IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/enejou/v45y2024i1_supplp133-164.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Net-Zero Policy vs Energy Security: The Impact on GCC Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Simona Bigerna
  • Maria Chiara D'Errico
  • Paolo Polinori
  • Paul Simshauser

Abstract

Gulf Cooperation Council countries have accumulated large oil portfolio revenues. However, the world economy is seeking to reduce carbon emissions, and in turn, its reliance on fossil fuel resources through investments in renewable energy resources. The aim of this research is to analyze oil portfolio risk from an exporters' perspective, highlighting how relevant determinants, such as the increasing penetration of renewables in the importer counterparties, and financial and policy uncertainty, increase the volatility of oil export portfolios. We construct oil portfolios for four Gulf Cooperation Council countries (Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates) from 2008 to 2018, and compute volatility spillovers à la Diebold and Yilrnaz. Then, the effects of policy and economic variables on volatility spillover indices are estimated using different panel linear regression models. We find rising renewable market shares significantly affects oil export portfolio risks and reduces adverse impacts on importing countries of oil market fluctuations.

Suggested Citation

  • Simona Bigerna & Maria Chiara D'Errico & Paolo Polinori & Paul Simshauser, 2024. "Net-Zero Policy vs Energy Security: The Impact on GCC Countries," The Energy Journal, , vol. 45(1_suppl), pages 133-164, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:45:y:2024:i:1_suppl:p:133-164
    DOI: 10.5547/01956574.45.SI1.sbig
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.5547/01956574.45.SI1.sbig
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.5547/01956574.45.SI1.sbig?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2013. "Is there a homogeneous causality pattern between oil prices and currencies of oil importers and exporters?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 665-678.
    2. Libing Fang & Baizhu Chen & Honghai Yu & Yichuo Qian, 2018. "The importance of global economic policy uncertainty in predicting gold futures market volatility: A GARCH‐MIDAS approach," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 413-422, March.
    3. Morana, Claudio, 2013. "Oil price dynamics, macro-finance interactions and the role of financial speculation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 206-226.
    4. Hites Ahir & Nicholas Bloom & Davide Furceri, 2022. "The world uncertainty index," CEP Discussion Papers dp1842, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    5. Su, Xianfang, 2020. "Dynamic behaviors and contributing factors of volatility spillovers across G7 stock markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    6. Wen, Danyan & Liu, Li & Ma, Chaoqun & Wang, Yudong, 2020. "Extreme risk spillovers between crude oil prices and the U.S. exchange rate: Evidence from oil-exporting and oil-importing countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    7. Liow, Kim Hiang & Huang, Yuting, 2018. "The dynamics of volatility connectedness in international real estate investment trusts," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 195-210.
    8. Gouveia, João Pedro & Dias, Luís & Martins, Inês & Seixas, Júlia, 2014. "Effects of renewables penetration on the security of Portuguese electricity supply," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 438-447.
    9. van Eyden, Reneé & Difeto, Mamothoana & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2019. "Oil price volatility and economic growth: Evidence from advanced economies using more than a century’s data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233, pages 612-621.
    10. Xiuwen Chen & Xiaolei Sun & Jun Wang, 2019. "Dynamic Spillover Effect Between Oil Prices and Economic Policy Uncertainty in BRIC Countries: A Wavelet-Based Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(12), pages 2703-2717, September.
    11. Guesmi, Khaled & Fattoum, Salma, 2014. "Return and volatility transmission between oil prices and oil-exporting and oil-importing countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 305-310.
    12. Trabelsi Mnif, Afef, 2017. "Political uncertainty and behavior of Tunisian stock market cycles: Structural unobserved components time series models," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 206-214.
    13. Paparoditis, Efstathios, 1996. "Bootstrapping Autoregressive and Moving Average Parameter Estimates of Infinite Order Vector Autoregressive Processes," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 277-296, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Amalia, Shendy & Effendi, Kharisya Ayu & Riantani, Suskim, 2024. ""Carbon Spectacular" - Exploring the Path to Enhance the Precision of Fiscal and Tax Support for Innovative Technologies in Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction," OSF Preprints 4rydm, Center for Open Science.
