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Citations for "(Un)Predictability and Macroeconomic Stability"

by D'Agostino, Antonello & Giannone, Domenico & Surico, Paolo

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  1. Rossi, Barbara, 2013. "Advances in Forecasting under Instability," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
  2. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Small, David, 2008. "Nowcasting: The real-time informational content of macroeconomic data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 665-676, May.
  3. Antonello D’Agostino & Kieran Mcquinn & Karl Whelan, 2012. "Are Some Forecasters Really Better Than Others?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(4), pages 715-732, 06.
  4. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Thorsrud, Leif Anders, 2017. "Forecasting GDP with global components: This time is different," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 153-173.
  5. Ippei Fujiwara & Yasuo Hirose, 2014. "Indeterminacy and Forecastability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(1), pages 243-251, 02.
  6. Elena Angelini & Gonzalo Camba‐Mendez & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Gerhard Rünstler, 2011. "Short‐term forecasts of euro area GDP growth," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 14, pages 25-44, 02.
  7. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2012. "Generalized Shrinkage Methods for Forecasting Using Many Predictors," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 481-493, June.
  8. Antonello D'Agostino & Luca Gambetti & Domenico Giannone, 2013. "Macroeconomic forecasting and structural change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 82-101, 01.
  9. Audrone Jakaitiene & Stephane Dees, 2012. "Forecasting the World Economy in the Short Term," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 331-350, 03.
  10. Banerjee, Anindya & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Masten, Igor, 2014. "Forecasting with factor-augmented error correction models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 589-612.
  11. Kuzin, Vladimir N. & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Schumacher, Christian, 2009. "Pooling versus model selection for nowcasting with many predictors: an application to German GDP," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,03, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  12. Surico, Paolo & Benati, Luca, 2007. "Evolving U.S. monetary policy and the decline of inflation predictability," Working Paper Series 824, European Central Bank.
  13. Eickmeier, Sandra & Lemke, Wolfgang & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2011. "Classical time-varying FAVAR models - estimation, forecasting and structural analysis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,04, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  14. Gupta, Rangan & Kabundi, Alain, 2011. "A large factor model for forecasting macroeconomic variables in South Africa," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1076-1088, October.
  15. P. Byrne, Joseph & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-71, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  16. Knüppel, Malte & Schultefrankenfeld, Guido, 2013. "The Empirical (Ir)Relevance of the Interest Rate Assumption for Central Bank Forecasts," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 80042, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  17. Antonello D’ Agostino & Domenico Giannone, 2012. "Comparing Alternative Predictors Based on Large‐Panel Factor Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(2), pages 306-326, 04.
  18. Daniel L. Thornton, 2012. "How did we get to inflation targeting and where do we need to go to now? a perspective from the U.S. experience," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 65-81.
  19. Antonello D'Agostino & Karl Whelan, 2008. "Federal Reserve Information During the Great Moderation," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(2-3), pages 609-620, 04-05.
  20. Lombardi, Marco J. & Godbout, Claudia, 2012. "Short-term forecasting of the Japanese economy using factor models," Working Paper Series 1428, European Central Bank.
  21. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Momferatou, Daphne & Onorante, Luca, 2014. "Short-term inflation projections: A Bayesian vector autoregressive approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 635-644.
  22. Ásgeir Daníelsson, 2008. "The great moderation Icelandic style," Economics wp38, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
  23. Tatevik Sekhposyan & Barbara Rossi, 2008. "Has modelsí forecasting performance for US output growth and inflation changed over time, and when?," Working Papers 09-02, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  24. Gamber, Edward N. & Smith, Julie K. & McNamara, Dylan C., 2014. "Where is the Fed in the distribution of forecasters?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 296-312.
  25. Rochelle M. Edge & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2010. "A comparison of forecast performance between Federal Reserve staff forecasts, simple reduced-form models, and a DSGE model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 720-754.
  26. Drechsel, Katja & Scheufele, Rolf, 2012. "The performance of short-term forecasts of the German economy before and during the 2008/2009 recession," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 428-445.
  27. Matteo Ciccarelli & Benoît Mojon, 2010. "Global Inflation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(3), pages 524-535, August.
  28. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 5-29.
  29. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Igor Masten, 2010. "Forecasting with Factor-augmented Error Correction," Discussion Papers 09-06r, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  30. Tatevik Sekhposyan & Barbara Rossi, 2009. "Has Economic Modelsí Forecasting Performance for US Output Growth and Inflation Changed Over Time, and When?," Working Papers 09-06, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  31. Paul Hubert, 2015. "Revisiting the Greenbook’s relative forecasting performance," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 151-179.
  32. Barhoumi, K. & Rünstler, G. & Cristadoro, R. & Den Reijer, A. & Jakaitiene, A. & Jelonek, P. & Rua, A. & Ruth, K. & Benk, S. & Van Nieuwenhuyze, C., 2008. "Short-term forecasting of GDP using large monthly datasets: a pseudo real-time forecast evaluation exercise," Working papers 215, Banque de France.
  33. Gamber, Edward N. & Smith, Julie K., 2009. "Are the Fed's inflation forecasts still superior to the private sector's?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 240-251, June.
  34. Jari Hännikäinen, 2016. "When does the yield curve contain predictive power? Evidence from a data-rich environment," Working Papers 1603, University of Tampere, School of Management, Economics.
  35. Lombardi, Marco J. & Maier, Philipp, 2011. "Forecasting economic growth in the euro area during the Great Moderation and the Great Recession," Working Paper Series 1379, European Central Bank.
  36. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2009. "Time-varying yield curve dynamics and monetary policy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 895-913.
