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Standard deviations implied in option prices as predictors of future stock price variability

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Cited by:

  1. Jose A. Lopez & Christian Walter, 1997. "Is implied correlation worth calculating? Evidence from foreign exchange options and historical data," Research Paper 9730, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  2. David R. Peterson, 1986. "An Empirical Test Of An Ex-Ante Model Of The Determination Of Stock Return Volatility," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 9(3), pages 203-214, September.
  3. Veld, C.H., 1989. "The use of the implied standard deviation as a predictor of future stock price variability : A review of empirical tests," Other publications TiSEM 08556ccd-9dff-4b7e-8de8-2, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  4. Tsiaras, Leonidas, 2009. "The Forecast Performance of Competing Implied Volatility Measures: The Case of Individual Stocks," Finance Research Group Working Papers F-2009-02, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
  5. Lyons, Richard K., 1988. "Tests of the foreign exchange risk premium using the expected second moments implied by option pricing," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 91-108, March.
  6. Sherrick, Bruce J. & Irwin, Scott H. & Forster, D. Lynn, 1990. "Nonstationarity Of Soybean Futures Price Distributions: Option-Based Evidence," Illinois Agricultural Economics Staff Paper 244666, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
  7. Hwang, Soosung & Satchell, Stephen E., 2000. "Market risk and the concept of fundamental volatility: Measuring volatility across asset and derivative markets and testing for the impact of derivatives markets on financial markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 759-785, May.
  8. Campa, Jose Manuel & Chang, P. H. Kevin, 1998. "The forecasting ability of correlations implied in foreign exchange options," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 855-880, December.
  9. Chuang, Wen-I & Huang, Teng-Ching & Lin, Bing-Huei, 2013. "Predicting volatility using the Markov-switching multifractal model: Evidence from S&P 100 index and equity options," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 168-187.
  10. Christopher J. Neely, 2005. "Using implied volatility to measure uncertainty about interest rates," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 87(May), pages 407-425.
  11. Mantin, Benny & Gillen, David, 2011. "The hidden information content of price movements," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 211(2), pages 385-393, June.
  12. David S. Bates, 1995. "Testing Option Pricing Models," NBER Working Papers 5129, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Neely, Christopher J., 2009. "Forecasting foreign exchange volatility: Why is implied volatility biased and inefficient? And does it matter?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 188-205, February.
  14. Ser-Huang Poon & Clive W.J. Granger, 2003. "Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 478-539, June.
  15. Hung, Juann H, 1997. "Intervention strategies and exchange rate volatility: a noise trading perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 779-793, September.
  16. Smith, Paul & Gronewoller, Paul & Rose, Lawrence C., 1998. "Pricing efficiency on the New Zealand Futures and Options Exchange," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 49-62, January.
  17. Veld, C.H., 1991. "Motives for the use of equity-warrants by Dutch companies," Other publications TiSEM 65df228c-ddcd-4604-882e-2, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  18. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George & Hassani, Hossein, 2015. "Forecasting implied volatility indices worldwide: A new approach," MPRA Paper 72084, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  19. Tzang, Shyh-Weir & Hung, Chih-Hsing & Wang, Chou-Wen & Shyu, David So-De, 2011. "Do liquidity and sampling methods matter in constructing volatility indices? Empirical evidence from Taiwan," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 312-324, April.
  20. Dai, Zhifeng & Zhou, Huiting & Wen, Fenghua & He, Shaoyi, 2020. "Efficient predictability of stock return volatility: The role of stock market implied volatility," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
  21. Peng, Qing & Li, Jie & Zhao, Yu & Wu, Han, 2021. "The informational content of implied volatility: Application to the USD/JPY exchange rates," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
  22. Chikashi Tsuji, 2003. "Is Volatility the Best Predictor of Market Crashes?," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 10(2), pages 163-185, September.
  23. José R. Aragonés & Carlos Blanco & Pablo García Estévez, 2007. "Neural network volatility forecasts," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(3‐4), pages 107-121, July.
  24. K. Ronnie Sircar & George Papanicolaou, 1998. "General Black-Scholes models accounting for increased market volatility from hedging strategies," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 45-82.
  25. Cristina Chinazzo & Vahidin Jeleskovic, 2024. "Forecasting Bitcoin Volatility: A Comparative Analysis of Volatility Approaches," Papers 2401.02049, arXiv.org.
