Potential Growth in the EU : Prospects from Technical Progress and Eastern Enlargment
In sharp contrast with the buoyant economic dynamism observed in most other areas of the world, slow growth and persistently high unemployment have been characterizing the European Union (EU) economy for a number of years. This report investigates some of the possible causes of this poor macroeconomic performance, analyzing in depth the hypotheses of technological backwardness and of inappropriate economic policies, as major determinants of potential growth. It then proposes some contrasted scenarios for economic and social policies in the EU and explores, with the help of the INGENUE, overlappinggenerations, general-equilibrium model of the world economy, some of the possible long-term evolutions of economic growth and other macroeconomic indicators for various scenarios. In particular, we look at the aggregate economic consequences over the next decades of various ways in which the combination of policies being implemented and the recent enlargement of the European Union may affect the growth potential of the area. More specifically, among the many possible changes that may be forthcoming with this new EU enlargement, we simulate the changes in the time-path of macroeconomic variables resulting from the achievement of the “Lisbon strategy” objective of higher employment rates in the EU, from faster technological convergence of Eastern European economies towards Western European levels of total factor productivity (TFP), and from larger migration flows from Eastern European new members to the EU-15 countries. Although the consequences may in some cases be quite large for the enlarged EU economy, the induced effects on the rest of the world are, in all cases, relatively small, due to the small weight of Eastern Europe in the world economy and population.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Edward L. Glaeser & Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silane & Andrei Shleifer, 2004.
"Do Institutions Cause Growth?,"
NBER Working Papers
10568, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- North, Douglass C, 1994.
"Economic Performance through Time,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 84(3), pages 359-68, June.
- Karl Whelan, 2002.
"Computers, Obsolescence, And Productivity,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 84(3), pages 445-461, August.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, June.
- McMillin, W Douglas & Smyth, David J, 1994. "A Multivariate Time Series Analysis of the United States Aggregate Production Function," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 659-73.
- Mervyn King, 2004. "The Institutions of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 10400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andrew Rennison, 2003. "Comparing Alternative Output-Gap Estimators: A Monte Carlo Approach," Working Papers 03-8, Bank of Canada.
- Simon Gilchrist & John C. Williams, 2000.
"Putty-Clay and Investment: A Business Cycle Analysis,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(5), pages 928-960, October.
- Simon Gilchrist & John C. Williams, 1998. "Putty-clay and investment: a business cycle analysis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-30, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Simon Gilchrist & John C. Williams, 1998. "Putty-Clay and Investment: A Business Cycle Analysis," NBER Working Papers 6812, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Patrick Musso, 2004. "Productivity Slowdown and Resurgence. The Role of Capital Obsolescence," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 55(6), pages 1215-1239.
- Gordon, Robert J., 1990. "The Measurement of Durable Goods Prices," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226304557, July.
- Dale W. Jorgenson & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2000.
"Raising the Speed Limit: US Economic Growth in the Information Age,"
OECD Economics Department Working Papers
261, OECD Publishing.
- Dale W. Jorgenson & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2000. "Raising the Speed Limit: U.S. Economic Growth in the Information Age," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(1), pages 125-236.
- Evans, Paul & Karras, Georgios, 1994. "Is government capital productive? Evidence from a panel of seven countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 271-279.
- Stephen J. Turnovsky, 2000.
"The Transitional Dynamics Of Fiscal Policy; Long-Run Capital Accumulation And Growth,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2000
199, Society for Computational Economics.
- Turnovsky, Stephen J, 2004. "The Transitional Dynamics of Fiscal Policy: Long-Run Capital Accumulation and Growth," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(5), pages 883-910, October.
- Stephen Turnovsky, 2000. "The Transitional Dynamics of Fiscal Policy: Long-run Capital Accumulation and Growth," Working Papers 0018, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
- Stephen Turnovsky, 2002. "The Transitional Dynamics of Fiscal Policy: Long-run Capital Accumulation and Growth," Working Papers UWEC-2002-22-P, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
- Stephen Turnovsky, 2000. "The Transitional Dynamics of Fiscal Policy: Long-run Capital Accumulation and Growth," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0018, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
- Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005.
"Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market,"
Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173, March.
- Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 1991. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198284345, March.
- Mervyn King, 2004. "The Institutions of Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 1-13, May.
- Robert J. Gordon, 1990. "The Measurement of Durable Goods Prices," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gord90-1, September.
- Sapir, Andre & Aghion, Philippe & Bertola, Giuseppe & Hellwig, Martin & Pisani-Ferry, Jean & Rosati, Dariusz & Vinals, Jose & Wallace, Helen, 2004.
"An Agenda for a Growing Europe: The Sapir Report,"
Oxford University Press, number 9780199271498, March.
- André Sapir & Philippe Aghion & Giuseppe Bertola & Martin Hellwig & Jean Pisani-Ferry & Bernard Lange & José Viñals & Helen Wallace & Marco Buti & Mario Nava & Peter Smith, 2004. "An agenda for a growing Europe: the Sapir report," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/8070, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Eisner, Robert, 1994. "Real government saving and the future," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 111-126, March.
- Jérôme Creel, 2004.
"Le projet de Constitution européenne et la coordination des politiques économiques,"
Revue de l'OFCE,
Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 88(1), pages 119-150.
- Jérôme Creel, 2004. "Le projet de constitution européenne et la coordination des politiques économiques," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/3082, Sciences Po.
- Lindh, Thomas, 2000. "Productivity slowdown due to scarcity of capital to scrap in a putty-clay model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 225-233, November.
- Berndt, Ernst R & Hansson, Bengt, 1992. " Measuring the Contribution of Public Infrastructure Capital in Sweden," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 94(0), pages S151-68, Supplemen.
- Voss, Graham M., 2002. "Public and private investment in the United States and Canada," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 641-664, August.
- Ratner, Jonathan B., 1983. "Government capital and the production function for U.S. private output," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(2-3), pages 213-217.
- Merriman, David, 1991. "Public capital and regional output : Another look at some Japanese and American data," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 437-458, February.
- Michael Bleaney & Norman Gemmell & Richard Kneller, 2001. "Testing the endogenous growth model: public expenditure, taxation, and growth over the long run," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 34(1), pages 36-57, February.
- Sandrine Cazes & Alena Nesporova, 2004. "Labour markets in transition: balancing flexibility and security in Central and Eastern Europe," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 91(5), pages 23-54.
- Feldstein, Martin S & Foot, David K, 1971. "The Other Half of Gross Investment: Replacement and Modernization Expenditures," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(1), pages 49-58, February.
- Olivier Blanchard & Justin Wolfers, 1999.
"The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence,"
NBER Working Papers
7282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Blanchard, Olivier & Wolfers, Justin, 2000. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages C1-33, March.
- Otto, Glenn & Voss, Graham M, 1994. "Public Capital and Private Sector Productivity," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 70(209), pages 121-32, June.
- Matthieu LEMOINE & Odile CHAGNY, 2005. "Estimating the potential output of the euro area with a semi-structural multivariate Hodrick-Prescott filter," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 344, Society for Computational Economics.
- Kneller, Richard & Bleaney, Michael F. & Gemmell, Norman, 1999. "Fiscal policy and growth: evidence from OECD countries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 171-190, November.
- Robert A. Mundell, 1962. "The Appropriate Use of Monetary and Fiscal Policy for Internal and External Stability," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 9(1), pages 70-79, March.
- Cette, G. & De Bandt, O. & Garcia, S. & Saint-Guilhem, A. & Villetelle, J-P., 2003. "Actualisation des évaluations de croissance potentielle et d’écart de PIB," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 116, pages 45-56.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2500. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Spire @ Sciences Po Library)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.