IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ris/adbiwp/1222.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Demographic Transition for Economic Development in Taipei,China: Literature and Policy Implications

Author

Listed:
  • Chu, Chin-Peng

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

  • Yeh, Kuo-Chun

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

Abstract

As an economy with a population of 23 million, Taipei,China is enjoying the demographic dividend of economic growth resulting from a shift in the population age structure, but an increasingly aged population could be bad for the economy. As an international comparison, its population is aging faster than that of most members of the Asian Development Bank and other advanced economies. Based on the literature, we evaluate the impact of aging on economic growth and volatility using relevant data and then concludes with the government policies relevant to the prospective aging problem. At the current stage, the situation is not as bad as expected. An aging workforce with positive productivity has no negative impact on economic growth. The old-age dependency ratio has a significantly negative effect on economic development, but appropriate foreign labor immigration and elderly long-term care policies can mitigate it. Higher education attainment still works to support economic growth in the long run. Besides, an increase in longevity first enhances and then erodes net foreign assets, and high old-age dependency ratios cause investments to respond strongly to technology shocks because individuals prefer to save more for retirement in aging societies. However, population aging has a minor influence on the dynamics of the macroeconomic variables. Nevertheless, the government should be cautious and allocate resources to help labor-intensive and low-skilled industries transform into more innovation-oriented and knowledge-intensive ones. Social welfare support must also become an important aspect of the social security framework.

Suggested Citation

  • Chu, Chin-Peng & Yeh, Kuo-Chun, 2021. "Demographic Transition for Economic Development in Taipei,China: Literature and Policy Implications," ADBI Working Papers 1222, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbiwp:1222
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/684811/adbi-wp1222.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2010. "Population Aging and Economic Growth in Asia," NBER Chapters, in: The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia, pages 61-89, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Daysal, N. Meltem & Lovenheim, Michael & Siersbæk, Nikolaj & Wasser, David N., 2021. "Home prices, fertility, and early-life health outcomes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    3. Nicole Maestas & Kathleen J. Mullen & David Powell, 2023. "The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force, and Productivity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 306-332, April.
    4. David A. Wise, 1994. "Studies in the Economics of Aging," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number wise94-1, March.
    5. Wen-Hsin Huang & Yen-Ju Lin & Hsien-Feng Lee, 2019. "Impact of Population and Workforce Aging on Economic Growth: Case Study of Taiwan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-13, November.
    6. Takatoshi Ito & Andrew Rose, 2010. "The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ito_08-2, March.
    7. Nicole Maestas & Kathleen J. Mullen & David Powell, 2016. "The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force and Productivity," NBER Working Papers 22452, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Charles I. Jones, 2022. "The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(11), pages 3489-3527, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Elena Nebolsina, 2020. "The Impact of Demographic Burden on Insurance Density," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(4), pages 21582440209, December.
    2. Park, Cyn-Young & Shin, Kwanho & Kikkawa, Aiko, 2021. "Aging, automation, and productivity in Korea1," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    3. Wen-Hsin Huang & Yen-Ju Lin & Hsien-Feng Lee, 2019. "Impact of Population and Workforce Aging on Economic Growth: Case Study of Taiwan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-13, November.
    4. Mamun, Shamsul Arifeen Khan & Rahman, Mohammad Mafizur & Khanam, Rasheda, 2020. "The relation between an ageing population and economic growth in Bangladesh: Evidence from an endogenous growth model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 14-25.
    5. Lee, Hyun-Hoon & Shin, Kwanho, 2019. "Nonlinear effects of population aging on economic growth," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1-1.
    6. Miao Zhang & Shibing You & Li Zhang & Houli Zhang & Yukun Wang, 2023. "Dynamic Analysis of the Effects of Aging on China’s Sustainable Economic Growth," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-16, March.
    7. Huang, Yi-Hou & Liang, Woan-lih & Truong, Quang-Thai & Wang, Yanzhi, 2022. "No new tricks for old dogs? Old directors and innovation performance," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    8. XU Peng, 2021. "Population Aging and Small Business Exits," Discussion papers 21091, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    9. Taehwan Rhee & Jacob Wood & Jungsuk Kim, 2022. "Digital Transformation as a Demographic and Economic Integrated Policy for Southeast Asian Developing Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-19, March.
    10. Fares Bounajm & Jean-Philippe Cayen & Michael Francis & Christopher Hajzler & Kristina Hess & Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle & Peter Selcuk, 2019. "Évaluation de la croissance de la production potentielle mondiale : avril 2019," Staff Analytical Notes 2019-13fr, Bank of Canada.
    11. Fanglin LI & Michael APPIAH & Regina Naa Amua DODOO, 2020. "The Effects Of Technology And Labor On Growth In Emerging Countries," Management Research and Practice, Research Centre in Public Administration and Public Services, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 12(2), pages 39-47, June.
    12. Kim, Hoolda & Song Lee, Bun, 2023. "Aging workforce, wages, and productivity: Do older workers drag productivity down in Korea?," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    13. Casper Worm Hansen & Holger Strulik, 2017. "Life expectancy and education: evidence from the cardiovascular revolution," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 421-450, December.
    14. Iñigo Calvo-Sotomayor & Ekhi Atutxa & Ricardo Aguado, 2020. "Who Is Afraid of Population Aging? Myths, Challenges and an Open Question from the Civil Economy Perspective," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-17, July.
    15. Ben Brewer & Karen Smith Conway & Jonathan C. Rork, 2022. "Do income tax breaks for the elderly affect economic growth?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(1), pages 7-27, January.
    16. Hershbein, Brad & Stuart, Bryan A., 2023. "Place-based consequences of person-based transfers: Evidence from recessions," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    17. Bekhtiar, Karim & Bittschi, Benjamin & Sellner, Richard, 2021. "Robots at Work? Pitfalls of Industry Level Data," IHS Working Paper Series 30, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    18. Ernest Kay Bakpa & Hu Xuhua & Abigail Konadu Aboagye, 2021. "Ghana’s economic growth: Directing our focus on the contributing influences of innovation activities and trade," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(4), pages 2213-2237, December.
    19. Katarzyna Maj-Waśniowska & Tomasz Jedynak, 2020. "The Issues and Challenges of Local Government Units in the Era of Population Ageing," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-23, June.
    20. Goh, Soo Khoon & McNown, Robert & Wong, Koi Nyen, 2020. "Macroeconomic implications of population aging: Evidence from Japan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    population aging; economic growth; net foreign assets; demographic policy; health care; Taipei; China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:adbiwp:1222. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ADB Institute (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/adbinjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.