  26. Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris & Chang, Bo Young, 2013. "Forecasting with Option-Implied Information," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 581-656, Elsevier.
  27. K. Ronnie Sircar & George Papanicolaou, 1999. "Stochastic volatility, smile & asymptotics," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 107-145.
  28. Ncube, Mthuli, 1996. "Modelling implied volatility with OLS and panel data models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 71-84, January.
  29. Donders, Monique W. M. & Vorst, Ton C. F., 1996. "The impact of firm specific news on implied volatilities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(9), pages 1447-1461, November.
  30. Wilkens, Sascha & Roder, Klaus, 2006. "The informational content of option-implied distributions: Evidence from the Eurex index and interest rate futures options market," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 50-74, September.
  31. Dudley Gilder & Leonidas Tsiaras, 2020. "Volatility forecasts embedded in the prices of crude‐oil options," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(7), pages 1127-1159, July.
  32. Arnade, Carlos Anthony & Hoffman, Linwood A., 2020. "The Impact of Public Information on Commodity Market Performance : The Response of Corn Futures to USDA Corn Production Forecasts," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304181, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  33. Ben Hunt, 1991. "A Forecasting Model of Option Pricing Volatility," Working Paper Series 10, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  34. A. J. Lawrance, 2013. "Exploratory graphics for financial time series volatility," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 62(5), pages 669-686, November.
  35. Huiling Yuan & Yong Zhou & Zhiyuan Zhang & Xiangyu Cui, 2019. "Forecasting security's volatility using low-frequency historical data, high-frequency historical data and option-implied volatility," Papers 1907.02666, arXiv.org.
  36. McAleer, Michael & Wiphatthanananthakul, Chatayan, 2010. "A simple expected volatility (SEV) index: Application to SET50 index options," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 80(10), pages 2079-2090.
  37. Mircea ASANDULUI, 2012. "A Multi-Horizon Comparison Of Volatility Forecasts: An Application To Stock Options Traded At Euronext Exchange Amsterdam," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 10, pages 179-190, December.
  38. Miao, Hong & Ramchander, Sanjay & Ryan, Patricia & Wang, Tianyang, 2018. "Default prediction models: The role of forward-looking measures of returns and volatility," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 146-162.
  39. Murad Samsudin, Najmi Ismail & Mohamad, Azhar & Sifat, Imtiaz Mohammad, 2021. "Implied volatility of structured warrants: Emerging market evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 464-479.
  40. Irwin, Scott H. & Pelly, Robert A. & Zulauf, Carl R., 1989. "An Investigation of Pricing Models for Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle Options," Staff Papers 232393, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
  41. Turvey, Calum G., 1989. "Weighting Implied Volatilities from Soybean and Live Cattle Options," 1989 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 2, Baton Rouge, Louisiana 270696, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  42. Veld, C.H., 1991. "Warrant pricing : A review of theoretical and empirical research," Other publications TiSEM ac252bad-d1c0-45d6-832a-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  43. Ghysels, E. & Harvey, A. & Renault, E., 1995. "Stochastic Volatility," Papers 95.400, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
  44. Veld, C.H. & Verboven, A.H.F., 1993. "An empirical analysis of warrant prices versus long term call option prices," Other publications TiSEM f7168f53-297f-409c-807c-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  45. Linda S. Klein & David R. Peterson, 1988. "Investor Expectations Of Volatility Increases Around Large Stock Splits As Implied In Call Option Premia," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 11(1), pages 71-80, March.
  46. Anagnostopoulou, Seraina C. & Tsekrekos, Andrianos E., 2015. "Accounting quality, information risk and implied volatility around earnings announcements," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 188-207.
  47. Ozge Sezgin Alp, 2016. "The Performance of Skewness and Kurtosis Adjusted Option Pricing Model in Emerging Markets: A case of Turkish Derivatives Market," International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies, Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 5(3), pages 70-84, April.
  48. Yibing Chen & Cheng-Few Lee & John Lee & Jow-Ran Chang, 2018. "Alternative Methods to Estimate Implied Variance: Review and Comparison," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(04), pages 1-28, December.
  49. Singh Vipul Kumar, 2014. "Competency of Monte Carlo and Black–Scholes in pricing Nifty index options: A vis-à-vis study," Monte Carlo Methods and Applications, De Gruyter, vol. 20(1), pages 61-76, March.
