IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/series/v16y2025i1d10.1007_s13209-025-00304-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fiscal stimulus and productivity: simulating the NGEU program with an endogenous growth model

Author

Listed:
  • Rubén Domínguez-Díaz

    (Banco de España)

  • Samuel Hurtado

    (Banco de España)

  • Carolina Menéndez

    (Banco de España)

Abstract

This paper introduces an endogenous growth general equilibrium model of firm dynamics and innovative investment for the Spanish economy that allows a better understanding of the medium-term effects of economic policies and shocks. We calibrate the model using both aggregate and firm-level data. We then use the model to assess the macroeconomic consequences of the different components of the Next Generation EU (NGEU) program, including public investment, private capital transfers, and innovative investment transfers. According to our baseline simulation, the NGEU funds significantly foster economic activity, with annual GDP growth increasing between 0.08 and 0.13 percentage points over the period of NGEU funds disbursement. In particular, we find that one of the key drivers of these output gains is the endogenous response of productivity to the fiscal stimulus. Among the different policy instruments, we find that innovation transfers deliver the largest effects on aggregate output, only matched by highly efficient public investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Rubén Domínguez-Díaz & Samuel Hurtado & Carolina Menéndez, 2025. "Fiscal stimulus and productivity: simulating the NGEU program with an endogenous growth model," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 191-228, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:series:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s13209-025-00304-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s13209-025-00304-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s13209-025-00304-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s13209-025-00304-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John G. Fernald & Charles I. Jones, 2014. "The Future of US Economic Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 44-49, May.
    2. Nicholas Bloom & Charles I. Jones & John Van Reenen & Michael Webb, 2020. "Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(4), pages 1104-1144, April.
    3. Christian Broda & David E. Weinstein, 2006. "Globalization and the Gains From Variety," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(2), pages 541-585.
    4. Schmitz, Tom, 2021. "Endogenous growth, firm heterogeneity and the long-run impact of financial crises," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    5. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 323-351, March.
    6. Oscar Jorda & Sanjay R. Singh & Alan M. Taylor, 2022. "Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(1), pages 166-175, March.
    7. Benjamin Moll, 2014. "Productivity Losses from Financial Frictions: Can Self-Financing Undo Capital Misallocation?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(10), pages 3186-3221, October.
    8. John Hassler & Per Krusell & Conny Olovsson, 2021. "Directed Technical Change as a Response to Natural Resource Scarcity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(11), pages 3039-3072.
    9. Charles I. Jones, 2002. "Sources of U.S. Economic Growth in a World of Ideas," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 220-239, March.
    10. Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2011. "When Is the Government Spending Multiplier Large?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 78-121.
    11. Stähler, Nikolai & Thomas, Carlos, 2012. "FiMod — A DSGE model for fiscal policy simulations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 239-261.
    12. Tor Jakob Klette & Samuel Kortum, 2004. "Innovating Firms and Aggregate Innovation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(5), pages 986-1018, October.
    13. Pfeiffer, Philipp & Varga, Janos & in ’t Veld, Jan, 2023. "Quantifying spillovers of coordinated investment stimulus in the EU," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(7), pages 1843-1865, October.
    14. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 71-102, October.
    15. Leeper, Eric M. & Walker, Todd B. & Yang, Shu-Chun S., 2010. "Government investment and fiscal stimulus," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(8), pages 1000-1012, November.
    16. Robert E. Lucas Jr., 2003. "Macroeconomic Priorities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 1-14, March.
    17. de Castro, Francisco & Hernández de Cos, Pablo, 2008. "The economic effects of fiscal policy: The case of Spain," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1005-1028, September.
    18. Baxter, Marianne & King, Robert G, 1993. "Fiscal Policy in General Equilibrium," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 315-334, June.
    19. Erzo G. J. Luttmer, 2007. "Selection, Growth, and the Size Distribution of Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(3), pages 1103-1144.
    20. Pedro R.D. Bom & Jenny E. Ligthart, 2014. "What Have We Learned From Three Decades Of Research On The Productivity Of Public Capital?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(5), pages 889-916, December.
    21. Charles I. Jones, 2022. "The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(11), pages 3489-3527, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gerlagh, Reyer, 2023. "Climate, technology, family size; on the crossroad between two ultimate externalities," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    2. Akcigit, Ufuk & Dinlersoz, Emin & Greenwood, Jeremy & Penciakova, Veronika, 2022. "Synergizing ventures," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    3. Gerlagh, Reyer, 2022. "Climate, Technology, Family Size; on the Crossroad between Two Ultimate Externalities," Other publications TiSEM b6d5b02f-4624-46fd-836a-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    4. Gerlagh, Reyer, 2022. "Climate, Technology, Family Size; on the Crossroad between Two Ultimate Externalities," Discussion Paper 2022-027, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    5. Anton I. Votinov & Victoria A. Gribova & Samvel S. Lazaryan, 2023. "Analysis of the Transmission Mechanism of Public Investments: The Case of the DSGE Model," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 5, pages 8-26, October.
    6. Giuseppe Berlingieri & Maarten De Ridder & Danial Lashkari & Davide Rigo, 2025. "Creative destruction through innovation bursts," CEP Discussion Papers dp2095, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    7. Laurent Cavenaile & Pau Roldan-Blanco, 2021. "Advertising, Innovation, and Economic Growth," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 251-303, July.
    8. Acemoglu, Daron & Cao, Dan, 2015. "Innovation by entrants and incumbents," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 255-294.
    9. Weshah Razzak, 2023. "Research Effort and Economic Growth," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 14(3), pages 2318-2340, September.
    10. Hinterlang, Natascha & Moyen, Stephane & Röhe, Oke & Stähler, Nikolai, 2023. "Gauging the effects of the German COVID-19 fiscal stimulus package," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    11. Garcia-Macia, Daniel & Korosteleva, Julia, 2025. "Tracing productivity growth channels in the UK," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(1).
    12. Samira Hasanzadeh & Hashmat Khan, 2019. "Sources of Canadian economic growth," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(1), pages 279-302, February.
    13. Andrew Atkeson & Ariel Tomás Burstein, 2010. "Innovation, Firm Dynamics, and International Trade," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(3), pages 433-484, June.
    14. Andrew Atkeson & Ariel Burstein, 2019. "Aggregate Implications of Innovation Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(6), pages 2625-2683.
    15. Valerie A. Ramey, 2020. "The Macroeconomic Consequences of Infrastructure Investment," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Analysis and Infrastructure Investment, pages 219-268, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Bhattarai, Keshab & Trzeciakiewicz, Dawid, 2017. "Macroeconomic impacts of fiscal policy shocks in the UK: A DSGE analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 321-338.
    17. Ufuk Akcigit & William R. Kerr, 2018. "Growth through Heterogeneous Innovations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(4), pages 1374-1443.
    18. Peter J. Klenow & Huiyu Li, 2020. "Innovative Growth Accounting," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2020, volume 35, pages 245-295, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Dean Scrimgeour, 2015. "Dynamic Scoring in a Romer‐Style Economy," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 81(3), pages 697-723, January.
    20. Christopher Laincz & Pietro Peretto, 2006. "Scale effects in endogenous growth theory: an error of aggregation not specification," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 263-288, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • O38 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Government Policy
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:series:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s13209-025-00304-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.