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The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Mary C. Daly, 2023. "Forward-Looking Policy in a Real-Time World," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2023(08), pages 1-8, March.
  2. Bucci, Alberto, 2023. "Can a negative population growth rate sustain a positive economic growth rate in the long run?," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 17-28.
  3. Sascha O. Becker & Jared Rubin & Ludger Woessmann, 2024. "Religion and Growth," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1094-1142, September.
  4. Schlenker, Oliver, 2024. "The deadly consequences of labor scarcity: Evidence from hospitals," Working Papers 42, University of Konstanz, Cluster of Excellence "The Politics of Inequality. Perceptions, Participation and Policies".
  5. Gustafsson, Johan E. & Spears, Dean & Zuber, Stéphane, 2023. "Utilitarianism Is Implied by Social and Individual Dominance," IZA Discussion Papers 16561, IZA Network @ LISER.
  6. Matthias Doepke & Anne Hannusch & Fabian Kindermann & Michèle Tertilt, 2022. "The Economics of Fertility: A New Era," NBER Working Papers 29948, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Olabisi, Michael & Olabisi, Laura Schmitt & Richardson, Robert B., 2025. "Renewable energy finance in Africa as a global leverage point," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
  8. Bucci, Alberto & Prettner, Klaus, 2025. "Endogenous Depopulation and Economic Growth," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 377, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
  9. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Ventura, Gustavo & Yao, Wen, 2025. "The wealth of working nations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
  10. Jagjit S. Chadha & Issam Samiri, 2022. "Macroeconomic Perspectives on Productivity," Working Papers 030, The Productivity Institute.
  11. Theodore P. Lianos & Anastasia Pseiridis & Nicholas Tsounis, 2023. "Declining population and GDP growth," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-9, December.
  12. Hellwagner, Timon & Weber, Enzo, 2021. "Labour Market Adjustments to Population Decline," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242455, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  13. Rubén Domínguez-Díaz & Samuel Hurtado & Carolina Menéndez, 2025. "Fiscal stimulus and productivity: simulating the NGEU program with an endogenous growth model," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 191-228, March.
  14. Sheng Zhong & Mingting Shi & Qiang Xiao, 2022. "Spatiotemporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Population Growth Transition in China during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-17, November.
  15. Gries, Thomas & Naudé, Wim, 2025. "Economics for a Safe Operating Space: A Green-Growth-Degrowth Model," IZA Discussion Papers 18110, IZA Network @ LISER.
  16. Madsen, Jakob B., 2025. "The aging society: Is growth reverting to pre-industrial levels in the 21st century?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
  17. Hiroaki Sasaki & Taichi Hori & Rokuhisa Hasegawa & Shigehiro Tajiri & Kaito Nakamura, 2025. "Growth with human capital accumulation and declining population: an augmented Solow model approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 45(1), pages 63-72.
  18. Naudé, Wim, 2026. "To Infinity and Beyond! Anthropocentric Stories of Innovation and Growth," IZA Discussion Papers 18408, IZA Network @ LISER.
  19. Wookun Kim, 2020. "Baby Bonus, Fertility, and Missing Women," Departmental Working Papers 2011, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics.
  20. Øystein Kravdal, 2025. "Should we be concerned about low fertility? A discussion of six possible arguments," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 53(14), pages 373-418.
  21. Joan E. Madia & Francesco Moscone & Asieh Hosseini Tabaghdehi & Jong-Chol An & Changkeun Lee, 2024. "Fertility Decline and Tax Revenues in South Korea," FBK-IRVAPP Working Papers 2024-02, Research Institute for the Evaluation of Public Policies (IRVAPP), Bruno Kessler Foundation.
  22. Gordon B. Dahl & Runjing Lu & William Mullins, 2022. "Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 473-490, December.
  23. Kushwaha, Rudra Narayan & Ghosh, Taniya, 2025. "How do labor supply dynamics influence patent protection policies?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
  24. Bucci, Alberto & Carbonari, Lorenzo & Trivin, Pedro & Trovato, Giovanni, 2025. "Human capital-based growth with depopulation and class-size effects: theory and empirics," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29, pages 1-1, January.
