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Standard deviations implied in option prices as predictors of future stock price variability

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Cited by:

  1. Christian Walter & Jose Lopez, 1997. "Is implied correlation worth calculating? Evidence from foreign exchange options and historical data," Research Paper 9730, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  2. Butler, J. S. & Schachter, Barry, 1996. "The statistical properties of parameters inferred from the black-scholes formula," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 223-235.
  3. Ghysels, E. & Harvey, A. & Renault, E., 1995. "Stochastic Volatility," Papers 95.400, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
  4. David R. Peterson, 1986. "An Empirical Test Of An Ex-Ante Model Of The Determination Of Stock Return Volatility," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 9(3), pages 203-214, September.
  5. McAleer, Michael & Wiphatthanananthakul, Chatayan, 2010. "A simple expected volatility (SEV) index: Application to SET50 index options," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 80(10), pages 2079-2090.
  6. Veld, C.H., 1989. "The use of the implied standard deviation as a predictor of future stock price variability : A review of empirical tests," Research Memorandum FEW 410, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  7. Agnolucci, Paolo, 2009. "Volatility in crude oil futures: A comparison of the predictive ability of GARCH and implied volatility models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 316-321, March.
  8. Steven Li & Qianqian Yang, 2009. "The relationship between implied and realized volatility: evidence from the Australian stock index option market," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 405-419, May.
  9. Lyons, Richard K., 1988. "Tests of the foreign exchange risk premium using the expected second moments implied by option pricing," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 91-108, March.
  10. Hwang, Soosung & Satchell, Stephen E., 2000. "Market risk and the concept of fundamental volatility: Measuring volatility across asset and derivative markets and testing for the impact of derivatives markets on financial markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 759-785, May.
  11. Campa, Jose Manuel & Chang, P. H. Kevin, 1998. "The forecasting ability of correlations implied in foreign exchange options," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 855-880, December.
  12. Stamey, James & Gerlach, Richard, 2007. "Bayesian sample size determination for case-control studies with misclassification," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 2982-2992, March.
  13. Haushalter, G. David & Heron, Randall A. & Lie, Erik, 2002. "Price uncertainty and corporate value," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 271-286, July.
  14. Chuang, Wen-I & Huang, Teng-Ching & Lin, Bing-Huei, 2013. "Predicting volatility using the Markov-switching multifractal model: Evidence from S&P 100 index and equity options," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 168-187.
  15. Christopher J. Neely, 2005. "Using implied volatility to measure uncertainty about interest rates," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 407-425.
  16. Mantin, Benny & Gillen, David, 2011. "The hidden information content of price movements," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 211(2), pages 385-393, June.
  17. Koopman, Siem Jan & Jungbacker, Borus & Hol, Eugenie, 2005. "Forecasting daily variability of the S&P 100 stock index using historical, realised and implied volatility measurements," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 445-475, June.
  18. Olga Isengildina-Massa & Scott H. Irwin & Darrel L. Good & Jennifer K. Gomez, 2008. "Impact of WASDE reports on implied volatility in corn and soybean markets," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 473-490.
  19. David S. Bates, 1995. "Testing Option Pricing Models," NBER Working Papers 5129, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Neely, Christopher J., 2009. "Forecasting foreign exchange volatility: Why is implied volatility biased and inefficient? And does it matter?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 188-205, February.
  21. Ser-Huang Poon & Clive W.J. Granger, 2003. "Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 478-539, June.
  22. Hung, Juann H, 1997. "Intervention strategies and exchange rate volatility: a noise trading perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 779-793, September.
  23. Smith, Paul & Gronewoller, Paul & Rose, Lawrence C., 1998. "Pricing efficiency on the New Zealand Futures and Options Exchange," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 49-62, January.
