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Birth Dearth and Local Population Decline

Author

Listed:
  • Brian J. Asquith

    (W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research)

  • Evan Mast

    (University of Notre Dame)

Abstract

Local population decline has spread rapidly since 1970, with half of counties losing population between 2010 and 2020. The workhorse economic models point to net out-migration, likely driven by changing local economies and amenities, as the cause of this trend. However, we show that the share of counties with high net out-migration has not increased. Instead, falling fertility has caused migration rates that used to generate growth to instead result in decline. When we simulate county populations from 1970 to the present holding fertility at its initial level, only 10 percent of counties decline during the 2010s.

Suggested Citation

  • Brian J. Asquith & Evan Mast, 2024. "Birth Dearth and Local Population Decline," Upjohn Working Papers 24-406, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:upj:weupjo:24-406
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    Cited by:

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    2. Daniel L. Millimet & Travis Whitacre, 2025. "Partisan mortality cycles," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 38(4), pages 1-49, December.
    3. Jeffrey Clemens, 2026. "Implications of Low Fertility and Declining Populations for the Operations of US State and Local Governments," Working Papers clemens_2026, The Aspen Institute Economic Strategy Group.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • N92 - Economic History - - Regional and Urban History - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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