  25. Olympia Bover & Nezih Guner & Yuliya Kulikova & Alessandro Ruggieri & Carlos Sanz, 2025. "Family-Friendly Policies and Fertility: What Firms Have to Do With It?," Working Papers wp2025_2517, CEMFI.
  26. Asquith, Brian J. & Mast, Evan, 2025. "Birth dearth and local population decline," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
  27. Trang Hoang, 2022. "Fiscal competition and state pension reforms," Public Budgeting & Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(3), pages 41-70, September.
  28. Sasaki, Hiroaki & Hori, Taichi & Hasegawa, Rokuhisa & Tajiri, Shigehiro & Nakamura, Kaito, 2023. "Mankiw-Romer-Weil Model with Declining Population: A Note," MPRA Paper 119457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  29. von Muschwitz, Florian, 2025. "Population aging, inequality and public policy," VfS Annual Conference 2025 (Cologne): Revival of Industrial Policy 325362, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  30. Hiroshi Inokuma & Juan M. Sanchez, 2023. "From Population Growth to TFP Growth," Working Papers 2023-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 01 Sep 2025.
  31. Guillaume Blanc & Romain Wacziarg, 2025. "Malthusian Migrations," NBER Working Papers 33542, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  32. repec:osf:socarx:yjveb_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
  33. Chin-Peng Chu & Kuo-Chun Yeh, 2021. "Demographic Transition for Economic Development in Taipei,China: Literature and Policy Implications," ADBI Working Papers 1222, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  34. Paolo Giovanni Piacquadio, 2025. "Intergenerational Population Ethics," CESifo Working Paper Series 12106, CESifo.
  35. Strauss, Ilan & Yang, Jangho, 2021. "Slowing investment rates in developing economies: Evidence from a Bayesian hierarchical model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
  36. Piano, Clara E., 2025. "Mind the fertility gap: Why people stopped having babies and how economic freedom can help," IEA Discussion Papers 143, Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA).
  37. Rainer Kotschy & David E. Bloom & Andrew J. Scott & Rainer Franz Kotschy, 2024. "On the Limits of Chronological Age," CESifo Working Paper Series 11451, CESifo.
  38. Gerlagh, Reyer, 2022. "Climate, Technology, Family Size; on the Crossroad between Two Ultimate Externalities," Other publications TiSEM b6d5b02f-4624-46fd-836a-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  39. Ren, Xianling & Qiao, Jinbao & Ji, Jianyue, 2025. "Population aging and intensified economic downside risk: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
  40. Wen-Chin Chen & An-Xuan Ngo & Hui-Pin Chang, 2024. "Enhancing Decision-Making Processes in the Complex Landscape of the Taiwanese Electronics Manufacturing Industry through a Fuzzy MCDM Approach," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-29, July.
  41. Fei Yang & Zhenlin Zhang, 2025. "Economic Drivers of China's Declining Fertility: The Role of Digital Inclusive Finance and Household Debt," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(3), pages 675-696, April.
  42. Justin-Damien Guénette & Lin Shao, 2025. "Assessing the Impact of Demographic Composition on Productivity," Discussion Papers 2025-03, Bank of Canada.
  43. Sua Kang & Wookun Kim & Kanghyock Koh, 2025. "Childbirth, Baby Bonus, and Maternal Mental Health," CESifo Working Paper Series 11986, CESifo.
  44. Naudé, Wim & Nagler, Paula, 2022. "The Ossified Economy: The Case of Germany, 1870-2020," IZA Discussion Papers 15607, IZA Network @ LISER.
  45. Gerlagh, Reyer, 2022. "Climate, Technology, Family Size; on the Crossroad between Two Ultimate Externalities," Discussion Paper 2022-027, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  46. Wu, Feifei & Xu, Peipei & Gao, Bo & Ma, Jing, 2024. "Export contraction and input switching in an aging China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
  47. Sasaki, Hiroaki, 2023. "Growth with automation capital and declining population," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
  48. Hiroaki Sasaki & Noriki Fukatani & Daisuke Imai & Yusuke Kamanaka, 2025. "Sustainable Economic Growth in an Economy With Exhaustible Resources and a Declining Population Under the Balance‐of‐Payments Constraint," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 77(3), pages 328-345, July.
