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Modeling Dynamic Correlations And Spillover Effects Of Country Risk: Evidence From Russia And Kazakhstan

Author

Listed:
  • JIANPING LI

    (Institute of Policy & Management Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, P. R. China)

  • XIAOLEI SUN

    (Institute of Policy & Management Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, P. R. China;
    Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, P. R. China)

  • WAN HE

    (School of Economics, Renmin University of China, Beijing, 100872, P. R. China)

  • LING TANG

    (Institute of Policy & Management Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, P. R. China;
    Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, P. R. China)

  • WEIXUAN XU

    (Institute of Policy & Management Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, P. R. China)

Abstract

Oil economies in the Former Soviet Union (FSU) region, with geographical proximity to each other, are usually impacted by some common risk factors, which make their country risks closely correlated. This paper focuses on correlation between country risks and investigates the spillovers of country risk returns (CRR). Taking Russia and Kazakhstan for example, firstly, this paper identifies the structural breaks in CRR series, using iterated cumulative sums of squares (ICSS) algorithm. Secondly, on the assumption that there may be similarity in structural breaks of CRR series of the two countries, Vector Autoregression (VAR) process and Granger causality test are used to identify whether there are mean spillovers of CRR series. Finally, the volatility spillovers are captured by using multivariate conditional volatility models in the framework of the BEKK models. Empirical results show that (1) there are significant unidirectional mean spillovers from Russia to Kazakhstan; (2) there are asymmetric bidirectional volatility spillovers between Russia and Kazakhstan; and volatility spillover effects from Russia to Kazakhstan are stronger.

Suggested Citation

  • Jianping Li & Xiaolei Sun & Wan He & Ling Tang & Weixuan Xu, 2009. "Modeling Dynamic Correlations And Spillover Effects Of Country Risk: Evidence From Russia And Kazakhstan," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(04), pages 803-818.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ijitdm:v:08:y:2009:i:04:n:s0219622009003570
    DOI: 10.1142/S0219622009003570
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bigerna, Simona & Bollino, Carlo Andrea & Polinori, Paolo, 2021. "Oil import portfolio risk and spillover volatility," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    2. Chen, Sai & Song, Yan & Ding, Yueting & Zhang, Ming & Nie, Rui, 2021. "Using long short-term memory model to study risk assessment and prediction of China’s oil import from the perspective of resilience theory," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(PB).
    3. Sun, Xiaolei & Li, Jianping & Tang, Ling & Wu, Dengsheng, 2012. "Identifying the risk-return tradeoff and exploring the dynamic risk exposure of country portfolio of the FSU's oil economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2494-2503.
    4. Jianping Li & Xiaolei Sun & Fei Wang & Dengsheng Wu, 2015. "Risk integration and optimization of oil-importing maritime system: a multi-objective programming approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 234(1), pages 57-76, November.
    5. Stan Lipovetsky & Igor Mandel, 2017. "Coefficients of Structural Association," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 16(02), pages 285-313, March.
    6. Wang, Shuang & Wallace, Stein W. & Lu, Jing & Gu, Yewen, 2020. "Handling financial risks in crude oil imports: Taking into account crude oil prices as well as country and transportation risks," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    7. Sun, Xiaolei & Liu, Chang & Chen, Xiuwen & Li, Jianping, 2017. "Modeling systemic risk of crude oil imports: Case of China’s global oil supply chain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 449-465.
    8. Liu, Chang & Sun, Xiaolei & Chen, Jianming & Li, Jianping, 2016. "Statistical properties of country risk ratings under oil price volatility: Evidence from selected oil-exporting countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 234-245.
    9. Bigerna, Simona & D'Errico, Maria Chiara & Polinori, Paolo & Simshauer, Paul, 2022. "Renewable energy and portfolio volatility spillover effects of GCC oil exporting countries," MPRA Paper 114164, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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