  50. Eugenie Hol & Siem Jan Koopman, 2000. "Forecasting the Variability of Stock Index Returns with Stochastic Volatility Models and Implied Volatility," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 00-104/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  51. Szakmary, Andrew & Ors, Evren & Kyoung Kim, Jin & Davidson, Wallace III, 2003. "The predictive power of implied volatility: Evidence from 35 futures markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(11), pages 2151-2175, November.
  52. Groh, Alexander P., 2004. "Risikoadjustierte Performance von Private Equity-Investitionen," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 21382, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
  53. Neuhaus, Holger, 1995. "Der Informationsgehalt von Derivaten für die Geldpolitik: Implizite Volatilitäten und Wahrscheinlichkeiten," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1995,03, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  54. Koopman, Siem Jan & Jungbacker, Borus & Hol, Eugenie, 2005. "Forecasting daily variability of the S&P 100 stock index using historical, realised and implied volatility measurements," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 445-475, June.
  55. Neuhaus, Holger, 1995. "The information content of derivatives for monetary policy: Implied volatilities and probabilities," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1995,03e, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  56. Rebecca N. Hann & Heedong Kim & Yue Zheng, 2019. "Intra-industry information transfers: evidence from changes in implied volatility around earnings announcements," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 927-971, September.
  57. Zhi Dong & Tien Foo Sing, 2021. "Do Investors Overreact for Property and Financial Service Sectors?," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 20(1), pages 79-123, April.
  58. Viteva, Svetlana & Veld-Merkoulova, Yulia V. & Campbell, Kevin, 2014. "The forecasting accuracy of implied volatility from ECX carbon options," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 475-484.
  59. Wei-han Liu, 2019. "National culture effects on stock market volatility level," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1229-1253, October.
  60. Jeong‐Bon Kim & Jeff J. Wang & Eliza Xia Zhang, 2021. "Does real earnings smoothing reduce investors’ perceived risk?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(9-10), pages 1560-1595, October.
  61. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
  62. Manfredo, Mark R. & Leuthold, Raymond M. & Irwin, Scott H., 2001. "Forecasting Fed Cattle, Feeder Cattle, And Corn Cash Price Volatility: The Accuracy Of Time Series, Implied Volatility, And Composite Approaches," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 33(3), pages 1-16, December.
  63. Butler, J. S. & Schachter, Barry, 1996. "The statistical properties of parameters inferred from the black-scholes formula," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 223-235.
  64. Radu Tunaru, 2015. "Model Risk in Financial Markets:From Financial Engineering to Risk Management," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 9524, January.
  65. Agnolucci, Paolo, 2009. "Volatility in crude oil futures: A comparison of the predictive ability of GARCH and implied volatility models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 316-321, March.
  66. Yacin Jerbi, 2015. "A new closed-form solution as an extension of the Black-Scholes formula allowing smile curve plotting," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(12), pages 2041-2052, December.
  67. Steven Li & Qianqian Yang, 2009. "The relationship between implied and realized volatility: evidence from the Australian stock index option market," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 405-419, May.
  68. Yafeng Shi & Tingting Ying & Yanlong Shi & Chunrong Ai, 2020. "A comparison of conditional predictive ability of implied volatility and realized measures in forecasting volatility," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(7), pages 1025-1034, November.
  69. William Pedersen, 1998. "Capturing all the information in foreign currency option prices: solving for one versus two implied variables," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(12), pages 1679-1683.
  70. Alex Frino & Caihong Xu & Z. Ivy Zhou, 2022. "Are option traders more informed than Twitter users? A PVAR analysis," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(9), pages 1755-1771, September.
  71. Stamey, James & Gerlach, Richard, 2007. "Bayesian sample size determination for case-control studies with misclassification," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 2982-2992, March.
  72. Imlak Shaikh & Puja Padhi, 2013. "On the Linkages among Ex-ante and Ex-post Volatility: Evidence from NSE Options Market (India)," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 14(3), pages 487-505, September.
  73. Haushalter, G. David & Heron, Randall A. & Lie, Erik, 2002. "Price uncertainty and corporate value," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 271-286, July.
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  78. Fengler, Matthias R. & Wang, Qihua, 2003. "Fitting the Smile Revisited: A Least Squares Kernel Estimator for the Implied Volatility Surface," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2003,25, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
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  83. Zhangxin (Frank) Liu & Michael J. O'Neill & Tom Smith, 2017. "State-preference pricing and volatility indices," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57(3), pages 815-836, September.
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