  49. Lee, Jangyoun & Suh, Hyunduk, 2025. "Long-run effects of super low fertility on housing markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
  50. Ryoji Ohdoi, 2025. "International asymmetries in population aging and their consequences for the technology gap and global growth," Discussion Paper Series 302, School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University.
  51. Ichiroh DAITOH & Hiroaki SASAKI, 2023. "At the Right Time:Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans Model with Declining Population," Discussion papers e-23-002, Graduate School of Economics , Kyoto University.
  52. Kazuo Mino & Hiroaki Sasaki, 2021. "Long-Run Consequences of Population Decline in an Economy with Exhaustible Natural Resources," KIER Working Papers 1062, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
  53. Nicolo Maffei-Faccioli, 2020. "Identifying the Sources of the Slowdown in Growth: Demand vs. Supply," 2020 Papers pma2978, Job Market Papers.
  54. Trouvain, Florian, 2024. "Technology Adoption, Innovation, and Inequality in a Global World," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302377, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  55. Sasaki, Hiroaki & Mino, Kazuo, 2024. "Effects of exhaustible resources and declining population on economic growth with Hotelling’s rule," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
  56. Sasaki, Hiroaki & Shimizu, Kenji & Ishihara, Yousuke, 2025. "Automation, Economic Growth, and Wage Inequality: A Comment on Afonso (2024)," MPRA Paper 124420, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  57. Boikos, Spyridon & Bucci, Alberto & Sequeira, Tiago Neves, 2023. "May human capital rescue the Empty Planet?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
  58. Thi Kim Cuong Pham & Ngoc-Sang Pham & Cuong Le Van & Tin Nguyen-Trong, 2025. "Endogenous Innovation in a Growth Model à la Solow," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-05388671, HAL.
  59. Tsangaris, Spyridon & Xepapadeas, Anastasios & Yannacopoulos, Athanasios N. & Salvati, Luca, 2024. "Spatial externalities, R&D spillovers, and endogenous technological change," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
  60. Guillaume Blanc and Romain Wacziarg, 2026. "Malthusian Migrations," Discussion Papers dp26-05, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
  61. Ilan Noy & Shakked Noy, 2022. "The Short-Termism of 'Hard' Economics," CESifo Working Paper Series 10160, CESifo.
  62. Nicolò Maffei‐Faccioli, 2025. "Identifying the Sources of the Slowdown in Growth: Demand Versus Supply," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(2), pages 181-194, March.
  63. Daniele Angelini, 2023. "Aging Population and Technology Adoption," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2023-01, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
  64. Berna Serener & Dervis Kirikkaleli & Kwaku Addai, 2022. "Patents on Environmental Technologies, Financial Development, and Environmental Degradation in Sweden: Evidence from Novel Fourier-Based Approaches," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-19, December.
  65. Almeida, Derick & Naudé, Wim & Sequeira, Tiago Neves, 2024. "Artificial Intelligence and the Discovery of New Ideas: Is an Economic Growth Explosion Imminent?," IZA Discussion Papers 16766, IZA Network @ LISER.
  66. Rannveig Hart & Janna Bergsvik & Agnes Fauske & Wookun Kim, 2023. "Causal Analysis of Policy Effects on Fertility," Departmental Working Papers 2309, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics.
  67. Mino, Kazuo & Sasaki, Hiroaki, 2023. "Long-run consequences of population decline in an economy with exhaustible resources," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
  68. Nezih Guner & Ezgi Kaya & Virginia Sánchez‐Marcos, 2024. "Labor Market Institutions And Fertility," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 65(3), pages 1551-1587, August.
  69. Mazzoni, Leonardo & Naudé, Wim & Innocenti, Niccolò, 2025. "The myth of entrepreneurship as a tool: Reorienting business venturing as a goal in itself in a post-growth society," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
  70. Hao Cheng, 2025. "External input and internal generation: the Chinese experience of how urban retired teachers maximize support for impoverished rural schools," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.
