IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mfj/journl/v13y2009i3-4p189-208.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling Volatility in Foreign Currency Option Pricing

Author

Listed:
  • Ariful Hoque

    (Curtin University of Technology, Australia)

  • Felix Chan

    (Curtin University of Technology, Australia)

  • Meher Manzur

    (Curtin University of Technology, Australia)

Abstract

This paper presents a general optimization framework to forecast put and call option prices by exploiting the volatility of the options prices. The approach is flexible in that different objective functions for predicting the underlying volatility can be modified and adapted in the proposed framework. The framework is implemented empirically for four major currencies, including Euro. The forecast performance of this framework is compared with those of the Multiplicative Error Model (MEM) of implied volatility and the GARCH(1,1). The results indicate that the proposed framework is capable of producing reasonable accurate forecasts for put and call prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Ariful Hoque & Felix Chan & Meher Manzur, 2009. "Modeling Volatility in Foreign Currency Option Pricing," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 13(3-4), pages 189-208, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:mfj:journl:v:13:y:2009:i:3-4:p:189-208
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.mfsociety.org/modules/modDashboard/uploadFiles/journals/MJ~773~p16ueja66t19m73r01u97jdlff54.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.mfsociety.org/modules/modDashboard/uploadFiles/journals/googleScholar/794.html
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert Engle, 2002. "New frontiers for arch models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 425-446.
    2. Allen, David & Chan, Felix & McAleer, Michael & Peiris, Shelton, 2008. "Finite sample properties of the QMLE for the Log-ACD model: Application to Australian stocks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 163-185, November.
    3. Canina, Linda & Figlewski, Stephen, 1993. "The Informational Content of Implied Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 659-681.
    4. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    5. Beckers, Stan, 1981. "Standard deviations implied in option prices as predictors of future stock price variability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 363-381, September.
    6. Riadh Belhaj, 2006. "The Valuation of Options on Bonds with Default Risk," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 10(3-4), pages 277-306, September.
    7. Christensen, B. J. & Prabhala, N. R., 1998. "The relation between implied and realized volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 125-150, November.
    8. Ederington, Louis H. & Lee, Jae Ha, 1996. "The Creation and Resolution of Market Uncertainty: The Impact of Information Releases on Implied Volatility," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(4), pages 513-539, December.
    9. Chiras, Donald P. & Manaster, Steven, 1978. "The information content of option prices and a test of market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2-3), pages 213-234.
    10. Bates, David S., 2000. "Post-'87 crash fears in the S&P 500 futures option market," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 181-238.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sabiruzzaman, Md. & Monimul Huq, Md. & Beg, Rabiul Alam & Anwar, Sajid, 2010. "Modeling and forecasting trading volume index: GARCH versus TGARCH approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 141-145, May.
    2. Ariful Hoque, 2011. "Transaction Cost Discovery By Decomposition Of The Error Term: A Bootstrapping Approach," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 5(1), pages 113-121.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris & Chang, Bo Young, 2013. "Forecasting with Option-Implied Information," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 581-656, Elsevier.
    2. Szakmary, Andrew & Ors, Evren & Kyoung Kim, Jin & Davidson, Wallace III, 2003. "The predictive power of implied volatility: Evidence from 35 futures markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(11), pages 2151-2175, November.
    3. Neely, Christopher J., 2009. "Forecasting foreign exchange volatility: Why is implied volatility biased and inefficient? And does it matter?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 188-205, February.
    4. Tsiaras, Leonidas, 2009. "The Forecast Performance of Competing Implied Volatility Measures: The Case of Individual Stocks," Finance Research Group Working Papers F-2009-02, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
    5. Peter Carr & Liuren Wu, 2004. "Variance Risk Premia," Finance 0409015, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Chun, Dohyun & Cho, Hoon & Ryu, Doojin, 2019. "Forecasting the KOSPI200 spot volatility using various volatility measures," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 514(C), pages 156-166.
    7. Murad Samsudin, Najmi Ismail & Mohamad, Azhar & Sifat, Imtiaz Mohammad, 2021. "Implied volatility of structured warrants: Emerging market evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 464-479.
    8. Wilkens, Sascha & Roder, Klaus, 2006. "The informational content of option-implied distributions: Evidence from the Eurex index and interest rate futures options market," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 50-74, September.
    9. Kim, Minho & Kim, Minchoul, 2003. "Implied volatility dynamics in the foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 511-528, August.
    10. Chuang, Wen-I & Huang, Teng-Ching & Lin, Bing-Huei, 2013. "Predicting volatility using the Markov-switching multifractal model: Evidence from S&P 100 index and equity options," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 168-187.
    11. Imlak Shaikh & Puja Padhi, 2013. "On the Linkages among Ex-ante and Ex-post Volatility: Evidence from NSE Options Market (India)," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 14(3), pages 487-505, September.
    12. Ghysels, E. & Harvey, A. & Renault, E., 1995. "Stochastic Volatility," Papers 95.400, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
    13. Steven Li & Qianqian Yang, 2009. "The relationship between implied and realized volatility: evidence from the Australian stock index option market," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 405-419, May.
    14. Guan Wang & Pierre Yourougou & Yue Wang, 2012. "Which implied volatility provides the best measure of future volatility?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 36(1), pages 93-105, January.
    15. Dai, Zhifeng & Zhou, Huiting & Wen, Fenghua & He, Shaoyi, 2020. "Efficient predictability of stock return volatility: The role of stock market implied volatility," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    16. Dicle, Mehmet F. & Levendis, John, 2020. "Historic risk and implied volatility," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    17. Eugenie Hol & Siem Jan Koopman, 2000. "Forecasting the Variability of Stock Index Returns with Stochastic Volatility Models and Implied Volatility," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 00-104/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    18. Bhabra, G.S. & Gonzalez, M.L. & Sup, K.M. & Powell, J.G., 1999. "Did Option Traders Predict the Korean Financial Crisis of 1997?," Economics Working Papers wp99-17, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    19. Chernov, Mikhail, 2007. "On the Role of Risk Premia in Volatility Forecasting," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 411-426, October.
    20. Bams, Dennis & Blanchard, Gildas & Lehnert, Thorsten, 2017. "Volatility measures and Value-at-Risk," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 848-863.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign currency options; implied volatility; optimal volatility; multiplicative error model; GARCH model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mfj:journl:v:13:y:2009:i:3-4:p:189-208. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Theodossiou Panayiotis (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/mfsssea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.