IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cbt/econwp/16-14.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Financial Markets in the Face of the Apocalypse

Author

Listed:

Abstract

This paper brings together two strands of the literature: Quantifying the impact of apocalyptic risk on capital markets, and the correct computation of the equity risk premium. For the former, we use events in four countries during the Second World War to discern markets’ incorporation of information regarding the probability of an Armageddon for each country. We argue that past computations of the equity risk premium did not properly account for the financial implications of political collapse on property/civil/human rights. Accordingly, we show that past calculations overstated the equity risk premium. We provide an estimate of the equity risk premium that is corrected for lack of basic rights, demonstrating the important changes in this estimate over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Jędrzej Białkowski & Ehud I. Ronn, 2016. "Financial Markets in the Face of the Apocalypse," Working Papers in Economics 16/14, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbt:econwp:16/14
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repec.canterbury.ac.nz/cbt/econwp/1614.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frey, Bruno S. & Waldenstr M, Daniel, 2004. "Markets work in war: World War II reflected in the Zurich and Stockholm bond markets," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 51-67, April.
    2. Bruno Frey & Marcel Kucher, 2001. "Wars and Markets: How Bond Values Reflect the Second World War," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 68(271), pages 317-333, August.
    3. Philippe Jorion & William N. Goetzmann, 1999. "Global Stock Markets in the Twentieth Century," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(3), pages 953-980, June.
    4. Yong Tu & Helen X.H. Bao, 2009. "Property Rights and Housing Value: The Impacts of Political Instability," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 37(2), pages 235-257, June.
    5. Choudhry, Taufiq, 2010. "World War II events and the Dow Jones industrial index," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1022-1031, May.
    6. Stephen Knack & Philip Keefer, 1995. "Institutions And Economic Performance: Cross‐Country Tests Using Alternative Institutional Measures," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 207-227, November.
    7. Knack, Stephen & Keefer, Philip, 1995. "Institutions and Economic Performance: Cross-Country Tests Using Alternative Institutional Indicators," MPRA Paper 23118, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Willard, Kristen L & Guinnane, Timothy W & Rosen, Harvey S, 1996. "Turning Points in the Civil War: Views from the Greenback Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(4), pages 1001-1018, September.
    9. Berkman, Henk & Jacobsen, Ben & Lee, John B., 2011. "Time-varying rare disaster risk and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 313-332, August.
    10. Boubakri, Narjess & El Ghoul, Sadok & Saffar, Walid, 2014. "Political rights and equity pricing," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 326-344.
    11. Paul C. Tetlock, 2007. "Giving Content to Investor Sentiment: The Role of Media in the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1139-1168, June.
    12. Robert J. Barro & Jose F. Ursua, 2008. "Macroeconomic Crises since 1870," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(1 (Spring), pages 255-350.
    13. Paolo Mauro, 1995. "Corruption and Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(3), pages 681-712.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. William N. Goetzmann & Dasol Kim, 2018. "Negative bubbles: What happens after a crash," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 24(2), pages 171-191, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jędrzej Białkowski & Ehud I. Ronn, 2017. "The Global Equity Premium Revisited: What Human Rights Imply for Assets’ Purchasing Power," Working Papers in Economics 17/19, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    2. Białkowski, Jędrzej & Ronn, Ehud I., 2019. "The global equity premium revisited: What human rights imply for assets' purchasing power," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 175-187.
    3. Izzeldin, Marwan & Muradoğlu, Yaz Gülnur & Pappas, Vasileios & Petropoulou, Athina & Sivaprasad, Sheeja, 2023. "The impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on global financial markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    4. Hudson, Robert & Urquhart, Andrew, 2015. "War and stock markets: The effect of World War Two on the British stock market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 166-177.
    5. Ahmet Faruk AYSAN & Mustapha Kamel NABLI & Marie‐Ange VÉGANZONÈS‐VAROUDAKIS, 2007. "Governance Institutions And Private Investment: An Application To The Middle East And North Africa," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 45(3), pages 339-377, September.
    6. Knack, Steve & Xu, Lixin Colin, 2017. "Unbundling institutions for external finance: Worldwide firm-level evidence," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 215-232.
    7. Abderraouf Ben Ahmed Mtiraoui, 2015. "Governance, Human Capital and Economic Growth in OECD countries: Applying the dynamic panel data (GMM)," Working Papers hal-02528386, HAL.
    8. Andrea Asoni, 2008. "Protection Of Property Rights And Growth As Political Equilibria," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(5), pages 953-987, December.
    9. Shrabani Saha & Kunal Sen, 2019. "The corruption-growth relationship: Do political institutions matter?," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2019-65, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    10. Ghulam Shabbir & Mumtaz Anwar & Shahid Adil, 2016. "Corruption, Political Stability and Economic Growth," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 55(4), pages 689-702.
    11. Harashima, Taiji, 2017. "Should a Government Fiscally Intervene in a Recession and, If So, How?," MPRA Paper 78053, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Baur, Dirk G. & Smales, Lee A., 2020. "Hedging geopolitical risk with precious metals," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    13. Juan Carlos Cortázar Velarde & Mariano Lafuente & Mario Sanginés & Christian Schuster & Koldo Echebarría & Francisco Longo & Luciano Strazza & Mercedes Iacoviello, 2014. "A serviço do cidadão: Uma década de reformas no funcionalismo público na América (2004-13): Sumário Executivo," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 86408 edited by Juan Carlos Cortázar Velarde & Mariano Lafuente & Mario Sanginés, February.
    14. Smaoui, Houcem & Nechi, Salem, 2017. "Does sukuk market development spur economic growth?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 136-147.
    15. Timothy Besley & Thiemo Fetzer & Hannes Mueller, 2015. "The Welfare Cost Of Lawlessness: Evidence From Somali Piracy," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 203-239, April.
    16. Cai, Weixing & Hu, Feng & Xu, Fangming & Zheng, Liyi, 2022. "Anti-corruption campaign and corporate cash holdings: Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(PA).
    17. Pierre-Guillaume Méon & Laurent Weill, 2004. "Does better governance foster efficiency? An aggregate frontier analysis," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 75-90, January.
    18. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Sana Azzabi, 2014. "Intégration financière internationale et croissance économique dans les pays émergents et en développement : le canal du développement financier," Revue d’économie du développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 22(3), pages 27-68.
    19. Arminen, Heli & Menegaki, Angeliki N., 2019. "Corruption, climate and the energy-environment-growth nexus," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 621-634.
    20. Jesús Peiró-Palomino & Andrés J. Picazo-Tadeo, 2018. "Assessing well-being in European regions. Does government quality matter?," Working Papers 2018/06, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Rare (“black swan”) events; Equity premium; International political crises; property; civil; and human rights; World War II;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cbt:econwp:16/14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Albert Yee (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/decannz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.