IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedlwp/95866.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

From Population Growth to TFP Growth

Author

Abstract

A slowdown in population growth causes a decline in business dynamism by increasing the share of old businesses. But how does it affect productivity growth? We answer this question by extending a standard business dynamics model to include endogenous productivity growth. Theoretically, the growth rate of the size of surviving old businesses is a “sufficient statistic" for determining the direction and magnitude of the impact of population growth on productivity growth. Quantitatively, this effect is significant across balanced growth paths for the United States and Japan. TFP growth in the United States falls by 0.3 percentage points because of the slowing in population growth between 1970 and 2060. The same driving force produces a significantly bigger response in Japan. Despite the significant long-run effect, we discover that changes in TFP growth are slow in reaction to population growth changes due to two short-run counterbalancing factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Hiroshi Inokuma & Juan M. Sanchez, 2023. "From Population Growth to TFP Growth," Working Papers 2023-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 09 Jun 2024.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:95866
    DOI: 10.20955/wp.2023.006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://s3.amazonaws.com/real.stlouisfed.org/wp/2023/2023-006.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.20955/wp.2023.006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Caselli, Francesco, 2005. "Accounting for Cross-Country Income Differences," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 9, pages 679-741, Elsevier.
    2. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 323-351, March.
    3. Robert Shimer, 2001. "The Impact of Young Workers on the Aggregate Labor Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(3), pages 969-1007.
    4. Niklas Engbom, 2018. "Firm and Worker Dynamics in an Aging Labor Market," 2018 Meeting Papers 1009, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Michael Peters & Conor Walsh, 2021. "Population Growth and Firm Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 29424, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Fatih Karahan & Benjamin Pugsley & Ayşegül Şahin, 2024. "Demographic Origins of the Start-up Deficit," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(7), pages 1986-2023, July.
    7. Hugo Hopenhayn & Julian Neira & Rish Singhania, 2022. "From Population Growth to Firm Demographics: Implications for Concentration, Entrepreneurship and the Labor Share," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(4), pages 1879-1914, July.
    8. Peter J. Klenow & Huiyu Li, 2020. "Innovative Growth Accounting," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2020, volume 35, pages 245-295, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Charles I. Jones, 2022. "The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(11), pages 3489-3527, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hiroshi Inokuma & Juan M. Sánchez, 2024. "From Population Growth to TFP Growth," IMES Discussion Paper Series 24-E-09, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    2. Maarten de Ridder, 2022. "Market power and innovation in the intangible economy," POID Working Papers 064, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    3. Trouvain, Florian, 2024. "Technology Adoption, Innovation, and Inequality in a Global World," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302377, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Burchardi, Konrad & Terry, Stephen & Chaney, Thomas & Tarquinio, Lisa & Hassan, Tarek, 2020. "Immigration, Innovation, and Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 14719, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. De Ridder, Maarten, 2024. "Market power and innovation in the intangible economy," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 120285, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Michael J. Böhm & Christian Siegel, 2021. "Make Yourselves Scarce: The Effect Of Demographic Change On The Relative Wages And Employment Rates Of Experienced Workers," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(4), pages 1537-1568, November.
    7. Wu, Feifei & Xu, Peipei & Gao, Bo & Ma, Jing, 2024. "Export contraction and input switching in an aging China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    8. Bianca Barbaro & Giorgio Massari & Patrizio Tirelli, 2022. "Who killed business dynamism in the U.S.?," Working Papers 494, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2022.
    9. Paula Bustos & Juan Manuel Castro Vincenzi & Joan Monras & Jacopo Ponticelli, 2019. "Structural Transformation, Industrial Specialization, and Endogenous Growth," Working Papers wp2019_1906, CEMFI.
    10. Satyajit Chatterjee & Burcu Eyigungor, 2023. "The Firm Size-Leverage Relationship and Its Implications for Entry and Business Concentration," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 48, pages 132-157, April.
    11. Kerekes, Monika, 2007. "Analyzing patterns of economic growth: a production frontier approach," Discussion Papers 2007/15, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    12. Aleksandra Parteka & Joanna Wolszczak-Derlacz, 2013. "The Impact of Trade Integration with the European Union on Productivity in a Posttransition Economy: The Case of Polish Manufacturing Sectors," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(2), pages 84-104, March.
    13. Danny Givon, 2006. "Factor Replacement versus Factor Substitution, Mechanization and Asymptotic Harrod Neutrality," DEGIT Conference Papers c011_028, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    14. Ponticelli, Jacopo & Bustos, Paula & Castro-Vincenzi, Juan & Monras, Joan, 2018. "Industrialization without Innovation," CEPR Discussion Papers 13379, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Dalgaard, Carl-Johan & Strulik, Holger, 2013. "The history augmented Solow model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 134-149.
    16. Apoorv Gupta & Jacopo Ponticelli & Andrea Tesei, 2020. "Language Barriers, Technology Adoption and Productivity: Evidence from Agriculture in India," NBER Working Papers 27192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Massimo Del Gatto & Adriana Di Liberto & Carmelo Petraglia, 2011. "Measuring Productivity," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 952-1008, December.
    18. Clara E. Piano, 2022. "The family and the state: a public choice perspective," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 35(3), pages 383-405, September.
    19. Uwe Sunde & Thomas Vischer, 2015. "Human Capital and Growth: Specification Matters," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 82(326), pages 368-390, April.
    20. Erik Canton & Bert Minne & Ate Nieuwenhuis & Bert Smid & Marc van der Steeg, 2005. "Human capital, R&D, and competition in macroeconomic analysis," CPB Document 91.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    population growth; economic growth; firms dynamics; demographics; productivity; innovation; total factor productivity (TFP); Japan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:95866. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anna Oates (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbslus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.