IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/13990.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The War Next Door and the Reds are Coming: The Spanish Civil War and the Portuguese Stock Market

Author

Listed:
  • Tavares, José
  • Leitão, Diogo
  • Pereira, Jaime
  • Pereira Dos Santos, Joao

Abstract

The Spanish Civil War (July 1936 to April 1939) was a key event that paved the way for World War II, unfolding with unprecedented violence and uncertainty over the its outcome. In this paper, we analyze the impact of the events of the Spanish Civil War on the Portuguese stock returns. Portugal is a particularly interesting case for analysis given its geographical exposure and historical ties to Spain as well as its political ties to the Nationalist side. Unlike previous studies of stock market responses to World War II outcomes, in our period of analysis the world at large was at peace, allowing for a clearer attribution of causation. We examine investors’ reactions to news from the Spanish War using a panel of weekly returns for firms listed on the Lisbon Stock market, after classifying a series of important developments of the Spanish Civil War, classified according to its nature – military or political, and which contender emerged as favored – the Republicans, on the left, or the Nationalists, on the right. We run dynamic specifications with firm and month fixed effects, controlling for the reference interest rate in London, and events in Portugal. Our results reveal that Spanish Civil War events affect returns negatively, especially events that are military in nature. When we break down our sample into overseas firms – those whose most significant assets were located in Africa – and non-overseas firms, the latter present more significant effects from the event variables, especially from the Pro-Republican military events. Our findings are robust to the different specifications and suggest that both general uncertainty and partisan preferences affect Portuguese returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Tavares, José & Leitão, Diogo & Pereira, Jaime & Pereira Dos Santos, Joao, 2019. "The War Next Door and the Reds are Coming: The Spanish Civil War and the Portuguese Stock Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 13990, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13990
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP13990
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas Ferguson & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2008. "Betting on Hitler—The Value of Political Connections in Nazi Germany," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(1), pages 101-137.
    2. Daron Acemoglu & Tarek A. Hassan & Ahmed Tahoun, 2018. "The Power of the Street: Evidence from Egypt’s Arab Spring," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(1), pages 1-42.
    3. Kilian Huber & Volker Lindenthal & Fabian Waldinger, 2021. "Discrimination, Managers, and Firm Performance: Evidence from “Aryanizations” in Nazi Germany," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(9), pages 2455-2503.
    4. Óscar Afonso & Álvaro Aguiar, 2004. "Comércio Externo e Crescimento da Economia Portuguesa no Século XX," FEP Working Papers 146, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    5. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
    6. Nicola Gennaioli & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2015. "State Capacity and Military Conflict," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(4), pages 1409-1448.
    7. José RODRIGUES DA COSTA & Maria Eugénia MATA & David JUSTINO, 2012. "Estimating the Portuguese Average Cost of Capital," Historical Social Research (Section 'Cliometrics'), Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 37(2), pages 326-361.
    8. Voth, Hans-Joachim, 2002. "Why was Stock Market Volatility so High During the Great Depression? Evidence from 10 Countries During the Interwar Period," CEPR Discussion Papers 3254, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Berkman, Henk & Jacobsen, Ben & Lee, John B., 2011. "Time-varying rare disaster risk and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 313-332, August.
    10. Robert J. Barro, 2006. "Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(3), pages 823-866.
    11. Frey, Bruno S. & Kucher, Marcel, 2000. "History as Reflected in Capital Markets: The Case of World War II," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(2), pages 468-496, June.
    12. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    13. Johnson, Simon & Mitton, Todd, 2003. "Cronyism and capital controls: evidence from Malaysia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 351-382, February.
    14. Luciano Amaral, 2018. "A monetary plethora and what to do with it: the Bank of Portugal during the Second World War and the postwar period (1931–60)," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 71(3), pages 795-822, August.
    15. Choudhry, Taufiq, 2010. "World War II events and the Dow Jones industrial index," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1022-1031, May.
    16. Anderson, T. W. & Hsiao, Cheng, 1982. "Formulation and estimation of dynamic models using panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-82, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier, 2014. "Large shocks in the volatility of the Dow Jones Industrial Average index: 1928–2013," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 188-199.
    2. Hallward-Driemeier,Mary C. & Kochanova,Anna & Rijkers,Bob, 2020. "Does Democratization Promote Competition? : Indonesian Manufacturing Pre and Post Suharto," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9112, The World Bank.
    3. Daron Acemoglu & Tarek A. Hassan & Ahmed Tahoun, 2018. "The Power of the Street: Evidence from Egypt’s Arab Spring," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(1), pages 1-42.
    4. Ergun, Lerby M., 2016. "Disaster and fortune risk in asset returns," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 66194, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Gröschl, Jasmin, 2014. "Naturally negative: The growth effects of natural disasters," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 92-106.
    6. Alexander Opitz, 2018. "“Comrades, Let's March!”.† The Revolution of 1905 and its impact on financial markets," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 22(1), pages 28-52.
    7. Silva, Thiago Christiano & Wilhelm, Paulo Victor Berri & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2023. "Trade matters except to war neighbors: The international stock market reaction to 2022 Russia’s invasion of Ukraine," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    8. Dang, Vinh Q.T. & So, Erin P.K. & Yan, Isabel K.M., 2018. "The value of political connection: Evidence from the 2011 Egyptian revolution," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 238-257.
    9. Schioppa, Claudio A. & Papadia, Andrea, 2015. "Foreign Debt and Secondary Markets: The Case of Interwar Germany," MPRA Paper 102863, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2016.
    10. Turner, John D., 2014. "Financial history and financial economics," QUCEH Working Paper Series 14-03, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's University Centre for Economic History.
    11. Andrea Papadia & Claudio A. Schioppa, 2024. "Foreign Debt, Capital Controls, and Secondary Markets: Theory and Evidence from Nazi Germany," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(6), pages 2074-2112.
    12. Lehrer, Nimrod David, 2018. "The value of political connections in a multiparty parliamentary democracy: Evidence from the 2015 elections in Israel," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 13-58.
    13. Berkman, Henk & Jacobsen, Ben & Lee, John B., 2011. "Time-varying rare disaster risk and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 313-332, August.
    14. Izzeldin, Marwan & Muradoğlu, Yaz Gülnur & Pappas, Vasileios & Petropoulou, Athina & Sivaprasad, Sheeja, 2023. "The impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on global financial markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    15. Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr, 2016. "Is there a link between politics and stock returns? A literature survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 15-23.
    16. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Kermani, Amir & Kwak, James & Mitton, Todd, 2016. "The value of connections in turbulent times: Evidence from the United States," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(2), pages 368-391.
    17. Lerby Ergun, 2019. "Extreme Downside Risk in Asset Returns," Staff Working Papers 19-46, Bank of Canada.
    18. In Huh & Ju Hyun Pyun, 2018. "Does Nuclear Uncertainty Threaten Financial Markets? The Attention Paid to North Korean Nuclear Threats and Its Impact on South Korea's Financial Markets," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 32(1), pages 55-82, March.
    19. Manuel Funke & Moritz Schularick & Christoph Trebesch, 2023. "Populist Leaders and the Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(12), pages 3249-3288, December.
    20. Serge Coulombe, 2008. "Employment Adjustments in High-Trade-Exposed Manufacturing in Canada," Working Papers 0803E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic history; Spanish civil war; Stock price; Financial markets; Uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • N43 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • N83 - Economic History - - Micro-Business History - - - Europe: Pre-1913

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13990. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.