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Macroeconomic Consequences of Population Aging in the United States: Overview of a National Academy Report

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  • Ronald D. Lee

Abstract

The US population will age rapidly for several decades and then more slowly, with less aging than most rich nations. Health of the elderly has greatly improved, but disability stagnated after 2000. Retirement age reversed its decline in the mid-1990s and health status leaves ample room for increased elder labor supply. Many older people have inadequate retirement savings and face additional risks including uncertainty about both public and private pensions and health insurance. Population aging may cause a small decline in rates of return. The main problem is the impact of population aging on public programs for the elderly.

Suggested Citation

  • Ronald D. Lee, 2014. "Macroeconomic Consequences of Population Aging in the United States: Overview of a National Academy Report," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 234-239, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:104:y:2014:i:5:p:234-39
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.104.5.234
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Amitabh Chandra & Jonathan Holmes & Jonathan Skinner, 2013. "Is This Time Different? The Slowdown in Healthcare Spending," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 44(2 (Fall)), pages 261-323.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Brian K. & Jalal, Hawre & Hashimoto, Hideki & Suen, Sze-chuan & Eggleston, Karen & Hurley, Michael & Schoemaker, Lena & Bhattacharya, Jay, 2016. "Forecasting trends in disability in a super-aging society: Adapting the Future Elderly Model to Japan," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 8(C), pages 42-51.
    2. Heer, Burkhard & Polito, Vito & Wickens, Michael R., 2020. "Population aging, social security and fiscal limits," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    3. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Hunkler, Christian & Weiss, Matthias, 2021. "Big data at work: Age and labor productivity in the service sector," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 19(C).
    4. Zohra Ansari-Thomas, 2024. "Sandwich Caregiving and Paid Work: Differences by Caregiving Intensity and Women’s Life Stage," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 43(1), pages 1-46, February.
    5. Motavasseli, Ali, 2016. "Essays in environmental policy and household economics," Other publications TiSEM b32e287e-169b-4e89-9878-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. Nguyen, Cuong Viet & Nguyen, Quynh Ngoc, 2023. "Disabilities and Care Needs among Older People: Evidence from Vietnam," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1244, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    7. Giles, John & Lei, Xiaoyan & Wang, Gewei & Wang, Yafeng & Zhao, Yaohui, 2023. "One country, two systems: evidence on retirement patterns in China," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(2), pages 188-210, April.
    8. Ademola Obafemi Young, 2018. "Economic Growth and Population Ageing in Nigeria: Innovation Accounting Techniques," Journal of Sustainable Development, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(4), pages 190-190, July.
    9. Terence C. Cheng & Jing Li & Rhema Vaithianathan, 2019. "Monthly spending dynamics of the elderly following a health shock: Evidence from Singapore," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 23-43, January.
    10. Docquier, Frédéric & Kone, Zovanga L. & Mattoo, Aaditya & Ozden, Caglar, 2019. "Labor market effects of demographic shifts and migration in OECD countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 297-324.
    11. Jung, Juergen & Tran, Chung & Chambers, Matthew, 2017. "Aging and health financing in the U.S.: A general equilibrium analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 428-462.
    12. Alonso-García, Jennifer & Devolder, Pierre, 2019. "Continuous time model for notional defined contribution pension schemes: Liquidity and solvency," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 57-76.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • I13 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Insurance, Public and Private
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • J32 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits; Retirement Plans; Private Pensions

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