  37. Groen, Jan J.J. & Kapetanios, George, 2016. "Revisiting useful approaches to data-rich macroeconomic forecasting," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 221-239.
  38. De Mol, Christine & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2008. "Forecasting using a large number of predictors: Is Bayesian shrinkage a valid alternative to principal components?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 318-328, October.
  39. Berger, Helge & Harjes, Thomas & Stavrev, Emil, 2008. "The ECB's monetary analysis revisited," Discussion Papers 2008/14, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
  40. Paul Hubert, 2009. "An Empirical Review of Federal Reserve’s Informational Advantage," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2009-03, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  41. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2008. "Evolving international inflation dynamics: evidence from a time-varying dynamic factor model," Bank of England working papers 341, Bank of England.
  42. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Primiceri, Giorgio E, 2016. "Priors for the Long Run," CEPR Discussion Papers 11261, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  43. Luca Fanelli & Marco M. Sorge, 2015. "Indeterminacy, Misspecification and Forecastability: Good Luck in Bad Policy?," CSEF Working Papers 402, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  44. Castelnuovo, Efrem & Greco, Luciano & Raggi, Davide, 2008. "Estimating regime-switching Taylor rules with trend inflation," Research Discussion Papers 20/2008, Bank of Finland.
  45. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Schumacher, Christian, 2007. "Factor-MIDAS for now- and forecasting with ragged-edge data: a model comparison for German GDP," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,34, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  46. Vugar Ahmadov & Shaig Adigozalov & Salman Huseynov & Fuad Mammadov & Vugar Rahimov, 2016. "Forecasting inflation in post-oil boom years: A case for non-linear models?," Working Papers 1601, Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic.
  47. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Forecasting of small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  48. Domenico Giannone & Michèle Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2012. "Money, Credit, Monetary Policy and the Business Cycle in the Euro Area," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2012-008, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  49. Chanont Banternghansa & Michael W. McCracken, 2011. "Real-time forecast averaging with ALFRED," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 49-66.
  50. Schumacher, Christian & Breitung, Jörg, 2008. "Real-time forecasting of German GDP based on a large factor model with monthly and quarterly data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 386-398.
  51. Laurent Ferrara & Dominique Guégan & Patrick Rakotomarolahy, 2010. "GDP nowcasting with ragged-edge data: a semi-parametric modeling," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 186-199.
  52. Rochelle M. Edge & Refet S. Gurkaynak, 2010. "How Useful Are Estimated DSGE Model Forecasts for Central Bankers?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(2 (Fall)), pages 209-259.
  53. Liebermann, Joelle, 2010. "Real-time nowcasting of GDP: Factor model versus professional forecasters," MPRA Paper 28819, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  54. Fornari, Fabio & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2010. "Predicting recession probabilities with financial variables over multiple horizons," Working Paper Series 1255, European Central Bank.
  55. Sweder van Wijnbergen & Tim Willems, 2013. "Imperfect information, lagged labour adjustment, and the Great Moderation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 65(2), pages 219-239, April.
  56. Scharnagl, Michael & Schumacher, Christian, 2007. "Reconsidering the role of monetary indicators for euro area inflation from a Bayesian perspective using group inclusion probabilities," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  57. Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2008. "Factor-MIDAS for Now- and Forecasting with Ragged-Edge Data: A Model Comparison for German GDP1," Working Papers 333, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  58. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/3pot7260lh88lrfhrhvs85lh2f is not listed on IDEAS
  59. Barhoumi, K. & Rünstler, G. & Cristadoro, R. & Den Reijer, A. & Jakaitiene, A. & Jelonek, P. & Rua, A. & Ruth, K. & Benk, S. & Van Nieuwenhuyze, C., 2008. "Short-term forecasting of GDP using large monthly datasets: a pseudo real-time forecast evaluation exercise," Working papers 215, Banque de France.
  60. P. Byrne, Joseph & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-71, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  61. Daniel L. Thornton, 2009. "How did we get to inflation targeting and where do we go now? a perspective from the U.S. experience," Working Papers 2009-038, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  62. Liebermann, Joelle, 2012. "Real-time forecasting in a data-rich environment," MPRA Paper 39452, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  63. Manzan, Sebastiano & Zerom, Dawit, 2013. "Are macroeconomic variables useful for forecasting the distribution of U.S. inflation?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 469-478.
  64. Rossi, Barbara & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2010. "Have economic models' forecasting performance for US output growth and inflation changed over time, and when?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 808-835, October.
  65. Kim Chang-Jin & Kim Yunmi, 2008. "Is the Backward-Looking Component Important in a New Keynesian Phillips Curve?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 1-20, September.
  66. Marco J. Lombardi & Philipp Maier, 2010. "‘Lean’ versus ‘Rich’ Data Sets: Forecasting during the Great Moderation and the Great Recession," Staff Working Papers 10-37, Bank of Canada.
  67. David C. Wheelock & Mark E. Wohar, 2009. "Can the term spread predict output growth and recessions? a survey of the literature," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 419-440.
  68. Daniel L. Thornton & Giorgio Valente, 2010. "Predicting bond excess returns with forward rates: an asset-allocation perspective," Working Papers 2010-034, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  69. repec:ecb:ecbwps:20111428 is not listed on IDEAS
  70. Harun Özkan & M. Yazgan, 2015. "Is forecasting inflation easier under inflation targeting?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 609-626, March.
  71. Sargent, Thomas & Surico, Paolo, 2008. "Monetary policies and low-frequency manifestations of the quantity theory," Discussion Papers 26, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
  72. Andrea Nobili, 2009. "Composite indicators for monetary analysis," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 713, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  73. Cecilia Frale & David Veredas, 2008. "A Monthly Volatility Index for the US Economy," Working Papers ECARES 2008-008, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
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