
    13. Bialkowski, Jedrzej & Gottschalk, Katrin & Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr, 2008. "Stock market volatility around national elections," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1941-1953, September.
    14. Tavares, Jose & Wacziarg, Romain, 2001. "How democracy affects growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(8), pages 1341-1378, August.
    15. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lundblad, Christian, 2011. "Financial Openness and Productivity," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 1-19, January.
    16. David Roodman, 2009. "A Note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(1), pages 135-158, February.
    17. David Roodman, 2006. "How to Do xtabond2," North American Stata Users' Group Meetings 2006 8, Stata Users Group.
    18. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
    19. Bekaert, Geert, 1995. "Market Integration and Investment Barriers in Emerging Equity Markets," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 9(1), pages 75-107, January.
    20. David F. Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2005. "The Properties of Automatic "GETS" Modelling," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(502), pages 32-61, March.
    21. Marta Reynal-Querol, 2002. "Political systems, stability and civil wars," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(6), pages 465-483.
    22. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson & Pierre Yared, 2008. "Income and Democracy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 808-842, June.
    23. Michael Rock, 2009. "Corruption and Democracy," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(1), pages 55-75.
    24. Perotti, Enrico C. & van Oijen, Pieter, 2001. "Privatization, political risk and stock market development in emerging economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 43-69, February.
    25. Robert J. Barro, 1999. "Determinants of Democracy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(S6), pages 158-183, December.
    26. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E. & Rangvid, Jesper, 2005. "Macro variables and international stock return predictability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 137-166.
    27. William Hauk & Romain Wacziarg, 2009. "A Monte Carlo study of growth regressions," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 103-147, June.
    28. Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak, 2005. "Democracy, Volatility, and Economic Development," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(2), pages 348-361, May.
    29. Hayakawa, Kazuhiko, 2007. "Small sample bias properties of the system GMM estimator in dynamic panel data models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 32-38, April.
    30. Casper, Gretchen & Tufis, Claudiu, 2003. "Correlation Versus Interchangeability: The Limited Robustness of Empirical Findings on Democracy Using Highly Correlated Data Sets," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(02), pages 196-203, March.
    31. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    32. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    33. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Christian T. Lundblad & Stephan Siegel, 2011. "What Segments Equity Markets?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(12), pages 3841-3890.
    34. Mark J. Flannery & Aris A. Protopapadakis, 2002. "Macroeconomic Factors Do Influence Aggregate Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(3), pages 751-782.
    35. Windmeijer, Frank, 2005. "A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 25-51, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fabrice Murtin & Romain Wacziarg, 2014. "The democratic transition," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 141-181, June.
    2. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5m0od0o9jn9pqbdmos7fpt28hg is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Zheng, Xinye & Li, Fanghua & Song, Shunfeng & Yu, Yihua, 2013. "Central government's infrastructure investment across Chinese regions: A dynamic spatial panel data approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 264-276.
    4. Vusal Musayev, 2016. "Externalities in Military Spending and Growth: The Role of Natural Resources as a Channel through Conflict," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(3), pages 378-391, June.
    5. Andreas Assiotis & Kevin Sylwester, 2013. "Do the effects of corruption upon growth differ between democracies and autocracies?," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 06-2013, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
    6. Heid, Benedikt & Langer, Julian & Larch, Mario, 2012. "Income and democracy: Evidence from system GMM estimates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(2), pages 166-169.
    7. Cavallo, Alberto F. & Cavallo, Eduardo A., 2010. "Are crises good for long-term growth? The role of political institutions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 838-857, September.
    8. Musayev, Vusal, 2014. "Commodity Price Shocks, Conflict and Growth: The Role of Institutional Quality and Political Violence," MPRA Paper 59786, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Gründler, Klaus & Krieger, Tommy, 2016. "Democracy and growth: Evidence from a machine learning indicator," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 45(S), pages 85-107.
    10. Musayev, Vusal, 2013. "Military Spending and Growth: An Empirical Exploration of Contingent Relationships," MPRA Paper 59783, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Shrabani Saha & Kunal Sen, 2019. "The corruption-growth relationship: Do political institutions matter?," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2019-65, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    12. Lamar Crombach & Frank Bohn, 2024. "Uninformed voters with (im)precise expectations: Explaining political budget cycle puzzles," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(1), pages 275-311, March.
    13. Claire Giordano, 2023. "Revisiting the real exchange rate misalignment‐economic growth nexus via the across‐sector misallocation channel," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(4), pages 1329-1384, September.
    14. Jooste, Charl & Liu, Guangling (Dave) & Naraidoo, Ruthira, 2013. "Analysing the effects of fiscal policy shocks in the South African economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 215-224.
    15. Hayakawa, Kazuhiko, 2019. "Alternative over-identifying restriction test in the GMM estimation of panel data models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 10(C), pages 71-95.
    16. Majid M. Al-Sadoon & Sergi Jiménez-Martín & Jose M. Labeaga, 2019. "Simple methods for consistent estimation of dynamic panel data sample selection models," Economics Working Papers 1631, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    17. Sebastian Kripfganz & Claudia Schwarz, 2019. "Estimation of linear dynamic panel data models with time‐invariant regressors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(4), pages 526-546, June.
    18. Sobia Ehsan & Attiya Yasmin Javid, 2018. "Bank ownership structure, regulations and risk-taking: evidence from commercial banks in Pakistan," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 17(3), pages 185-209, November.
    19. David Kucera & Marco Principi, 2014. "Democracy and foreign direct investment at the industry level: evidence for US multinationals," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 150(3), pages 595-617, August.
    20. Che, Yi & Lu, Yi & Tao, Zhigang & Wang, Peng, 2013. "The impact of income on democracy revisited," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 159-169.
    21. Onur Özdemir, 2020. "The handicap for enhanced solidarity across advanced economies: The greater the economic openness higher the unequal distribution of income," Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 91(4), pages 585-632, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • F52 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - National Security; Economic Nationalism

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:59:y:2015:i:c:p:77-99. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.