IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/119457.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Mankiw-Romer-Weil Model with Declining Population: A Note

Author

Listed:
  • Sasaki, Hiroaki
  • Hori, Taichi
  • Hasegawa, Rokuhisa
  • Tajiri, Shigehiro
  • Nakamura, Kaito

Abstract

This study examines how the long-run growth rate of per capita income is determined when population growth is negative. It uses the augmented Solow growth model as a tool for this investigation. The results reveal four distinct types of dynamics, depending on the parameter combinations. In all these dynamics, the long-run growth rate of per capita income remains positive. This finding implies that sustainable growth in per capita income is achievable, even in the context of negative population growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Sasaki, Hiroaki & Hori, Taichi & Hasegawa, Rokuhisa & Tajiri, Shigehiro & Nakamura, Kaito, 2023. "Mankiw-Romer-Weil Model with Declining Population: A Note," MPRA Paper 119457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:119457
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/119457/1/MPRA_paper_119457.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    2. Prettner, Klaus, 2019. "A Note On The Implications Of Automation For Economic Growth And The Labor Share," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(3), pages 1294-1301, April.
    3. Sasaki, Hiroaki & Hoshida, Keisuke, 2017. "The Effects Of Negative Population Growth: An Analysis Using A Semiendogenous R&D Growth Model," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(7), pages 1545-1560, October.
    4. Ichiroh Daitoh, 2020. "Rates of Population Decline in Solow and Semi-Endogenous Growth Models: Empirical Relevance and the Role of Child Rearing Cost," Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series 2020-004, Institute for Economics Studies, Keio University.
    5. Elgin, Ceyhun & Tumen, Semih, 2012. "Can sustained economic growth and declining population coexist?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1899-1908.
    6. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David Weil, 1990. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," Working Papers 1990-24, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    7. Charles I. Jones, 2022. "The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(11), pages 3489-3527, November.
    8. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    9. Sasaki, Hiroaki, 2023. "Growth with automation capital and declining population," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    10. Thomas Christiaans, 2011. "Semi-endogenous growth when population is decreasing," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(3), pages 2667-2673.
    11. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    12. Mino, Kazuo & Sasaki, Hiroaki, 2023. "Long-run consequences of population decline in an economy with exhaustible resources," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    13. Jones, Charles I, 1995. "R&D-Based Models of Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 759-784, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ichiroh DAITOH & Hiroaki SASAKI, 2023. "At the Right Time:Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans Model with Declining Population," Discussion papers e-23-002, Graduate School of Economics , Kyoto University.
    2. Bucci, Alberto, 2023. "Can a negative population growth rate sustain a positive economic growth rate in the long run?," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 17-28.
    3. Sasaki, Hiroaki & Fukatani, Noriki & Imai, Daisuke & Kamanaka, Yusuke, 2022. "Sustainable Economic Growth in an Economy with Exhaustible Resources and a Declining Population under the Balance-of-Payments Constraint," MPRA Paper 113559, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. B. Bhaskara Rao & Arusha Cooray, 2012. "How useful is growth literature for policies in the developing countries?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(6), pages 671-681, February.
    5. Adriana Di Liberto, 2007. "Convergence and Divergence in Neoclassical Growth Models with Human Capital," Economia politica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2, pages 289-322.
    6. Bloom, David E. et.al., 2013. "Economic impact of non-communicable disease in China and India: Estimates, projections and comparisons," Working Papers 300, Institute for Social and Economic Change, Bangalore.
    7. Daren, Conrad, 2007. "Education and Economic Growth: Is There a Link?," MPRA Paper 18176, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2009.
    8. Durlauf, Steven N. & Quah, Danny T., 1999. "The new empirics of economic growth," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 235-308, Elsevier.
    9. Bergheim, Stefan, 2007. "Pair-wise cointegration in long-run growth models," Research Notes 24, Deutsche Bank Research.
    10. Bloom, David E. & Cafiero-Fonseca, Elizabeth T. & McGovern, Mark E. & Prettner, Klaus & Stanciole, Anderson & Weiss, Jonathan & Bakkila, Samuel & Rosenberg, Larry, 2014. "The macroeconomic impact of non-communicable diseases in China and India: Estimates, projections, and comparisons," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 4(C), pages 100-111.
    11. Rao, B. Bhaskara & Vadlamannati, Krishna Chaitanya, 2011. "Globalization and growth in the low income African countries with the extreme bounds analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 795-805, May.
    12. Cem Ertur & Wilfried Koch, 2007. "Growth, technological interdependence and spatial externalities: theory and evidence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(6), pages 1033-1062.
    13. Klenow, Peter J. & Rodriguez-Clare, Andres, 2005. "Externalities and Growth," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 817-861, Elsevier.
    14. Alberto Bucci, 2009. "Scale Effects, Savings and Factor Shares in a Human Capital-based Growth Model with Physical Capital Accumulation," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(3), pages 291-307.
    15. Sasaki, Hiroaki & Mino, Kazuo, 2021. "Effects of Exhaustible Resources and Declining Population on Economic Growth with Hotelling's Rule," MPRA Paper 107787, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Papell, David H. & Prodan, Ruxandra, 2014. "Long run time series tests of constant steady-state growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 464-474.
    17. Stephen J. Turnovsky, 2000. "Growth in an open economy: some recent developments," Working Paper Research 05, National Bank of Belgium.
    18. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:15:y:2007:i:8:p:1-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Jones, C.I., 2016. "The Facts of Economic Growth," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 3-69, Elsevier.
    20. Long, N.V. & Wong, K.Y., 1996. "Endogenous Growth and International Trade: A Survey," Working Papers 96-07, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    21. Alejandro Díaz-Bautista, 2003. "Convergence And Economic Growth Considering Human Capital And R&D Spillovers," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 2(2), pages 127-143, Junio 200.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    augmented Solow model; human capital accumulation; declining population;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:119457. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.