  24. Fengler, Matthias R. & Wang, Qihua, 2003. "Fitting the Smile Revisited: A Least Squares Kernel Estimator for the Implied Volatility Surface," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2003,25, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  25. Veld, C.H., 1991. "Motives for the use of equity-warrants by Dutch companies," Research Memorandum FEW 503, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  26. Tzang, Shyh-Weir & Hung, Chih-Hsing & Wang, Chou-Wen & Shyu, David So-De, 2011. "Do liquidity and sampling methods matter in constructing volatility indices? Empirical evidence from Taiwan," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 312-324, April.
  27. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George & Hassani, Hossein, 2015. "Forecasting implied volatility indices worldwide: A new approach," MPRA Paper 72084, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  28. Mircea ASANDULUI, 2012. "On forecasting stock options volatility: evidence from London international financial futures and options exchange," Anale. Seria Stiinte Economice. Timisoara, Faculty of Economics, Tibiscus University in Timisoara, vol. 0, pages 505-511, May.
  29. Gomes, Frederico Pechir & Takami, Marcelo Yoshio & Brandi, Vinicius Ratton, 2008. "Investigating Unusual Changes in Real-Dollar Exchange Rate," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 62(2), October.
  30. Chikashi Tsuji, 2003. "Is Volatility the Best Predictor of Market Crashes?," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 10(2), pages 163-185, September.
  31. repec:bla:acctfi:v:57:y:2017:i:3:p:815-836 is not listed on IDEAS
  32. Horst Rottmann & Franz Seitz, 2004. "Credit Spreads und ihre Determinanten in Deutschland," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 57(24), pages 10-14, December.
  33. Lan Zhang, 2012. "Implied and realized volatility: empirical model selection," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 259-275, May.
  34. Wiphatthanananthakul, C. & McAleer, M.J., 2008. "A simple expected volatility (SEV) index," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2008-35, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  35. Kent Wang, 2009. "Volatility linkages of the equity, bond and money markets: an implied volatility approach," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 49(1), pages 207-219.
  36. Sherrick, Bruce J. & Irwin, Scott H. & Forster, D. Lynn, 1990. "Nonstationarity Of Soybean Futures Price Distributions: Option-Based Evidence," Illinois Agricultural Economics Staff Paper 244666, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
  37. Brown, C. A. & Taylor, S. D., 1997. "A test of the Asay model for pricing options on the SPI futures contract," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 5(5), pages 579-594, December.
  38. Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris & Chang, Bo Young, 2013. "Forecasting with Option-Implied Information," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
  39. Ncube, Mthuli, 1996. "Modelling implied volatility with OLS and panel data models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 71-84, January.
  40. Guan Wang & Pierre Yourougou & Yue Wang, 2012. "Which implied volatility provides the best measure of future volatility?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 36(1), pages 93-105, January.
  41. Donders, Monique W. M. & Vorst, Ton C. F., 1996. "The impact of firm specific news on implied volatilities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(9), pages 1447-1461, November.
  42. Wilkens, Sascha & Roder, Klaus, 2006. "The informational content of option-implied distributions: Evidence from the Eurex index and interest rate futures options market," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 50-74, September.
  43. Alan L. Tucker, 1985. "Empirical Tests Of The Efficiency Of The Currency Option Market," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 8(4), pages 275-285, December.
  44. Owain Ap Gwilym & Mike Buckle, 1999. "Volatility forecasting in the framework of the option expiry cycle," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 73-94.
  45. Engstrom, Malin, 2002. "Do Swedes smile? On implied volatility functions," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 12(4-5), pages 285-304.
  46. Ben Hunt, 1991. "A Forecasting Model of Option Pricing Volatility," Working Paper Series 10, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  47. A. J. Lawrance, 2013. "Exploratory graphics for financial time series volatility," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 62(5), pages 669-686, November.
  48. Mircea ASANDULUI, 2012. "A Multi-Horizon Comparison Of Volatility Forecasts: An Application To Stock Options Traded At Euronext Exchange Amsterdam," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 10, pages 179-190, December.
