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Endogenous migration restrictions and population aging in China

Author

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  • Chen, Zhu
  • Zhang, Jipeng
  • Zhou, Kang

Abstract

This paper investigates how local governments in China respond to demographic shifts by reducing migration restrictions through Hukou reform. We construct a novel measure of reform intensity by combining a data-driven approach with textual analysis of official policy documents. By quantifying the share of pre-reform migrants who would qualify for local urban Hukou under the most recent settlement criteria, our measure captures the endogenous constraints embedded in local settlement policies. Using this measure, we estimate the impact of local population aging on Hukou policy changes. We find that cities with higher aging levels are more likely to lower thresholds for migrant settlement, with stronger effects in prefectures facing lower fertility rates. Mechanism analysis further highlights the role of population aging as a driver of labor market deregulation and urban development.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Zhu & Zhang, Jipeng & Zhou, Kang, 2026. "Endogenous migration restrictions and population aging in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:179:y:2026:i:c:s0304387825002251
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103674
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • R28 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Government Policy

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