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Labor Market Effects of Demographic Shifts and Migration in OECD Countries

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  • Docquier,Frederic
  • Kone,Zovanga Louis
  • Mattoo,Aaditya
  • Ozden,Caglar

Abstract

The labor force of each industrial country is being shaped by three forces: ageing, education and migration. Drawing on a new database for the OECD countries and a standard analytical framework, this paper focuses on the relative and aggregate effects of these three forces on wages across different skill and age groups over 2000 to 2010. The variation in the age and educational structure of the labor force emerges as the dominant influence on wage changes. The impact is uniform and egalitarian: in almost all countries, the changes in the age and skill structure favor the low-skilled and hurt the highly skilled across age groups. Immigration plays a relatively minor role, except in a handful of open countries, like Australia and Canada, where it accentuates the wage-equalizing impact of ageing and education. Emigration is the only inegalitarian influence, especially in Ireland and a few Eastern European countries which have seen significant outflows of high-skilled labor to Western European Union countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Docquier,Frederic & Kone,Zovanga Louis & Mattoo,Aaditya & Ozden,Caglar, 2018. "Labor Market Effects of Demographic Shifts and Migration in OECD Countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8676, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:8676
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    Cited by:

    1. Nada Nasir & Carri Hand & Suzanne Huot, 2022. "Examining Social Relationships among Older Muslim Immigrants Living in Canada: A Narrative Inquiry," Societies, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-16, April.
    2. Guillermo N. Murray-Tortarolo & Mario Martínez Salgado, 2021. "Drought as a driver of Mexico-US migration," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1-11, February.
    3. Rémi Odry, 2020. "Academic Convergence and Migration: the effect of the BolognaProcess on European Mobility," EconomiX Working Papers 2020-24, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    4. Frédéric Docquier & Bright Isaac Ikhenaode & Hendrik Scheewel, 2022. "Immigration, welfare, and inequality: How much does the labor market specification matter?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(5), pages 1315-1347, November.
    5. Akira Yakita, 2021. "Is tightening immigration policy good for workers in the receiving economy?," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 975-991, October.
    6. Ghodsi, Mahdi & Stehrer, Robert & Barišić, Antea, 2024. "Which migrant jobs are linked with the adoption of novel technologies, robotisation, and digitalisation?," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    7. Bettin, Giulia & Sacchi, Agnese, 2020. "Health spending in Italy: The impact of immigrants," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    8. Ghodsi, Mahdi & Stehrer, Robert & Barišić, Antea, 2024. "Assessing the impact of new technologies on wages and labour income shares," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    9. Ramón Sanguino & Nilgün Çağlarırmak Uslu & Pınar Karahan-Dursun & Caner Özdemir & Ascensión Barroso & María Isabel Sánchez-Hernández & Eftade O. Gaga, 2025. "Bridging the Education–Employment Gap in Europe: An AI-Driven Approach to Skill Matching," World, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-17, October.
    10. Robert Stehrer, 2024. "Neue Technologien und Löhne: Erste Analysen basierend auf österreichischen Mikrodaten," wiiw Research Reports in German language 27, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    11. Byambasuren Dorjnyambuu, 2025. "A Systematic Literature Review of Income Inequality in Central–Eastern European Countries," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 67(1), pages 1-49, March.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply

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