    2. repec:osf:osfxxx:4rydm_v1 is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bigerna, Simona & D'Errico, Maria Chiara & Polinori, Paolo & Simshauer, Paul, 2022. "Renewable energy and portfolio volatility spillover effects of GCC oil exporting countries," MPRA Paper 114164, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Sun-Yong Choi & Changsoo Hong, 2020. "Relationship between uncertainty in the oil and stock markets before and after the shale gas revolution: Evidence from the OVX, VIX, and VKOSPI volatility indices," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(5), pages 1-26, May.
    3. Afshan, Sahar & Yaqoob, Tanzeela & Zaied, Younes Ben & Mishra, Shekhar & Mishra, Sibanjan, 2024. "Oil shocks and currency behavior: A dual approach to digital and traditional currencies," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    4. Sheng, Xin & Kim, Won Joong & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2023. "The impacts of oil price volatility on financial stress: Is the COVID-19 period different?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 520-532.
    5. Yen-Hsien Lee & Ting-Huei Liao & Ya-Ling Huang & Tzu-Ling Huang, 2015. "Dynamic Spillovers between Oil and Stock Markets: New Approaches at Spillover Index," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 6(2), pages 178-189, April.
    6. Guo, Yawei & Li, Jianping & Li, Yehua & You, Wanhai, 2021. "The roles of political risk and crude oil in stock market based on quantile cointegration approach: A comparative study in China and US," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    7. Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2017. "The impact of oil-market shocks on stock returns in major oil-exporting countries: A Markov-switching approach," MPRA Paper 81638, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. James Ming Chen & Mobeen Ur Rehman, 2021. "A Pattern New in Every Moment: The Temporal Clustering of Markets for Crude Oil, Refined Fuels, and Other Commodities," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-58, September.
    9. Liew, Ping-Xin & Lim, Kian-Ping & Goh, Kim-Leng, 2022. "The dynamics and determinants of liquidity connectedness across financial asset markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 341-358.
    10. Alola, Andrew A. & Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Oliyide, Johnson A., 2022. "Outlook of oil prices and volatility from 1970 to 2040 through global energy mix-security from production to reserves: A nonparametric causality-in-quantiles approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    11. Xiao, Jihong & Wang, Yudong, 2022. "Macroeconomic uncertainty, speculation, and energy futures returns: Evidence from a quantile regression," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    12. Xu Gong & Mingchao Wang & Liuguo Shao, 2022. "The impact of macro economy on the oil price volatility from the perspective of mixing frequency," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 4487-4514, October.
    13. Kumar, Pawan & Singh, Vipul Kumar, 2022. "Does crude oil fire the emerging markets currencies contagion spillover? A systemic perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    14. He, Feng & Ma, Feng & Wang, Ziwei & Yang, Bohan, 2021. "Asymmetric volatility spillover between oil-importing and oil-exporting countries' economic policy uncertainty and China's energy sector," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    15. Afees A. Salisu & Rangan Gupta & Elie Bouri & Qiang Ji, 2022. "Mixed‐frequency forecasting of crude oil volatility based on the information content of global economic conditions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(1), pages 134-157, January.
    16. Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2018. "The impact of oil-market shocks on stock returns in major oil-exporting countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 264-280.
    17. Mohamed Albaity & Hasan Mustafa, 2018. "International and Macroeconomic Determinants of Oil Price: Evidence from Gulf Cooperation Council Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(1), pages 69-81.
    18. Debojyoti Das & Anupam Dutta & Rabin K. Jana & Indranil Ghosh, 2023. "The asymmetric impact of oil price uncertainty on emerging market financial stress: A quantile regression approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 4299-4323, October.
    19. Wan, Jer-Yuh & Kao, Chung-Wei, 2015. "Interactions between oil and financial markets — Do conditions of financial stress matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 160-175.
    20. Dou, Yue & Li, Yiying & Dong, Kangyin & Ren, Xiaohang, 2022. "Dynamic linkages between economic policy uncertainty and the carbon futures market: Does Covid-19 pandemic matter?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:45:y:2024:i:1_suppl:p:133-164. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.