  71. Rossi,Federico & Michael Weber, 2024. "The Accumulation and Utilization of Human Capital over the Development Spectrum," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10891, The World Bank.
  72. Wim Naudé, 2022. "From the entrepreneurial to the ossified economy," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 46(1), pages 105-131.
  73. Gomes Orlando, 2024. "Economic Growth in the Age of Ubiquitous Threats: How Global Risks are Reshaping Growth Theory," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 1-15, January.
  74. Ngoc-Sang Pham, 2023. "Some Lectures on Macroeconomics," Working Papers hal-04366349, HAL.
  75. Strulik, Holger, 2024. "Long-run economic growth despite population decline," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
  76. DENG, Yongheng & INOUE, Tomoo & NISHIMURA, Kiyohiko & SHIMIZU, Chihiro, 2026. "Aging and the Price Level : Irreversible Capital, Demographic Transitions, and the Shifting Phillips Curve," RCESR Discussion Paper Series DP26-3, Research Center for Economic and Social Risks, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  77. Naudé, Wim, 2023. "Melancholy Hues: The Futility of Green Growth and Degrowth, and the Inevitability of Societal Collapse," IZA Discussion Papers 16139, IZA Network @ LISER.
  78. Nicolò Maffei-Faccioli, 2021. "Identifying the sources of the slowdown in growth: Demand vs. supply," Working Paper 2021/9, Norges Bank.
  79. Backhaus, Teresa, 2025. "Training in late careers — A structural approach," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
  80. Maurice Obstfeld, 2025. "Natural and Neutral Real Interest Rates: Past and Future," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 73(2), pages 339-392, June.
  81. Mark Setterfield, 2023. "Post-Keynesian growth theory and the supply side: a feminist-structuralist approach," Working Papers 2302, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
  82. Naudé, Wim, 2023. "We Already Live in a Degrowth World, and We Do Not like It," IZA Discussion Papers 16191, IZA Network @ LISER.
  83. Li, Jie & Zhao, Yaohui & Bao, Yangming, 2025. "Demographic transitions and global sourcing: Firm-level evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
  84. Daisuke MIYAKAWA & Koki OIKAWA & Kozo UEDA, 2025. "Population Aging and Business Successions: A Macroeconomic Perspective," Discussion papers 25096, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  85. Clara E. Piano, 2022. "The family and the state: a public choice perspective," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 35(3), pages 383-405, September.
  86. Gerlagh, Reyer, 2023. "Climate, technology, family size; on the crossroad between two ultimate externalities," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
  87. Madia, Joan E. & Moscone, Francesco & Tabaghdehi, Asieh Hosseini & An, Jong-Chol & Lee, Changkeun, 2025. "Fertility decline and tax revenues in South Korea," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2).
  88. Lukas Mahler & Michéle Tertilt & Minchul Yum, 2025. "Policy Concerns in an Era of Low Fertility: The Role of Social Comparisons and Intensive Parenting," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2025_705, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
  89. Zhang, Wenkang & Wu, Jing, 2025. "Endogenous growth and data heterogeneity in data economics," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
  90. Lee, Jong-Wha & Song, Eunbi, 2025. "Demographic change and long-term economic growth path in Asia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
  91. Chen, Chien-Hsun, 2023. "Taiwan’s Rapidly Aging Population: A Crisis in the Making?," MPRA Paper 116543, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  92. Rudra Narayan Kushwaha & Taniya Ghosh, 2023. "The Effects of population growth on patents and economic growth dynamics," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2023-05, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
  93. Hanna Wang, 2025. "Fertility and Family Leave Policies in Germany: Optimal Policy Design in a Dynamic Framework," Working Papers 1507, Barcelona School of Economics.
  94. David E. Bloom & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2024. "Fertility in High-Income Countries: Trends, Patterns, Determinants, and Consequences," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 16(1), pages 159-184, August.
  95. Holger Strulik, 2024. "Higher education and the income-fertility nexus," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 37(1), pages 1-13, March.
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