  49. Cabedo, J. David & Moya Clemente, Ismael, 2005. "Implied Volatility as a Predictor: the Case of the IBEX-35 Future Contract/La volatilidad implícita como herramienta de predicción: una aplicación al contrato de futuro sobre Ibex 35," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 23, pages 67-78, Abril.
  50. Bronka Rzepkowski, 2001. "Pouvoir prédictif de la volatilité implicite dans le prix des options de change," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 148(2), pages 71-97.
  51. Veld, C.H., 1991. "Warrant pricing : A review of theoretical and empirical research," Research Memorandum FEW 479, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  52. Veld, C.H. & Verboven, A.H.F., 1993. "An empirical analysis of warrant prices versus long term call option prices," Research Memorandum FEW 594, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  53. Linda S. Klein & David R. Peterson, 1988. "Investor Expectations Of Volatility Increases Around Large Stock Splits As Implied In Call Option Premia," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 11(1), pages 71-80, March.
  54. Pilar Corredor-Casado & Rafael Santamaría-Aquilué, 2000. "La estructura temporal de las volatilidades implícitas en la opción sobre el IBEX-35," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 24(2), pages 385-417, May.
  55. Esther Weinstock Ancel & Ramesh K. S. Rao, 1990. "Stock Returns And Option Prices: An Exploratory Study," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 13(3), pages 173-185, September.
  56. Alok Kumar Mishra & Siba Prasad Panda, 2016. "Looking into the relationship between implied and realized volatility: a study on S&P CNX Nifty index option," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 6(1), pages 67-96, April.
  57. Anagnostopoulou, Seraina C. & Tsekrekos, Andrianos E., 2015. "Accounting quality, information risk and implied volatility around earnings announcements," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 188-207.
  58. Schlögl, Erik, 2013. "Option pricing where the underlying assets follow a Gram/Charlier density of arbitrary order," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 611-632.
  59. Singh Vipul Kumar, 2014. "Competency of Monte Carlo and Black–Scholes in pricing Nifty index options: A vis-à-vis study," Monte Carlo Methods and Applications, De Gruyter, vol. 20(1), pages 61-76, March.
  60. Eugenie Hol & Siem Jan Koopman, 2000. "Forecasting the Variability of Stock Index Returns with Stochastic Volatility Models and Implied Volatility," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 00-104/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  61. repec:eee:intfor:v:33:y:2017:i:4:p:848-863 is not listed on IDEAS
  62. Szakmary, Andrew & Ors, Evren & Kyoung Kim, Jin & Davidson, Wallace III, 2003. "The predictive power of implied volatility: Evidence from 35 futures markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(11), pages 2151-2175, November.
  63. Pilar Corredor Casado & Rafael SantamarÌa, "undated". "La estructura temporal de las volatilidades implícitas en la opción sobre el Ibex-35," Studies on the Spanish Economy 04, FEDEA.
  64. Neuhaus, Holger, 1995. "Der Informationsgehalt von Derivaten für die Geldpolitik: Implizite Volatilitäten und Wahrscheinlichkeiten," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1995,03, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  65. Neuhaus, Holger, 1995. "The information content of derivatives for monetary policy: Implied volatilities and probabilities," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1995,03e, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  66. repec:eee:ecmode:v:64:y:2017:i:c:p:449-464 is not listed on IDEAS
  67. Viteva, Svetlana & Veld-Merkoulova, Yulia V. & Campbell, Kevin, 2014. "The forecasting accuracy of implied volatility from ECX carbon options," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 475-484.
  68. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
  69. Heping Pan, 2012. "Yin-yang volatility in scale space of price-time: a core structure of financial market risk," China Finance Review International, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 2(2), pages 377-405, August.
  70. Vipul Kumar Singh, 2013. "Effectiveness of volatility models in option pricing: evidence from recent financial upheavals," Journal of Advances in Management Research, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 10(3), pages 352-375, October.
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