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Belief-free Price Formation

Author

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  • Hörner, Johannes
  • Lovo, Stefano

Abstract

We analyze security price formation in a dynamic setting in which long-lived dealers repeatedly compete for trading with potentially informed retail traders. For a class of market microstructure models, we characterize equilibria in which dealers’ dynamic pricing strategies are optimal no matter the private information each dealer may possess. In a generalized version of the Glosten and Milgrom model, these equilibria deliver price dynamics reminiscent of well-known stylized facts: price/trading-flow correlation, volatility clustering, price bubble and inventory/inter-dealer trading correlation.

Suggested Citation

  • Hörner, Johannes & Lovo, Stefano, 2017. "Belief-free Price Formation," TSE Working Papers 17-790, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
  • Handle: RePEc:tse:wpaper:31598
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    File URL: https://www.tse-fr.eu/sites/default/files/TSE/documents/doc/by/horner/fev_2013.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Johannes Hörner & Stefano Lovo, 2009. "Belief-Free Equilibria in Games With Incomplete Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(2), pages 453-487, March.
    2. De Meyer, Bernard, 2010. "Price dynamics on a stock market with asymmetric information," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 42-71, May.
    3. Desgranges, Gabriel & Foucault, Thierry, 2005. "Reputation-based pricing and price improvements," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 57(6), pages 493-527.
    4. Riccardo Calcagno & Stefano Lovo, 2006. "Bid-Ask Price Competition with Asymmetric Information between Market-Makers," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(2), pages 329-355.
    5. Fudenberg, Drew & Maskin, Eric, 1986. "The Folk Theorem in Repeated Games with Discounting or with Incomplete Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(3), pages 533-554, May.
    6. Angeles de Frutos, M. & Manzano, Carolina, 2005. "Trade disclosure and price dispersion," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 183-216, May.
    7. Calcagno, Riccardo & Lovo, Stefano M., 1998. "Bid-Ask Price Competition with Asymmetric Information between Market Makers," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 1998012, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    8. Peter C. Reiss, 2005. "Anonymity, Adverse Selection, and the Sorting of Interdealer Trades," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(2), pages 599-636.
    9. Hadiza Moussa Saley & Bernard De Meyer, 2003. "On the strategic origin of Brownian motion in finance," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 31(2), pages 285-319.
    10. Katrina Ellis & Roni Michaely & Maureen O'Hara, 2002. "The Making of a Dealer Market: From Entry to Equilibrium in the Trading of Nasdaq Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2289-2316, October.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial Market Microstructure; Belief-free Equilibria; Informed Market Makers; Price Volatility;

    JEL classification:

    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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